Epidemiology Flashcards
Prevalence
Fraction (proportion) of a group of people that have/manifest a clinical condition at a given point in time
Incidence
The fraction of a group initially free of disease that develops it over a given period of time
Retrospective
Case-control studies are _____
Prospective
Cohort studies are ______
Case-control studies
Subjects are selected on the basis of whether they do or do not have a particular disease or outcome of interests. Compared for their exposure or risk factor history
Pros of case-control study
- Long latency periods
- Inexpensive
- Optimal for evaluation of rare diseases or rare outcome
- Can examine multiple risk factors for a single disease or outcome
Cons of case-control study
Particularly prone to biases and confounding (statisical association but not true cause and effect)
Inefficient for the evaluation of rare EXPOSURES
Selection bias
Present when individuals have different probabilities of being included in the study sample according to relevant study characteristics; most often the exposure and outcome of interest
Information bias
Results from a systematic tendency for individuals selected for inclusion in the study to be erroneously place in different exposure/outcome categories, thus leading to misclassification
(a/c)/ (b/d) (outcome and exposure/outcome no exposure)/(no outcome and exposure/no outcome and no exposure)
Odds ratio, shows strength of association
Odds ratio
Means that the ratio of exposure for people with disease to people without is x. Equals relative risk if a rare outcome
Case control questions
- Was there a pre-specified hypothesis defining a relationship between an exposure and an outcome?
- Were the exposure and health outcome clearly and operationally defined?
- Was the control group appropriate? (from base population)
- Was the measurement of exposure both in cases and controls accurate and unbiased?
- Was the measurement of outcome both in casea and controls accurate and unbiased?
- Were the important confounding variables accounted for and controlled for in the statistical analysis?
Cohort study
Cohort is defined, exposure status is determined, follow prospectively over time, identify development of disease/outcome, compare incidence of disease in two groups
identify cohort in cohort study
- Select defined population before exposures are identified
or 2. Create a study populatoin by selecting participants based on exposure
all participants (exposed and un) must be at risk for developing the outcome of interest
Incidence
A/ (A +B) or (outcome and exposed)/ all exposed
C/ (C +D) or (outcome and unexposed)/all unexposed
Relative risk
Ratio of risk (incidence) of disease in exposed persons to risk in unexposed persons
measure of association
(A/ (A +B)) / (C/(C+D))
Relative risk equation
AR = (Incidence Ex - Incidence UnEx)/ Incidence Ex
Attributable risk equation
Advantages of cohort studies
- Can determine temporal sequence, identify natural history of disease
- assessing multiple outcomes after a single exposure
- identify incidence and RR
- Reduces or eliminates recall bias
Disadvantages of cohort studies
- Can be inefficient and costly, esp for rare diseases or with long history
- Attrition/loss to follow up (bias to exposed vs unexposed)
- Selection bias
Equipoise, efficacy, effectiveness
Three E’s of RCT
Randomized Controlled Trials
Gold Standard, removes selection bias and benefit seen is less likely to be due to confounding or other biases. More likely a true association
Equipoise
Term to describe state of equilibrium in which two sides are balanced. Only ethical to do a RCT is you don’t know which treatment is better
Phase 1
Initial human trials, small sample (1-100), healthy volunteers with no comparison group
Evaluate safety (adverse effects, max dose, treatment mechanism)
Primary goal of Phase 1 trial
Phase 2
Expanded human trials, small sample (100s), patients with disease, comparator group
Expanded safety, efficacy, optimal dosing and duration
Goals of Phase 2 trials
Phase 3
Randomized Controlled Trial, large sample (100-1000s) with disease and comparator group. Expensive and costly
Determine efficacy and additional info on safety (adverse effects)
Primary goal of Phase 3 trial
Phase 4
After FDA approval, post-market surveillance. Ongoing monitoring in real world setting. Identify additional adverse effects
Efficacy
The benefit of the intervention under IDEAL conditions
Effectiveness
The benefit of the intervention in the REAL WORLD setting
