Epi - Comp Exam Flashcards
What is Descriptive Epidemiology?
Distribution of Disease
Who/When/Where
- Frequencies of disease occurrences.
- Counts and their relation to size of population.
- Patterns of disease occurances:
- Encompasses person place and time.
What is Analytic Epidemiology?
Determinants of Disease
Associations vs. Causes (Causation)
Why/How
- Factors of susceptibility/exposure/risk
- Etiology/causes of disease
- Mode(s) of transmission
- Social/environmental/biologic elements that determine the ocurrence/presence of disease.
What are the 6 core functions of epidemiology?
- Public health surveillance
- Field investigation
- Analytic studies
- Evaluation
- Linkages
- Policy development
What is an epidemic?
Occurance of disease clearly in excess of normal expectancy with community/period clearly defined.
What is an outbreak?
An epidemic limited to a localized increase in the occurance of disease. Sometimes interchanged with ‘cluster.’
What is an endemic?
The constant presence of a disease within a given area or population in excess of normal levels in other areas.
What is an emergency of international concern?
An epidemic that alerts the world to the need for high vigilance (pre-pandemic labeling).
What is a pandemic?
An epidemic spread world-wide (global health impact), could be multi-national or multi-continent.
What is Incidence Density?
Incidence Rate when summed over multiple time periods.
What is Point Prevalence?
Prevalence at a given point in time.
What is Period Prevalence?
Prevalence over a given period of time.
What is a Crude Morbidity Rate?
of Persons with Disease / # of Persons in Population
What is a Crude Mortality Rate?
of Deaths (all causes) / # of Persons in Population
What is a Cause-Specific Morbidity Rate?
of Persons with cause-specific disease / # of Persons in Population
What is a Cause-Specific Mortality Rate?
of Cause-Specific Deaths / # of Persons in Population
What is a Case-Fatality Rate?
of Cause-Specific Deaths / # of Cases of Disease
What is a Cause-Specific Survival Rate?
of Cause-Specific Cases Alive / # of Cases of Disease
What is a Proportional Mortality Rate (PMR)?
of Cause-Specific Deaths / total # of Deaths in Population
What is a Live Birth-Rate?
of Live Births / 1000 Population
What is a Fertility Rate
of Live Births / 1000 women of childbearing age (15-44)
What is a Neonatal Mortality Rate?
of deaths in those <28 days of age / 1000 live births
What is a Postnatal Mortality Rate?
of deaths in those between 28 days and 1 year of age / 1000 live births
What is an Infant Mortality Rate?
of deaths in those < 1 year of age / 1000 live births
What is a Maternal Mortality Ratio?
of female deaths related to pregnancy / 100,000 live births
What is Infectivity?
Infectivity is the ability to invade a patient (host) .
infected / # susceptable (at risk)
What is Pathogenicity?
Pathogenicity is the ability to cause clinical disease.
with disease / # infected
What is Virulence?
Virulence is the ability to cause death.
of deaths / # with infectious disease
What is Risk?
Risk
- A proportion that calculates the probability of outcome.
- Example:
- Risk of Outcome in the ‘Exposed’ is:
- “exposed with disease” / “all exposed”
- Risk of Outcome in the “Non-exposed” is:
- “non-exposed with disease” / “all non-exposed”
- Risk of Outcome in the ‘Exposed’ is:
What is Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR)?
Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR), aka Attributable Risk, is the risk difference of the outcome attributable to exposure difference between groups.
Example:
If Risk is 40.9% in the treatment group and 53.6% in non-treatment group then:
ARR = |40.9% - 53.6%| = 12.7%
What is Relative Risk Reduction?
The Relative Risk Reduction is the ARR compared with the Risk of the exposed.
Example:
If Risk is 40.9% in the treatment group and 53.6% in non-treatment group then:
ARR = |40.9% - 53.6%| = 12.7%
RRR = 12.7% / 53.6% = 23.7%
What is the Number Needed to Treat (NNT) / Number Needed to Harm (NNH)?
The NNT is the number of patients needed to be treated to receive the stated benefit/harm. NNT = 1 / ARR (in decimal format) with answer always being rounded to nearest whole number.
Example:
If you have a certain medication that has shown an absolute risk reduction of 12.7% then:
NNT = 1 / 0.127 = 8 patients.
