evaluate the view that opinion polls are harmful to democracy

Question 1

evaluate the view that opinion polls are harmful to democracy

Answer 1

intent: no, they’re ok

-sampling leads to false results
-however, it doesn’t, and exit polls are accurate

-undermines democratic processes (leads to tactical voting)
-no it doesn’t (just increases turnout)

-changes party policies in a way that is bc of outside interests (russia)
-however, it more often changes party policies in line w public views

Question 2

example of polls being wrong

Answer 2

yougov poll for 2015 general election showed Labour and the Conservatives neck-and-neck, but the actual results gave the Conservatives a lead of around seven points
pensioners don’t tend to have yougov on their phones

Question 3

yougov bias

Answer 3

-LSE study showed yougov overrepresented labour supporters and underrepresented tories
-hence encouraging tories to vote and making labour voters feel satisfied, so the tories win

Question 4

how many neeks are tactical voters

Answer 4

1/5

Question 5

how brexit polls could suggest polls increase turnout

Answer 5

yougov brexit poll suggests slight remain, but we got slight leave
-> perhaps slight remain poll motivated turnout of leavers (BOOMERANG EFFECT)

Question 6

evidence of outside influence on opinion polls

Answer 6

russia ALLEGED (dont come at me) interference (via fake social media accounts) in 2016 eu referendum opinion polls

Question 7

evidence that it represents constituent interests

Answer 7

uxbridge and south ruislip still voted con to oppose ulez -> changed tory party line to against ulez

Question 8

decreases turnout

Answer 8

IPSOS MORI claimed there would be a 15 percent lead of blair

hence 59.4% turnout 2001