Evaluating Success - China NI Flashcards
NS: Protection of Borders, Taiwan
Pragmatic Goal
maintain status quo by preventing Taiwanese independence
NS: Protection of Borders, Taiwan
Idealistic Goal
Reunification/maintain territorial integrity
NS: Protection of Borders, Taiwan
Military Actions
Grey Zone Tactics:
- strategic placement of permanent missiles facing Taiwan across the strait, in 2017 est. 1,600
- March 2017: Dongfeng 16 missiles pointed at Taiwan
- April 2018: live fire drills across strait
- 2018 PLA AF flew fighter jets around Taiwan
- Oct 2021: on National Day weekend dispatched 149 milit aircraft (Taiwan had to activate def systems)
- 2021: 950 incursions into Taiwan ADIZ
NS: Protection of Borders, Taiwan
Economic Actions
Econ Interdependance:
- Taiwan’s #1 trading partner,
- China = 30% of Taiwan’s trade
- Taiwan’s #1 export market (2020: 44% of exports)
- over last 20 years, Taiwanese investment in China = $188bil
- 2020: $38bil investment from Taiwan (more employment)
NS: Protection of Borders, Taiwan
Diplomatic Actions
Starve Taiwan of international space
- blocked from joining WHO
- 2016 - 2023: 9 states switched recognition
- 2016: São Tomé and Príncipe switch after $210mil
- Sept 2019: offer aeroplane + funds to Kiribati
- 2019: Solomon Islands switch after (disputed) $500mil offer from China
- March 2023 Honduras switch after negotiations w China to built hydroelectric dam
NS: Protection of Borders, Taiwan
Outcomes? Peaceful reunification less likely
- only 10% of taiwanese favour reunification
- 80% of Taiwanese reject ‘one country two systems’
- 2020 re-election of DPP
- the 2013 Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement never ratified (after sunflower student movement protests) (AKA anxiety around econ interdependance)
NS: Protection of Borders, Taiwan
Outcomes? Taiwanese independence less likely
- only 6% want immediate independance
- loss of international support (only 12 states have formal relations)
- DPP no policies on independence
NS: Protection of Borders, South China Sea
goal?
Have other states recognise sov claims +
exert full sovereign control over 9-dash line
NS: Protection of Borders, South China Sea
Military Actions
Militarisation of SCS
- Spratlys: 3,200 acres of new land since 2013, 3 airstrips built, 2018: cruise missiles, surface to air missiles, 2020: new local govt
- Woody Islands: fighter jets, cruise missiles, radar system to, 2016: surface to air missiles
- Paracels: Oct 2015: PLA station J-11 fighter aircraft , 2020: new local govt
- March 2018: naval drills in SCS, up to 40 subs
- Thith island (Philippines occupied) 2019 200 ships nearby
- April 2020: sink Vietnamese fishing boat
- Whitsun reef (Philippines claimed): 2021 200 vesseles moored
- By march 2022 fully militarised 3 islands
NS: Protection of Borders, South China Sea
Economic/Aid Actions
Vanuatu:
- 2nd largest aid donor, spent a total of $243mil, Lots of high-profile symbolic projects eg. PM office building, parliamentary building, major sports stadium.
Philippines:
- Oct 2016: New Pres Duterte visit China … he announces realignment with China, his trade secretary said $13.5bil of trade deals would be signed…drop UNCLOS case… 2017: Duterte lobbying and then ASEAN drop SCS dispute
NS: Protection of Borders, South China Sea
Diplomatic Actions
Philippines:
- Oct 2016: New Pres Duterte visit China … he announces realignment with China, his trade secretary said $13.5bil of trade deals would be signed…drop UNCLOS case… 2017: Duterte lobbying and then ASEAN drop SCS disputes
Malaysia:
- Nov 2016: PM visit China + sign agreement to cooperate in SCS
NS: Protection of Borders, South China Sea
Outcome
Not obtained un-challenged sov
- UNCLOS ruling
- June 2022: New Pres Marcos of Philippines says “will not lose one inch of territory)
- more US military presence (March 2023 Philippines expand US access to milit bases)
Hw/ Reduced threat of other actors exerting sov in area:
- ASEAN drop all complaints 2017
- Vanuatu recognises China claims in SCS and island building,
- Philippines dropped UNCLOS + Duterte cancelled visit to disputed island in Philippines territory (2017)
RR: Regional Hegemony
goals
Regional Hegemony
Mutually Beneficial r/ships
Power Projection in region
RR: Regional Hegemony, power projection under Trump
gaining non-traditional allies: Japan
- Nov 2014: Shinzo Abe + Xi meet and reach 4-point agreement to improve dip + security ties
- 2018: 40 year anniversary of Japan-China treaty, japan makes statements indicating desire for improved ties
- 2019: Shinzo Abe meet Xi, sign $2.6bil business deals + currency swap + agreement to accelerate cooperation for a “new era”
RR: Regional Hegemony, power projection under Trump
gaining non-traditional allies: South Korea
- Sept 2015: Pres Park attend milit parade in Tiannamen Square (only US-ally to do so), stood 2 persons away (23 heads of state there) + had lunch with Xi
- Dec 2015: FTA signed… tariffs on 5,800 products
- Bilateral trade worth $300bil pa
- Oct 2017 Pres Moon Jae-In 3 nos’s: freeze THAAD deployment, x join tripartite milit alliance w US, Japan, x join US missile def system
- Dec 2017: Pres visit China, pledge ‘new era’ .. Chinese tour groups to SK recommence
“[3nos] SK has effectively agreed to show greater deference to China” - Kristian McGuire - Chinese Jets regulary violate SK ADIZ
RR: Regional Hegemony, power projection under Trump
gaining non-traditional allies: Philippines
- Oct 2016: Pres Duterte visit China and announce ‘separation’ from US and realignment with China
- Dec 2016: Duterte announce to ‘set aside’ UNCLOS ruling
- Duterte cancelled visit to disputed island in Philippines territory (2017)
RR: Regional Hegemony,
outcome: Soft Power deficit so re-engage w Biden’s US
gained non-trad allies under Trump
But bc soft-power deficit when US willing to re-engage, the r/ships diminished:
- SK milit build up including US air-carrier
- SK: Moon participates in Biden summit for Demo
- SK signed G7 (as guest) Open Societies Stance implicitly targeting China
- SK feel threatened by China (THAAD, Jets regulary violate ADIZ)
- March 202: Jap-US foreign + def ministers meet
- US-Jap joint investment into 5G (2022)
- 2022: New PM Suga visit US + reafirrm importance of Taiwan security, ECS, SCS, HR concerns
- march 2023: Philippines expand US access to milit bases
RR: Regional Hegemony,
outcome: The econ interdependence mean “de-coupling” hard eg.