How are Ratios interpreted?
All ratios (RR, OR, HR) compare 2 groups and describe the liklihood of event/outcome in 1 group compared to another.
Ratio values:
- If Ratio is 1.0 then the event/outcome is equally likely for both groups.
- If Ratio is >1.0 then the event/outcome is more likely to occur in comparison group.
- If Ratio is <1.0 then the event/outcome is less likely to occur in comparison group.
How are Ratios reported?
- =1.0 - no difference
- >1.0 - Increased Ratio (RR/OR/HR)
- 1.01 - 1.99 = use decimal value (converted to %)
- RR = 1.53, then comparator group is at a 53% increased risk.
- >1.99 = use phrase “x” times greater for interpretation
- OR = 6.18, then comparator group has 6.18 times greater odds
- 1.01 - 1.99 = use decimal value (converted to %)
- <1.0 - Decreased Ratio (RR/OR/HR)
- 0.0001 - 0.99 = subtract from 1.0, then convert to %
- HR = 0.73, then comparator group has a 27% decreased probability of the hazard outcome.
- 0.0001 - 0.99 = subtract from 1.0, then convert to %
How are Confidence Intervals for Ratios interpreted?
If both values of the CI for a Ratio is on the same side of 1.0, it is always statistically significant.
How is the Odds Ratio interpretted?
Odds Ratio is interpretted just like any ratio.
Example: OR = 10.09
_____ exposed are 10 x more likely to _____ than _____ not exposed.
What are the 3 required elements in interpretting Odds Ratios?
3 Required Elements:
- The comparison group
- Percentage/times more/less likely
- Compared to reference group.
If there is a lack of apparent exchangeability/comparability, what type of bias can that cause?
Confounding
Before declaring a real or true association, what 3 aspects do epidemiologists evaluate and what kind of validity are they evaluating?
Internal Validity
- 3 aspects of internal validity:
- Confounding or Effect Modificaiton
- Bias
- Statistical significance.
How do you test for confounding?
Testing for Confounding
- Calculate CRUDE (unadjusted) measure of association (OR/RR) between exposure and outcome.
- Calculate outcome measure of association (OR/RR) between exposure and outcome for each individual strata (levels, groupings, or categories) of the potential confounder.
- Create a weighted-average of all strata (if near-equal), commonly called adjusted association.
- Authors must indicate what variables are utilized in ‘adjusting’ the measure of association.
- Create a weighted-average of all strata (if near-equal), commonly called adjusted association.
- Compare the Crude vs. Adjusted measures of association between exposure and outcome.
- If they vary by 15% or more, then confounding is present.
What are the two main impacts of confounding?
Impact of Confounding
- Magnitude (strength) of association
- If association is more extreme (ratio goes up), less extreme (ratio goes down) compared to unadjusted association.
- Direction of association
- Can produce an association in an opposite direction, towards or away from a null (equal) association.
What are ways of controlling confounding?
Controlling Confounding
- Study design phase:
- Randomization
- Restriction
- Matching
- Analysis of data stage:
- Stratification (w/ weighting)
- Multivariate statistical analysis (regression analyses)
How does randomization help control for confounding and what are its strengths and weaknesses?
Controlling for Confounding - Randomization
- Randomization hopefully allocates an equal number of subjects with the known (and unassessed) confounders into each intervention group.
- Strength:
- With sufficent sample size (N), randomization will likely be successful in making groups equal.
- Stratified version more precisely assures equal-ness.
- Weakness:
- Sample size (N) may not be large enough to control for all unknown or unassessed confounders.
- Process doesn’t guarantee successful, equal allocation between all intervention groups for all known and unknown confounders.
- Practical only for Interventional studies.
How does restriction help control confounding and what is its strengths and weaknesses?
Controlling for Confounding - Restriction
- Study participation is restricted to only subjects who do not fall within pre-specified category(ies) of the confounder.
- Strength:
- Straight forward, convenient and inexpensive.
- Does not negatively impact internal validity.
- Weakness:
- Sufficiently narrow restriction criteria may negatively impact ability to enroll subjects (reduced sample size (N))
- If restriction criteria is not sufficiently narrow it will allow the introduction of residential (other) confounding effects.
