Definitions Flashcards
List 4 of 7 definitions for Risk
- Uncertainty that can be measured or quantified probabilistically
- The expected loss: probability x severity
- the effect of uncertainty on objectives
- potential for adverse consequences
- An unwanted event that may or may not occur
- Cause of an unwanted event that may or may not occur
- Probability of an unwanted event that may or may not occur
Define Climate Risk
Uncertainties generates due to changes in the climate
Changes in the probabilities of events due to changes in climate
Physical Climate Risks
They can be acute or chronic risks.
Risks associated with the impacts of climate change.
EXAMPLE: damage to property and infrastructure due to extreme weather
Transition Climate Risks
Risks related to the transition to a low-carbon economy / to solutions to mitigate climate change.
EXAMPLE: Change in the reliability of energy supply with transition to renewables
Define Risk Analysis
to develop an understanding between the cause, event and consequences
Define Risk Evaluation
Determine what the risk means to and whether it is acceptable for stakeholders.
Evaulating significance and acceptability
Define Risk Assessment
A process used to determine the
Define abductive reasoning
also known as backward reasoning
- to what extent did X cause Y
Define inductive reasoning
The process of making general conclusions from a ‘population or process’ from empirical data
Define deductive reasoning
Involves making an inference based on widely accepted facts or premises
Define a General Circulation Model (GCM)
Uses the primitive equations to compute atmospheric motion simulating large scale fluid dynamics. Can be used for weather or climate modelling
Define Climate Sensitivity
to describe to what extent rising levels of greenhouse gases affect the Earth’s temperature
Define Paleo climate Evidence
Refers to data scientists use to study past climates. Include:
- tree rings
- ice cores
- ocean and lake sediments
Define climate model ensembles
a group of climate model simulations that are used to study climate scenarios and predict future climate projections.
Define Deep Uncertainty
Occurs when there is a lack of cohesive views on a topic from stakeholders. There is no knowledge on what outcomes could be or their associated probabilties.
Define Knightian Uncertainty
Lack of quantifiable knowledge about some possible uncertainty -> it is impossible to predict or quantify the likelihood
Define the 4 Axioms of probability
- The probability of any event is between 0 and 1
- The probability of an exhaustive event is 1
- For mutual exclusive events, the probability of A and B occurring is the sum of the P(A) and P(B).
- The conditional probability is written as:
P(B|A) = P(A)xP(B)/P(A)
What is a probability density function
A function whose value at any given sample in the sample space can be interpreted as providing a relative likelihood that the value of the random variable would be equal to that sample
define likelihood function
Explains the likelihood of a model producing the same outcome under a different set of parameters.
define subjectivist probability
Is an expression of a rational agent’s degree of belief about uncertainty propositions.
define frequentist theory
Frequency with which that event would be observed over an infinite number of repeated experiments. Assumes a repeatable experiment and that it is a material property of the object
Probability theory v statistical theory
ANSWER
Define a bayesian network serial connection
A connects to B which connects to C
When hard evidence about B is known, connection between A and C is blocked.
Define a bayesian network diverging connection
A is parent node of B and C.
Evidence between B and C is blocked if there is hard evidence about A