- SK: 2022 pres Suk-Yool want to re-kindle w US hw/ hasn’t done anything + still has diplomatic relations
- Japan starts 2022 New Defence Strategy to curb excessive dependance on specific countries.
IS: Great Responsible Power
Goals
shift from defensive dip to proactive diplomacy, need for trade links, exert greater influence w development, great power status
IS: exert greater influence w development
actions, BRI
- China + 138 states have signed memorandum of understanding, encompass 40% of world GDP, 63% of population,
- 2019 white paper for new model of devp.
- 18 in EU, 25 in eats asia, 39 in SSA
- written into constitution
- approx 2,600 projects in 100 countries
- estimated to life 70mil out of pov
- strategic tool to counter ‘Pivot to Asia’
- protector of free trade against Trump
IS: defensive to proactive diplomacy
actions, WWD vs pandas, korean peninsula
Negative:
- 2018 APEC summit diplomats harassed PNG foreign minister after mis-interpretation of statement
- 2019: Ambassador said in Sweden “treat our enemies with shotguns” (then condemned by all parties)
- 78% in the west (pew survey) x confidence in China leadership
Positive:
- donates the most to UN peacekeepers
- 2016: US + china co-draft UNSC expansion of sanctiosn due to more NK tests
- Aug 2017: support res. 2371 to ban all exports of coal, iron, lead
- 2017: Ger get 2 pandas for “new beginning” (ultimate diplomatic gesture)
- 2018: Finland get 2 after one china policy
- 2017: 70 pandas in 20 countries
IS: general
actions, FOCAC / Africa
- 80,000 African students in China 2018
- biggest provider of scholarships (16% sponsored)
- FOCAC is every 3 years, largest regular diplomatic gathering on african leaders
- high ranking delegation from 50 African states attending seminars in China
IS: general
actions, cultural pursuits/ improve soft power
- export approach to development
- educational exchanges: 440,000 students from 205 states in China in 2016
- 3rd amount of int students in world
- 541 Confucius institutes in the world
- expansion of global media: china global tv netwwork has 6 diff channels in diff language
IS: outcome
more influence in africa
- 63% of African’s view china’s influence as positive (2021 pew study)
- increase in ppl to ppl connections thru study
- China is the preffered development model for Botswana, Mali, Burkina faso
IS: outcome
actions, distrust from West.
- China secretly pays for China radio international for 33 stations in 14 countries (breach voulantartianism)
- Confuscius institutes seen as prop eg. closures in France, UK, Sweden, San Diego, + 2019 Aus launch investigation to see if breach anti-foreign interference laws
- paid $19mil for advertising in US newspapers, deals w 30 int newspapers
Pew Study 2021: - few have confidence in Xi
- trend of choosing ties w US over China
- % of ppl w unfavourable view: 2014 - 2021(SK 42 - 77) (UK 38 - 63) (France 53 - 66)
- favour us over china: 61% vs 27%
EP: goal
continue to pursue econ growth target (5% pa)
2021 goal: x2 gdp pa from 2010
2049: well-off, production to consumer econ
EP: actions
trade
- SK largest trading partner, bilateral trade w worth $300bil pa, finding market for consumer goods
- 2014: bilateral diplomacy + on-going fta negotations
- no 1 trading partner of Japan
- “military action [in taiwan] would lead to econ suicide” dec 2021 from retired pm shinzo abe
- 2019 shinzo visit china + sign $2.6bil of trade deals + currency swap deal
- taiwan stuff
- SCS: has est. 11bil barrels of oil + 190trillion cubic ft of natural gas, $5.3tril in trade pass thru pa
- BRI
- milit actions in SCS
EP: obstacles to goals
- high levels of debt, exacerbated by SOE (the avg return of assets is triple in priv than SOE, double profit margin)
- budget deficit is growing
- economy is slowing
- demographic challenges
- unfulfilled middle class expectations
- BRI: lack of trsut eg slow negotations w India, 2/3 states have credit rankings below investable grades (pakistan)
Good - ## BRI loans made Cambodia +Philippines switch ties to china
