Evaluate the view that the outcomes of general elections are stable and predictable. Flashcards
Introduction - Themes
- Media
- Voting Patterns
- Opinion Polls
Introduction - Argument
There are voting trends and indicators of what the outcome of elections will be, however, these fail to account for swing voters - this group decide outcomes and are neither predictable nor stable
Media - Disagree - Point
The Media is said to have massive influence over the outcome of elections, whether the media supports or dislikes a leader or their party often means they will lose a general election
Media - Disagree - Examples
- Ed Miliban was torn apart by the media in the run up to the 2015 general election after phots emerged of him eating a bacon sandwhich - these photos made it clear he was going to lose
- After the 1992 general election, The Sun newspaper claimed ‘It Was The Sun Wot Won It’ after they had run a very damaging campaign against Neil Kinnock
Media - Agree - Point
Just because the media is unsupportive of certain candidates or parties does not always mean they will perform badly. The media can have limited influence or is only tailored to their readership’s opinions
Media - Agree - Examples
- During the general election newspapers align with certain parties - The Times and The Telegraph are Conservative with The Guardian often endorsing Labour
- The only newspaper to endorse Corbyn in 2017 was The Mirror, yet he still came out with 40% of the popular vote
Voting Trends - Disagree - Point
There are certain voting trends which are always evident after the results of elections. It is these voting trends that make the outcome of election seem stable and predictable
Voting Trends - Disagree - Examples
- Age is the most accurate predictor of how someone will vote - in 2019, Corbyn only won one age category and that was the 18-24 age group.
- Ethnicity is also a strong indicator of how a person will vote. In 2019, 64% of ethnic minorities voted for Labour compared to only 20% for Conservative
Voting Trends - Agree - Point
Despite the existence of voting trends, it is often single issues that will define the outcome of elections and these are incredibly unpredictable
Voting Trends - Agree - Examples
- The best example of Issue Voting changing voting trends is from the 2019 general elections. Many of those in the traditional Labour ‘Red Wall’ seats voted Conservative due to their stance on Brexit
- Even though the trends indicate that Labour can rely on the younger vote - they still launched a comprehensive social media campaign in 2019 to secure the younger vote
Opinion Polls - Disagree - Point
An obvious device that can be used to make the outcome of elections stable and predictable are opinion polls. They can also have influence on voters which means they can reinforce the predicted outcomes
Opinion Polls - Disagree - Examples
- In 2015, the polls were predicting a dead-heat between the Conservatives and Labour resulting in a second hung Parliament. People feared this would be between Labour and the SNP and the Conservatives began to campaign off this and pulled away in the polls
- In 2019, the opinion polls were correct in predicting a Conservative win
Opinion Polls - Agree - Point
The fact that opinion polls are regularly wrong highlights that outcomes of elections are incredibly unpredictable - the British Polling Commission found that inaccurate sampling and statistical method were to blame
Opinion Polls - Agree - Examples
- The opinion polls did predict that the Conservatives were going to win the 2019 general election, but they massively underestimated by how much
- In 2017 the polls just got it plain wrong - most showed a Conservative lead between 5 and 12%, in reality there were just 2% ahead of Labour
