Exam 3 Flashcards
environmental hazards are…
things that affect physical safety and are economically destructive
risks are…
evaluations of those hazards and estimated probability of consequences
Key elements of risk?
1.) anticipation
2.) decision
What is the probability distribution of risk?
Outcome–> unknown
probability distribution–> known
Uncertainty is?
degree to which outcomes are unkown
What is the probability distribution of uncertainty?
outcome–> unknown
probability distribution –> unknown
What are the conditions of knowledge?
1.) Certainty (known, knowns)
2.) Risk (known, unknowns)
3.) Uncertainty (unknown, unknowns)
Expected utility theory is?
rational decision is made & is unbiased
Prospect theory is?
behavioral as opposed to rational & is biased
What theory has higher “expected value”?
utility theory
what theory has agents that reveal “loss aversion”?
prospect
What is risk perception?
how people evaluate hazards based on biases and cultures and such
NAME THE 5 bias influences and what they mean!
1.) Choice- who decides who is exposed?
2.) Control- can the risk be controlled by ourselves or someone we trust?
3.) Observability- can the risks or the effects be seen or measured?
4.) Latency- is there a delay between cause and effects?
5.) Potential for catastrophe- how many people would be affected and to what extent?
What are the qualities of underestimating a risk?
- voluntary
- trusted source controlled
- obervable
- immediate effects
- common, non-catastrophic
what are the qualities of overestimating a risk?
- involuntary
- non-trusted source controlled
- unobservable
- delayed effects
- rare, catastrophic