RCT with placebo comparison, highly select population (strict in/exclusion), intervention is highly standardized
Testing for efficacy
Comparison to “current standard”, generalizable population, few exclusions, intervention implementation flexible
Testing for effectiveness
Randomization
Eliminates selection bias- removes potential for bias in the allocation of subjects to the treatment groups. On average, makes groups comparable with respect to known and unknown confounders
Benefits of randomization are lost
Problem with study participants dropping out, switching treatment groups, or failing to comply with assigned treatment
Table 1
In most research publications, lists baseline characteristics by treatment group
RRR (relative risk reduction)
Gives percent that intervention is less likely to develop outcome. Can over-inflate benefits or risks, esp for rare outcomes
(Risk for control- risk for treatment)/risk for control
RRR equation
Risk of outcome in control - risk of outcome in treat group
Absolute risk reduction (ARR) equation. Says percent fewer who develop outcome
1/ARR
Number needed to treat (NNT) equation
Intention-to-treat
Analyze participants who switched treatment groups, didn’t comply, or dropped out-analyze according to original group assignment. Simulates “real world”
“How does treatment work in poeple for whom it was targeted”
Per-protocol analysis
Analyze participants who switched treatment groups, didn’t comply, or dropped out-analyze depending on what they followed
“How does the treatment work in people who actually received the treatment”
Advantages of RCT
Eliminates selection bias. Definitive trial if well done
Disadvantages of RCT
High resource- cost, time, effort
Requires equipoise and may not be ethical
Randomized Cluster Trial
Experiments in which clusters of participants, rather than single individuals are randomly allocated to intervention groups. When intervention can’t be applied to an individual or there is contamination across individuals
Meta-analyses
Combines results of RCTs from small studies- essentially creating ONE larger study
RR not equal to 1 (cohort) or OR not equal to 1 (case control)
Study factor is associated with the study outcome when
Statistical ways to adjust for confounding but not to control for bias
difference between confounders and bias
Criteria for confounding
Must differ by levels of exposure variable, must be associated with study outcome
Adjust for confounding during study design
Restrict (limit ages), match (force balance, match confounding variable), randomly allocate persons to study groups
Adjust for confounding after data are collected
Stratify (compare old with old, young w young, etc), adjust (combine stratified results into 1 estimate)
RR of groups is same, but not the same as overall RR
After stratifying on levels of confounders, confounding exists if ____
Intermediate variable
Variable to be adjusted lies between study factor and outcome, NOT a confounding variable and doesn’t need to be controlled
Effect modification
RR’s differ importantly across levels of stratification variable. Effect not homogeneous, degree of association depends on level of stratification variable (RR are different between groups)
Specificity
Ability of a test to correctly identify persons without disease. proportion of persons without disease who have a negative test. only identify disease
TN/ (TN + FP)
Specificity equation
TP/ (TP + FN)
Sensitivity equation
Sensitivity
Ability to identify persons with disease, identify all disease. Proportion of persons with disease with positive test
TP/ (TP + FP)
PPV
TN / (TN+ FN)
NPV
Predictive values
Vary according to population tested
Screening test
Identifies people at low risk for disease. Maximizes sensitivity. When pts have no symptoms
Diagnostic test
Determine whom among those at risk actually has disease. Maximizes specificity, few false positives. Done when pt has symptoms
Bayes’ Theorem
Interpretation of new information depends on what you already know about the patient
Overuse
Medical care in which harms outweighs benefits, benefits are negligible, or fully informed patients would forego medical care
Overdiagnosis
Diagnosis of abnormalities not related to disease (false positive), identify disease that will never cause illness
Overtreatment
Overdiagnosed disease, wrong practice, unwanted care
Quasi-experimental study
Study that aims to evaluate interventions but does not utilize a randomized control group, frequently utilized in quality improvement
Selection bias, historical bias, regression, maturational effects
Threats to internal validity in QE studies