- Eliminates researchers ability to evaluate varying levels of the factor being excluded.
- Can negatively impact external validity (generalizability).
How does matching help control for confounding and what is its strengths and weaknesses?
Controlling for Confounding - Matching
- Study subjects selected in matched-pairs related to the confounding variable, to equally distribute confounder among each study group.
- Strength:
- Intuitive, some feel it gives greater analytic efficiency.
- Weakness:
- Difficult to accomplish, can be time consuming, and potentially expensive.
- Doesn’t control for any confounders other than those matched.
- Over-matching possible; this will mask (blunt) findings.
How does stratification help control for confounding and what are its strengths and weaknesses?
Controlling for Confounding - Stratification
- Descriptive and statistical analysis of data evaluating association between exposure and outcome within the various strata (categories/levels) within the confounding variable(s).
- Strength:
- Intuitive (to some), straight-forward and enhances understanding of data.
- Weakness:
- Impractical for simultaneous control of multiple confounders, especially those with multiple strata (categories) within each variable being controlled.
How does multi-variate analysis help control for confounding and what are its strengths and weaknesses?
Controlling for Confounding - Multi-Variate Analysis
- Statistical analysis of data by mathematically factoring out the effects of the confounding variable(s).
- Strength:
- Can simultaneously control for multiple confounding variables.
- In statistical regressions, ORs can be obtained and interpreted.
- Weakness:
- Process requires individuals (researchers/readers) to clearly understand (interpret) the data (results).
- Can be time consuming for researcher/biostatistician.
- Examples:
- Regressions (linear and logistic versions)
- Cox Proportional Hazards
What is effect modification?
Effect Modification
- A 3rd variable, that when present, modifies the magnitude of effect of a true association by varying it within different strata of the 3rd variable.
- If an interaction is present, the researcher must report the measures of association for each strata individually.
- Unlike confounding, an effect modifying variable should be described and reported at each level of the variable, rather than controlled, or adjusted, for.
How do you test for effect modification?
Testing for Effect Modification
- Calculate crude measure of association between exposure and outcome (OR/RR)
- Calculate strata-specific measures of association between exposure and outcome (OR/RR) for each strata of 3rd variable.
- Compare each of the strata-specific measures of associations between each other [while referencing the adjusted measure of association].
- The measure of association between the lowest and highest strata of the effect-modifying variable will be 15% or more different if effect modification is present.
What 3 aspects of a study must a researcher evaluate before declaring a real, true association?
- Confounding or effect modification
- Bias
- Statistical significance
What is bias?
Bias - Systematic (non-randon) error in study design or conduct leading to erroneous results.
What does bias distort?
Bias distorts the relationship (association) between exposure and outcome.
What can be done to “fix” bias once it has already occured?
Nothing
What can minimize bias and its impact?
Prospective (pre-study) consideration and adjustment can minimize bias and its impact.
What 3 elements can bias impact?
Bias can impact:
- Source/type
- Magnitude/strength
- Direction
Considering bias impact on “Source/Type,” what are the 2 main categories of bias.
2 Main Categories of Bias
- Selection-related
- Measurement-related
What is selection-related bias?
Selection-Related Bias
- Any aspect in the way the researcher selects or acquires study subjects which creates a systematic difference between groups.
- Commonly seen when comparative groups not coming from the same population/group or not being representative of the full population or even differentially-selected (processes)
DON’T DO ANYTHING THAT IS DIFFERENT, OR CREATES A DIFFERENCE, BETWEEN GROUPS!!!
SAME-SAME-SAME
What is measurement-related bias?
Measurement-Related Bias
- Any aspect in the way the researcher collects information, or measures/observes subjects which creates a systematic difference between groups.
- Errors in measurement can also cause a resultant error in patient classification (misclassification)
DON’T DO ANYTHING THAT IS DIFFERENT, OR CREATES A DIFFERENCE, BETWEEN GROUPS!!!
SAME-SAME-SAME
What are the 2 types of selection bias?
Selection Bias
- Healthy-Worker Bias
- Self-Selection/Participant (Responder) Bias
Under measurement bias, what are the 5 subject-related types of bias?
