Examples Flashcards
Examples of Transition risks
Technology lags in developing countries
Changes to capacity and reliability
Skills availabilities
Decrease in markets value or share
Reputation risks
Legal risk
policy risk
3 limitations of ISO 31000
- not designed for complex systems
- focuses on moderate complexity
- Quest for comprehensiveness is unattainable
6 techniques for identifying risks
- Data based - historical analysis and lit review
- Expert based - brainstorming and interviews
- Model based - physical testing (in lab) and numerical modelling
- Divide system into smaller parts
- Encourage imaginative thinking
- Checklist, classification and taxonomies
6 techniques for analysing risk
- Event Tree Analysis: graphical flow of events and associated probabilities
- Fault tree analysis: Starts with fault and looks at what could lead to it
- Bow Tie Analysis:
Hazards to event (FTA) then event to consequences (ETA) - Influence diagrams and bayesian networks
- markov models
- monte carlo simulations / general simulations
5 Techniques for evaluating risk significance and acceptability
- ALARP
- Risk Indices (Overall scores, i.e., bushfire scores)
- Risk bearing capacity
- Cost/benefit analysis
- Globally at least equivalent (increase and decrease in risks from an action are even)
4 Techniques for selecting between options
- Cost benefit
- Decision Tree
- Multi-criteria analysis
- Game Theory
4 techniques to report risks
- Risk register
- Consequence/likelihood matrix
- S-curves
- Bow-tie diagrams
Give examples of paleo climate evidence
Tree rings
ice cores
ocean sediment
List examples of contextual factors for risk (5 options)
- imposed or voluntary risk?
- natural or man-made?
- by whom is the risk run?
- balance & distribution of benefits and risks
- Availability of alternatives
List examples of methods that can be used for risk assessments of highly complex issues
- climate model ensembles
What should be considered when using classification?
Benefits: reduces complexity, can increase understanding, make communication easier, help identify similarities and differences
Limits: May be convenient but not always true, categories are static, can be too big or small to be helpful
Discuss the limitation of climate models (3)
- very complex with assumptions and hypotheses
- temperature mechanism well understood, water less so
- resolution and representation in GCM does not align with systems to which it is applied
Difference between weather and climate models in term of four each categories
Time: Weather is daily, climate is long term
Simulation length: Weather is short, climate is long
Source of uncertainty: Initial conditions for weather, boundary conditions for climate
Resolution: High for weather, low for climate
Difference between integrated assessment models and GCMs
IAMs: combine the main aspects of the economy and society with the biosphere and atmosphere.
GCMs: focus on biosphere and atmosphere
Given examples of downscaling methods
- Change factor method
- statistical downscaling
- dynamical downscaling
