Evaluate the view that opinion polls bring more advantages than disadvantages. Flashcards
Introduction - Themes
- Influence on Policies
- Influence on Voters
- Accuracy
Introduction - Argument
Opinion polls do have their positives, however, there are far more drawbacks of using opinion polls for elections and referendums
Influence on Policies - Advantages - Point
Opinion polls can give valuable information about people’s attitudes that can helpfully guide politcians. This means they can alter potential policies to satify the electorate
Influence on Policies - Advantages - Examples
- Opinion polls were a strong indicator that the Conservative Party leader, Boris Johnson, was more of a hinderance than a help. Just before his resignation YouGov put his favourability at -52
- After the announcement of her widely unpopular mini-budget, Liz Truss’s favourability rating stood at -70, from You Gov
Influence on Policies - Disadvantages - Point
The use of opinion polls can actually mean the government pulls away from policies it had campaign for and promised in the manifesto - this is damaging for democracy
Influence on Policies - Disadvantages - Examples
- Liz Truss’s mini-budget may have been unpopular, but she was elected by 80,000 Conservative Party members on this promice and the opinion polls meant it was unfulfilled
- Despite Rishi Sunak saying he was going to reinstate the Bill of Rights he has now said that the bill is deprioritised - this could be down to the fact that Amnesty International found only 3% of people were concerned with repealing the Human Rights Act
Influence on Voters - Advantages - Point
Opinion polls give voters the ability to make informed decisions on which party to vote for as they pose a picture of what their vote would mean on a national scale - this helps voters make informed decisions
Influence on Voters - Advantages - Examples
- In 2015, the polls predicted a dead heat between the Conservatives - this led to voters make the decisions that they did not want another coalition and increase support for the Conservatives, who won
- If the polls are predicting a closer election, it can often mean an increase in turnout. In 2017, turnout peaked for recent years at 69%
Influence on Voters - Disadvantages - Point
It can be said that opinion polls are disadvantageous during election season as their predictions can promote tactical voting and low turnout - two things which are damaging for democracy
Influence on Voters - Disadvantages - Examples
- The 2015 election polls indicated a dead-heat and potential SNP-Labour coalition, this led some to vote tacitcally for the Conservatives. The opinion polls, however, were incorrect
- When the opinion polls are predicting landslides, turnout drops - turnout in 2019 dropped to 67.3% and 2001 saw the lowest turnout at 59.4%
Accuracy - Advantages - Point
Opinion polls can be helpful in predicting the outcome of elections and helping the Party to campaign accordingly
Accuracy - Advantages - Examples
- The Polls were correct in predicting a Conservative win in 2019 as well as predicting a remain result in the 2015 Scottish Independence referendum
- The 2017 polls helped the Conservatives and Labour understand their strengths and weaknesses - they illustrated that voters did not like the Conservative’s stance on social care and that people liked Labour’s manifesto
Accuracy - Disadvantages - Point
Opinion polls are incorrect far more than they are correct - even if they do predict the result, they do not always predict it to the correct extent. They can negatively impact people’s voting intentions
Accuracy - Disadvantages - Examples
- In 2019 the polls predicted a Conservative victory but did not predict the landslide they were going to win. For the 2016 EU referendum only 16 out of 168 opinion polls correctly predicted the outcome of the referendum
- The British Polling Council investigated their performance and found that inaccurate sampling and statistical methods were to blame. The polls would overestimate Labour support
