excess mortality Flashcards
what is excess mortality?
the number of deaths actually recorded being greater than the number expected of the basis of past data
what are biologists interested in terms of excess mortality?
health of individuals and population
what determines health?
what is ‘modifiable’?
what can we do and what’s best to change/improve health?
what are out challenges?
causality vs association
Association should not be confused with causality; if X causes Y, then the two are associated (dependent). However, associations can arise between variables in the presence (i.e., X causes Y) and absence (i.e., they have a common cause) of a causal relationship,
x causes y// y causes x
x and y are caused by 3rd factor (confounder)
x and y are associated only by artefact
x and y are associated by chance
*artefact= as a result of investigative procedure; not occurring naturally
what is a confounder?
A Confounder is an extraneous variable whose presence affects the variables being studied so that the results do not reflect the actual relationship between the variables under study.
what are risk factors?
something that increases your likelihood of getting disease
a risk factor is any characteristic, condition, or behaviour that increases the likelihood of developing a disease or health problem
the more risk factors you have, the higher your likelihood of developing chronic diseases
what are the two types of risk factors?
modifiable;
smoking, diet, physical activity, high blood pressure
non-modifiable;
age, family history, ethnicity
explain excess mortality in relation to scotland and glasgow.
excess mortality in scotland is higher than the rest of the UK.
most evident in glasgow, compared with socioeconomically similar UK cities.
the phenomenon is improving more slowly in Glasgow than rest of UK
(health is determined through complex and related factors)
observational vs experimental
Observational is where you observe certain variables and try to determine if there is any correlation. Experimental is where you control certain variables and try to determine if there is any causality.
what is epidemiology?
defined by WHO;
‘the study of the distribution and determinants of health-related states/events in specified populations and the application of this study to control of health problems’
how does physical activity relate to epidemiology?
most physical activity epidemiology is observational and shows associations between exposures and disease and further experimental data is needed to establish causality
what are the types of epidemiological evidence?
observational:
descriptive studies (case reports of case series)
analytical studies (correlational-ecological, cross sectional surveys, case control studies, cohort studies)
experimental:
(randomised control trials)
what is a randomised control trial?
A study in which a number of similar people are randomly assigned to 2 (or more) groups to test a specific drug, treatment or other intervention.
what is a cohort study?
Cohort studies are a type of longitudinal study—an approach that follows research participants over a period of time (often many years). Specifically, cohort studies recruit and follow participants who share a common characteristic, such as a particular occupation or demographic similarity.
what is a case-control study?
A study that compares two groups of people: those with the disease or condition under study (cases) and a very similar group of people who do not have the disease or condition (controls).
what is a cross-sectional survey?
Cross-sectional studies are observational studies that analyse data from a population at a single point in time. They are often used to measure the prevalence of health outcomes, understand determinants of health, and describe features of a population.
what is a correlational (ecological) study?
A correlational research design investigates relationships between two variables (or more) without the researcher controlling or manipulating any of them. It’s a non-experimental type of quantitative research
what are case reports of case series?
A case report is a detailed report of the diagnosis, treatment, response to treatment, and follow-up after treatment of an individual patient. A case series is group of case reports involving patients who were given similar treatment.
what can minimise confounding variables?
There are several methods you can use to decrease the impact of confounding variables on your research: restriction, matching, statistical control, and randomisation. In restriction, you restrict your sample by only including certain subjects that have the same values of potential confounding variables.
what is reverse causality?
becomes a possibility when the “effect” of something could actually be its cause. For example, some studies have observed that diet soda drinkers are more likely to be obese than people who don’t drink diet soda.
what can minimise reverse causality?
Temporal sequence
To eliminate the potential of the variables being reverse causation, look to see if the exposure precedes the outcome.
what is the criteria for causality with epidemiological evidence?
appropriately sequenced; does the measure of physical activity/fitness/sedentary behaviour precede onset of disease?
plausibility; is the association consistent with other knowledge?
consistency; are findings consistent in different populations?
strength; what is the strength of association between the causal factor and the effect (what is the relative risk)?
dose-response; are increased levels of physical activity or fitness associated with greater effect?
reversibility; is a reduction in activity levels/fitness associated with an increase in disease risk
strong study design; are the findings based on strong study designs?
what is considered the gold-standard study design?
randomised controlled trial.
The randomised controlled trial (RCT) is considered to provide the most reliable evidence on the effectiveness of interventions because the processes used during the conduct of an RCT minimise the risk of confounding factors influencing the results.
The main purpose of random assignment is to prevent selection bias by distributing the characteristics of patients that may influence the outcome randomly between the groups, so that any difference in outcome can be explained only by the treatment.
why it is difficult to do RCTs (randomised controlled trials) evaluating the effects of health behaviours on hard disease outcomes?
Health promotion programs cannot be expected to produce changes in “hard” disease outcomes within a short time frame; therefore, randomized controlled trials are not practical.
criteria used to evaluate strength of evidence in ACSM position stand on exercise and physical activity for older adults.
evidence level
A; overwhelming evidence for randomised controlled trials and/or observational studies, which provides a consistent pattern of findings on the basis of substantial data
B; strong evidence from a combination of randomised controlled trials and/or observational studies but with some studies showing results that are inconsistent with the overall conclusion
C; generally positive or suggestive evidence from a smaller number of observational studies and/or uncontrolled/nonrandomised trials
D; panel consensus judgement that the strength of the evidence is insufficient to place it in categories A->C