Exam Questions 2022: Voting Behaviour

Question 1

Give three recency (short-term) factors that influence the way people vote in US elections

Answer 1

• Incumbency - e.g. 96% re-election rate, in Congress, in 2020 - they have an established support and donor base - though incumbency does not guarantee re-election - Bill Nelson was defeated irrespective of the $118 million spent during campaign.
• Valence Issues - ‘rally around the flag’ - e.g. Bush’s approval rates went up to 90% after 9/11 - successful in 2004 election - declined following Hurricane Katrina to 38% by Nov. 2005
• Political adverts - attack candidates rather than parties - e.g. Obama’s ‘remember’ advert lauded his commitment to renewable energy and attacked Mitt Romney by claiming he was ‘in the pocket’ of large oil companies.

Question 2

What percentage of African-Americans and Hispanics voted Democrats in 2020?

Answer 2

African-Americans - 87%

Hispanics - 65%

Question 3

Which parties are typically favoured by women and men respectively?

Answer 3

Women - Dems - 57% favoured Biden in 2020

Men - GOP - 63% favoured Trump in 2020

Question 4

Which religious group typically support the Republican party?

Answer 4

White evangelicals - 76% supported Trump in 2020 - regardless of Trump’s waver from strict Christian marriage traditions - policy platform more relevant consideration than personality?

Question 5

Non-religious individuals tend to favour which party?

Answer 5

Democratic party - 65% of non-religious people favoured Biden in 2020.

Question 6

How does wealth influence voting behaviour in US elections?

Answer 6

Under $50,000 - 55% supported Biden (2020)

Over $100,000- 57% supported Trump (2020)

Question 7

How does age affect voting behaviour?

Answer 7

Under 30 - 60% supported Biden

Over 65 - 52% supported Trump

Question 8

Give some data regarding the variation in voting behaviour on the basis of political philosophy.

Answer 8

85% of self-proclaimed conservatives supported Trump.

89% of self-proclaimed liberals supported Biden

Question 9

What percentage of homosexual individuals voted Democrat in 2020?

Answer 9

64% of homosexuals supported Biden in 2020.

Question 10

How does geography influence voting behaviour?

Answer 10

60% of those in a town with more than 50,000 people supported the Democratic party.

57% of ‘small town’ folk voted Republican.

Question 11

How could the rational theory be used to compare the voting behaviour of the US and UK electorates regarding ethnicity?

Answer 11

US: - African-Americans largely favour the Democratic party - rose from 88% in 2004 to 94% in 2008 - possibility of the first African-American president.

UK: - BAME individuals typically favour the Labour party - possibly due to Enoch Powell’s ‘Rivers of Blood’ speech in 1968 - plagued the Con. party as being ‘anti-minority’.

Question 12

How could the rational theory be used to compare the voting behaviour of the US and UK electorates regarding age.

Answer 12

US: those over 65 typically favour the republican party - 53% in 2016 - possibly due to the more individualistic nature of a person with children, who also have children - the prioritise shifts to favour the family rather than society as a whole.

UK: - crossover point at which voting Conservative becomes more likely is 39 - also due to the more individualistic mindset that comes with family.

Question 13

How could the rational theory be used to compare the voting behaviour of the electorates in the US and UK regarding gender?

Answer 13

US: - Typically women support the Democratic party - 54% of women voted Clinton in 2016 - possibility of the first female president - Trump’s flagrant remarks about women in his ‘October surprise’.

UK: - originally said to have voted Conservative - 1970 election was said to have been swung by the ‘housewives’ - though now the split it less so - 44% of women voted Con in 2019.

Question 14

In 2016, what percentage of males voted Republican compared to how many women voted Clinton?

Answer 14

52% of males supported Trump.

54% of women voted Clinton.

Possibly due to Clinton potentially being the first female P. And due to Trump’s ‘October surprise’.

Question 15

What percentage of African-Americans supported the Democratic party in 2016?

Answer 15

89% of African-Americans voted Clinton in 2016. Down from 94% in 2008.

Question 16

Describe the trend in Hispanic voters swinging to the Republicans.

Answer 16

Hispanics supporting Republican has dropped from 43% in 2004 to 28% in 2016.

Question 17

How did those in the ‘Rust-belt’ vote in 2016?

Answer 17

Blue-collar, working class people from the region found Trump appealing - allowing him to gather 86 EC votes from the region.

Question 18

How did education influence voting behaviour in 2016?

Answer 18

71% of non-college, white males voted Trump compared to 23% for Clinton.

Question 19

How did geography influence voting behaviour in 2016?

Answer 19

Republicans secured a 27% majority in small towns e.g. Wayne County - 99% White - 14% below poverty level - 71% vote Trump.

Question 20

How did religion influence voting behaviour in 2016?

Answer 20

56% of those who said they attended a religious ceremony weekly voted Republican

62% of those who said they rarely attended a religious ceremony voted Democrat.

Question 21

What are primacy factors in relation to voting behaviour?

Answer 21

Long-term factors i.e. those that remain roughly the same regardless of the election. E.g. geography, class, age, religion, ethnicity.

Question 22

What are recency factors?

Answer 22

Short-term factors i.e. those that only exist for the one election. E.g. personality of the candidates, valence issues or campaign methodology.

Question 23

What is the effect of recency factors?

Answer 23

They capture ‘floating voters’ (those who are uncommitted to a party) and influence the way they vote.

Question 24

How did Jews vote in the 2012 election?

Answer 24

69% of Jewish people voted Democrat. Perhaps as they see themselves as a minority and therefore feel the Democratic party will best represent their interests.