Definitions

Question 1

List 4 of 7 definitions for Risk

Answer 1

1. Uncertainty that can be measured or quantified probabilistically
2. The expected loss: probability x severity
3. the effect of uncertainty on objectives
4. potential for adverse consequences
5. An unwanted event that may or may not occur
6. Cause of an unwanted event that may or may not occur
7. Probability of an unwanted event that may or may not occur

Question 2

Define Climate Risk

Answer 2

Uncertainties generates due to changes in the climate

Changes in the probabilities of events due to changes in climate

Question 3

Physical Climate Risks

Answer 3

They can be acute or chronic risks.

Risks associated with the impacts of climate change.

EXAMPLE: damage to property and infrastructure due to extreme weather

Question 4

Transition Climate Risks

Answer 4

Risks related to the transition to a low-carbon economy / to solutions to mitigate climate change.

EXAMPLE: Change in the reliability of energy supply with transition to renewables

Question 5

Define Risk Analysis

Answer 5

to develop an understanding between the cause, event and consequences

Question 6

Define Risk Evaluation

Answer 6

Determine what the risk means to and whether it is acceptable for stakeholders.

Evaulating significance and acceptability

Question 7

Define Risk Assessment

Answer 7

A process used to determine the

Question 8

Define abductive reasoning

Answer 8

also known as backward reasoning
- to what extent did X cause Y

Question 9

Define inductive reasoning

Answer 9

The process of making general conclusions from a ‘population or process’ from empirical data

Question 10

Define deductive reasoning

Answer 10

Involves making an inference based on widely accepted facts or premises

Question 11

Define a General Circulation Model (GCM)

Answer 11

Uses the primitive equations to compute atmospheric motion simulating large scale fluid dynamics. Can be used for weather or climate modelling

Question 12

Define Climate Sensitivity

Answer 12

to describe to what extent rising levels of greenhouse gases affect the Earth’s temperature

Question 13

Define Paleo climate Evidence

Answer 13

Refers to data scientists use to study past climates. Include:
- tree rings
- ice cores
- ocean and lake sediments

Question 14

Define climate model ensembles

Answer 14

a group of climate model simulations that are used to study climate scenarios and predict future climate projections.

Question 15

Define Deep Uncertainty

Answer 15

Occurs when there is a lack of cohesive views on a topic from stakeholders. There is no knowledge on what outcomes could be or their associated probabilties.

Question 16

Define Knightian Uncertainty

Answer 16

Lack of quantifiable knowledge about some possible uncertainty -> it is impossible to predict or quantify the likelihood

Question 17

Define the 4 Axioms of probability

Answer 17

1. The probability of any event is between 0 and 1
2. The probability of an exhaustive event is 1
3. For mutual exclusive events, the probability of A and B occurring is the sum of the P(A) and P(B).
4. The conditional probability is written as:
   P(B|A) = P(A)xP(B)/P(A)

Question 18

What is a probability density function

Answer 18

A function whose value at any given sample in the sample space can be interpreted as providing a relative likelihood that the value of the random variable would be equal to that sample

Question 19

define likelihood function

Answer 19

Explains the likelihood of a model producing the same outcome under a different set of parameters.

Question 20

define subjectivist probability

Answer 20

Is an expression of a rational agent’s degree of belief about uncertainty propositions.

Question 21

define frequentist theory

Answer 21

Frequency with which that event would be observed over an infinite number of repeated experiments. Assumes a repeatable experiment and that it is a material property of the object

Question 22

Probability theory v statistical theory

Answer 22

ANSWER

Question 23

Define a bayesian network serial connection

Answer 23

A connects to B which connects to C
When hard evidence about B is known, connection between A and C is blocked.

Question 24

Define a bayesian network diverging connection

Answer 24

A is parent node of B and C.
Evidence between B and C is blocked if there is hard evidence about A

Question 25

Define a bayesian network converging connection

Answer 25

B and C are parents of A.
Any evidence about A results in information transmitted between B and C.

Question 26

Define Type 1 error and Type 2 error

Answer 26

Type 1 error is false positive
Type 2 error is false negative

Question 27

Define the tragedy of commons

Answer 27

If many people enjoy unfettered access to a finite, valuable resource such as a pasture, they will tend to overuse it and may end up destroying its value altogether.

Question 28

Define Common but Differentiated Responsibilities

Answer 28

Principle of international environmental law establishing that all states are responsible for addressing global environmental destruction yet not equally responsible

Question 29

Define climate realism

Answer 29

The skill of the method to produce simulations that resemble observed climate, in terms of: magnitude, distributional qualities, spatial and temporal qualities

Question 30

Define physical plausibility of change

Answer 30

The credibility we give a method at capturing all aspects of a changing climate under climate change.

Question 31

Define resilience (5 definitions possible)

Answer 31

1. The ability to continue operations or recover a stable state after a major mishap or event
2. the capacity of an entity to prepare for and recover from shocks and stresses and to adapt and grow from a disruptive experience
3. the ability of systems to prevent or adapt to changing conditions in order to maintain (control over) a system property
4. the ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from and more successfully adapt to adverse events
5. the ability of a system to adjust its function prior to, during or following changes and disturbances so that it can sustain required operations under unexpected and expected conditions

Question 32

Define precariousness

Answer 32

how close the current state of the system is to a limit

Question 33

Define latitude

Answer 33

Maximum amount of change a system can under before losing its ability to recover

Question 34

Define resistance

Answer 34

the ease or difficulty of changing the system

Question 35

Define panarchy

Answer 35

because of cross-scale interactions, the resilience of a system at a particular focal
scale will depend on the influences from states and dynamics at scales above and below

Question 36

Define specific resilience

Answer 36

The ability of a system to prepare for, recover from and adapt to specific shocks or perturbations. For example, drought resilience.
Specific resilience is easier to analyse

Question 37

Define general resilience

Answer 37

Capacity of the system to deal with unidentified shocks

Question 38

Define Aleatory Uncertainty

Answer 38

Uncertainty due to a random process

Question 39

Define Epistemic Uncertainty

Answer 39

Uncertainty due to lack of knowledge