Equity Flashcards
IV analyst - price =
IV act - price + (IV analyst - IV actual)
gordan growth model
v=d1/(r-g)
Ibbotsen-chen ERP
(1+inflation) * (1+r growth in EPS) * (1+ PEG) -1 + yld on index -rf
build-up method
does not use betas to adjust for the exposure of a factor
=bond yield + risk premium
adjusted beta
2/3 * regression beta + 1/3 * 1
strength & weakness of equity models
capm is simply but have low explanatory power
multifactor have more explanatory power but are more complex and costly
build-up are simple and can apply to closely held companies, but they typically use historical values as estimated that may or may not be relevant to the current situation
GGM ERP
1-yr forecast div yld on market index
+ consensus LT earnings growth
-LT gov’t bond yld
IRR intrinsic value =
D1/(R-G)
R=D1/P0 +G
real GDP growth rate
labor productivity growth + labor supply growth rate
labor supply growth rate
population growth rate + increase in labor force participation rate
beta est for thinly traded stocks
Bu = 1/ (1+D/E) * Be Be' = (1+ 'D/E) * Bu
5-factor BIRR Model
rf
+ (sensitivity to confidence risk) * confidence rp)
+ sensitivity to business cycle risk + bc rp)
+(sensitivity to market timing risk * mkt timing rp)
-(sensitivity to time horizon * time horizon rp)
-(sensitivity to inflation risk * inf rp)
build-up approach r=
rf + ERP + Size premium + specific company premium
no beta
WACC
D/A * rd * (1-t) + E/A *re
net debt
gross debt - cash and cash equivalent/st debt
net int. expense
gross interest exp
-int. income on cash and ST debt
inc. ta exp
cash tax due + change in deferred liabilities - change in deferred asset
PP&E
depr + CAPex
net pp&e = ppe-change in (CAPEX-DEPR)
ROIC
NOT AFFECTED BY LEVERAGE
=NOPLAT /INVESTED CAPITAL
=EBI/(Operating asset - operating liablities)
=EBIT(1-t)/invested capital
ROCE
useful to compare company/countries with diff. rates
= op. profit/ capital employeed
=EBIT/(D+E)
int. exp
net debt * tax
Reinvestment yr report debt for same reinvestment policy
total debt/(op cf - reinvestment)
reinvestment= capex - expenditure on intangible
RI
NI-re*bg bv of equity
用于negative fcff, no dividend, high earnings quality, transparent reporting
DDM (MINORITY)
Vo = D1/(1+r1)+p1(1+r1)
ggm growth rate
g=(r-d)/(1+dvd yld)
ggm for perferred stock
v=D/R
actual value of company share PVGO
V=E1/r +PVGO
P/E = (1/R)+(PVGO/E1)
Leading p/e1
JUSTIFIED FORWARD
po/E1
=D1/E/(r-g)
=(1-b)/(r-g)