Exchange rate 5 Flashcards
For convenience when conducting a financial appraisal of a project, we can select the X, t0, as the Y for the calculation of the relative price indices.
first year of the project
arbitrary reference point or base year
Using t0 as the base year, then both the values for IDt0 and IFt0 will be equal to X in that year. Hence, there will be no difference between the real and nominal
exchange rates in that Y.
one
base period
The real exchange rate will move through time because of shifts in the country’s X
demand and supply for foreign exchange
It is very difficult to predict the movement of the real exchange rate unless it is being
artificially maintained at a given level through tariffs or quantitative restrictions on either the supply or demand of foreign exchange
In some situations when the real exchange rate is believed to be currently either above or below its longer-term equilibrium level then
a trend in the real exchange rate for a limited number of years may be projected
The ratio of the two price indices is known as the
relative price index
If through time the domestic economy faces a rate of inflation different than that of foreign trading
partner, the relative price index will
vary over time
If the real exchange rate remains constant in the presence of inflation, then the change in the relative price index must result in a
the corresponding change in the market exchange rate.
Since the future real exchange rate is only likely to be known with some uncertainty, and the market exchange rate might not adjust instantaneously to changes in the rate of inflation, it is more realistic to allow some X in the estimation of the market exchange rate.
flexibility
This is carried out by assuming
a range for the distribution of possible real exchange rates around an expected mean real exchange rate.
Much of the published literature on project evaluation recommends the exclusion of inflation
from the appraisal process. These methods only account for projected changes in relative prices of i
Inputs and outputs over the life of the investment.
Correctly designing a project to accommodate both changes in X and Y may be crucial for its ultimate survival.
relative prices
changes in the rate of inflation
Improper accounting for the impacts of inflation
detrimental effects not only on the financial sustainability of a project but also on its economic viability
certain variables such as X need to be estimated in the current prices of the years they incur. (real price as well as inflation)
tax liabilities, cash requirements, interest, and debt repayments
X, on the other hand, tend to increase over time as the economy grows
Real wages
private opportunity costs of capital or the target financial rates of return used as X be expressed net of any compensation for the expected rate of inflation. In other words, these discount rates must be,
discount rates
real
most be real
private opportunity costs of capital or the target financial rates of return
If a nominal private cost of capital or target rate of return is used, the result will be a X for the expected changes in the general price level.
double correction
real financial prices for the input and output variables developed above are used as the base on which to estimate the X for the benefits and costs of the project.
economic values
The structure of the X statement should be similar to that of the financial cash flow statement. The difference between the two statements is analyzed to determine the impacts of the project on various stakeholders.
economic resource flow statement
A banker sees a project as an activity that generates X and absorbs Y.
tangible financial benefits
tangible financial resources
It disregards any distinctions in the sources of finance but asks the question whether the financial receipts generated from the operations of the project are sufficient to cover the investment and operating expenditures and to provide a sufficient return or not
A banker
are irrelevant to the banker.
The historical costs of existing assets
The banker typically has the first claim to the project’s ,
assets and net cash flows
the banker’s net cash flow is the project’s
gross receipts net of operating and investment expenditures
Unlike the banker, the owner adds the loan to the X as cash receipt, and subtracts payments of interest and loan repayment as cash outlays
net cash flows from the total investment point of view
the only difference between the analysis from the owner’s point of view and that from the banker’s point of view is
financing
The analysis from the government’s point of view is to ensure that the relevant government ministries have
enough resources to finance its obligations to the
project.
If the ministry is the project owner, then the distinction between the cash flow statements from the owner’s and the government point of view is the difference in their
opportunity costs of funds
economic appraisal of a project adjusts the financial cash flow from the total investment viewpoint for taxes and subsidies and ignores loan and interest payments because these represent flow of funds not
real resources
to insure approval and successful implementation a project must be attractive to all the
investors and operators associated with the project
just calculate for owner
loan and interest
calculate for all
opportunity cost of land
there will be no need for including exchange rates
if none of the project’s inputs are imported and none of its outputs are exported.
After all the required data have been recorded in the Table of Parameters,
a table of inflation and exchange rates is constructed.
The reference year for estimating inflation is usually taken as the X of the project’s life for convenience. As a result, the relative inflation index for the first year of the project will be equal to Y
first year
1.00
typically, the project analyst takes the
real exchange rate
Quantities sold should be multiplied by X to generate revenues. To determine the nominal price of an item, we first include changes in Y,
nominal prices
real prices
The working capital table typically includes two sections.
The first section includes the impacts of working capital on the cash flow statements of the project.
In the second section, the project analyst will estimate the initial working capital requirements for the project. This will be either financed through equity or through debt
the impacts of working capital on the cash flow statements of the project.
this includes the changes in accounts receivable, changes in accounts payable, and changes in cash balance
should be linked to nominal sales and/or purchases.
In the second section, the project analyst will estimate the initial working capital requirements for the project. This will be either financed through equity or through debt
This will be either financed through equity or through debt.