Measurement Bias - Subject-Related
- Recall bias
- Hawthorne Effect
- Contamination bias
- Compliance/Adherence bias
- Lost to follow-up bias
What is recall bias?
Recall Bias
- A differential level of accuracy/detail in provided information between study groups.
- Exposed or diseased subjects may have a greater sensitivity for recalling their history (better memory; easier to remember if more severe) or amplify (exaggerate) their responses.
What is the Hawthorne Effect?
Hawthorne Effect
- Individuals alter/modify their behavior because they are part of a study and know they are under observation.
What is misclassification bias?
Misclassification Bias - error in classifying the disease, exposure status, or both.
What are the two types of misclassification bias?
Misclassification - 2 Types
- Non-differential
- Differential
What is non-differential misclassification bias?
Non-Differential Misclassification
- Error is distributed equally in both groups.
- Misclassification of exposure or disease that is unrelated to the other (disease or exposure), depending on study design.
- Effect: For dichotomous (2 cat.) variables, bias can move the measure of association (RR/OR) towards 1.0; it attenuates your effect estimates of association.
What is differential misclassification bias?
Differential Misclassification
- Error in one group is different than other.
- Misclassification of exposure or disease is RELATED to the other (disease or exposure), depending on study design.
- Effect: Bias can move the measure of association (RR/OR) in either direction in relation to 1.0; it can inflate (away from 1.0) or attenuate (towards 1.0) your effect estimates of association.
What methods can be used to control for bias?
Controlling for Bias
- Select the most precise, acurate, & medically-appropriate measures of assessment and evaluation/observation.
- Blinding/masking
- Use multiple sources to gather all information
- Randomly allocate observers/interviewers for data collection (and train them!; use technology!)
- Build as many methods necessary to minimize loss to follow-up.
- Lost-to-followup bias (differential attrition bias)
What are the 3 types of associations (relationships).
Associations (Relationships) - Types
- Artifactual (false) associations.
- Non-causal associations.
- Causal associations.
What can cause artifactual associations?
Artifactual Associations
- Can arise from Bias and/or Confounding.
How can non-causal associations occur?
Non-Causal Associations
- Can occur in 2 different ways:
- The disease may cause the exposure (rather than the exposure causing the disease)
- The disease and the exposure are both associated with a third factor (confounding).
What are the 3 types of causal relationships?
Causal Relationships - 3 Types
- Sufficient Cause
- Necessary Cause
- Component Cause
What are Hill’s Guidelines?
Hill’s Guidelines
- Inductively-oriented criteria for epi causal inference process.
- Hill disagreed that “hard-fast” rules of evidence could be generated by which to judge likelihood of causation.
- Criteria:
- Strength
- Consistency
- Temporality
- Biologic Gradient
- Plausibility
- The higher the number of criteria met, when evaluating an ‘association,’ the more likely it may be causal.
In Hill’s guidelines, what does strength refer to?
Strength
- Strength refers to the size of the measure of association (RR/OR/HR)
- The greater the association the more convincing it is that the association might actually be causal.
- “A strong association is neither necessary nor sufficient for causality and weakness of an association is neither necessary nor sufficient for absence of casuality.”
In Hill’s guidelines, what does consistency refer to?
Consistency
- The repeated observations of an association in different populations under different circumstances in different studies (not just once).
- Consistency may still obscure the truth.
In Hill’s guidelines, what does temporality refer to?
Temporality
- Reflects that the cause precede the effect/outcome in time.
- Time-order also describable:
- Proximate cause (short-term interval)
- Distant cause (long-term interval)
In Hill’s guidelines, what does biologic gradient refer to?
Biologic Gradient
- Presence of a gradient of risk (dose-response) associated with the degree of exposure.
In Hill’s guidelines, what does plausibility refer to?
Plausibility
- Presence of a biological feasibility to the association, which can be understood and explained (biologically, physiologically/medically)
- Is the event/exposure biologically-plausible, if really true?
- At issue: Plausibility decision on criterion-based from existing/known beliefs, which may be flawed or incomplete.
Determining incubation periods.
What is incidence and how is it calculated?
Incidence (a.k.a. Risk or Attack Rate) is new cases of disease divided by the “at risk” or base population. (Proportion)
Useful for non-dynamic populations.