Episode 7: Finding Things Out

Question 1

What is Regression to the mean?

Answer 1

Is the tendency that after achieving some high result we tend to go back to average, as it all is random. There is nothing superstitious or magic about it.
It is the same of the law of large number

Question 2

Six leads of opinion change

Answer 2

1. What do you really believe anyway?
   What is important to you?
2. How well based is the opinion you already hold?
   Not always we can be based on experiments, sometimes we have only our personal experience.
3. How good is the evidence? On what is it based on experiments or personal experience?
   What most people do when faced with surprising evidence, like the large small class, is to disregard it or look for flaws in it. You should ask yourself: is that flaw so terrible that you can legitimately disregard this new piece of evidence that you’ve been given?
4. Does the current evidence really contradict what you already believe?
   Is there a way of re-framing the evidence rather than just rejecting it outright?
5. If the current evidence is insufficient to make you change your mind, what evidence would be sufficient?
   If you can’t find anything that would change your mind, it is time to be cautious.
6. Is it worth finding out about, or is just the case of “why not”?
   We need a caveat on this lead: if the cost is low and the payoff is high, why not?

Question 3

multiple independent error factor

Answer 3

there are many things that can go wrong or good in a day and interfere with your performance. For example before taking a test you find out that your pet just died.