Exchange rate 5 Flashcards
For convenience when conducting a financial appraisal of a project, we can select the X, t0, as the Y for the calculation of the relative price indices.
first year of the project
arbitrary reference point or base year
Using t0 as the base year, then both the values for IDt0 and IFt0 will be equal to X in that year. Hence, there will be no difference between the real and nominal
exchange rates in that Y.
one
base period
The real exchange rate will move through time because of shifts in the country’s X
demand and supply for foreign exchange
It is very difficult to predict the movement of the real exchange rate unless it is being
artificially maintained at a given level through tariffs or quantitative restrictions on either the supply or demand of foreign exchange
In some situations when the real exchange rate is believed to be currently either above or below its longer-term equilibrium level then
a trend in the real exchange rate for a limited number of years may be projected
The ratio of the two price indices is known as the
relative price index
If through time the domestic economy faces a rate of inflation different than that of foreign trading
partner, the relative price index will
vary over time
If the real exchange rate remains constant in the presence of inflation, then the change in the relative price index must result in a
the corresponding change in the market exchange rate.
Since the future real exchange rate is only likely to be known with some uncertainty, and the market exchange rate might not adjust instantaneously to changes in the rate of inflation, it is more realistic to allow some X in the estimation of the market exchange rate.
flexibility
This is carried out by assuming
a range for the distribution of possible real exchange rates around an expected mean real exchange rate.
Much of the published literature on project evaluation recommends the exclusion of inflation
from the appraisal process. These methods only account for projected changes in relative prices of i
Inputs and outputs over the life of the investment.
Correctly designing a project to accommodate both changes in X and Y may be crucial for its ultimate survival.
relative prices
changes in the rate of inflation
Improper accounting for the impacts of inflation
detrimental effects not only on the financial sustainability of a project but also on its economic viability
certain variables such as X need to be estimated in the current prices of the years they incur. (real price as well as inflation)
tax liabilities, cash requirements, interest, and debt repayments
X, on the other hand, tend to increase over time as the economy grows
Real wages
private opportunity costs of capital or the target financial rates of return used as X be expressed net of any compensation for the expected rate of inflation. In other words, these discount rates must be,
discount rates
real