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EOS > EOS 365 > Flashcards

EOS 365 Flashcards

1
Q

where did the atmosphere come from

A

volcanic outgassing ~4.6bya

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2
Q

surface temperature on earth 4.6bya

A

80-100ºC

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3
Q

atmospheric composition 4.6bya

A

H2O 85%
CO2 10%
N2, S, SO2, H2S 5%

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4
Q

volcanism slowed down

A

3.8bya

less volcanism– lower CO2— cooling— condensation– precipitation

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5
Q

oxygenic photosynthesis

A

3.5-2.3bya
H2O + CO2 + light — {CH2O} + O2
increased atmos. O2 content
decreased atmos. CO2 content

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6
Q

life evolved

A

3.5bya

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7
Q

age of mammals

A

Cenozoic, 66mya-present

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8
Q

age of ancient life

A

Paleozoic, 570-286mya

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9
Q

age of reptiles

A

Mesozoic, 245-144mya

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10
Q

how plate tectonics evolve atmosphere

A

new land mass– lots of weathering– CO2 sink– sediment reformation

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11
Q

parts of the atmosphere by altitude

A

Homosphere, heterosphere

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12
Q

Homosphere

A

altitude <80km

same relative proportion of gases everywhere

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13
Q

Heterosphere

A

altitude >80km stratified

concentration of heavier gases decreases more rapidly with height than concentration of lighter gases

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14
Q

proportions of gases in atmosphere (% volume)

A 
N2 78%
O2 21%
Ar 1%
CO2 0.04%
trace gases: Ne, He, CH4, Kr, NO, H2, O3
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15
Q

variability of water vapour in atmosphere

A

polar regions «1% by volume

tropical regions up to 4%

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16
Q

concentrations of gases are measured in

A

‘dry atmosphere’

because water vapour is very variable around the world

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17
Q

peak UV absorption

A

stratopause

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18
Q

where weather occurs in the atmosphere

A

troposphere

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19
Q

divisions of the atmosphere

A

troposphere 0-10km
stratosphere 10-50km
mesosphere 50-85km
thermosphere

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20
Q

temperature profile of atmosphere

A

troposphere- declining
stratosphere- inclining
mesosphere- declining
thermosphere- increasing

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21
Q

Ozone

A

non uniform districution
concentrated 10-50km
absorbs harmful UV
depleted by CFCs- form polar stratospheric clouds

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22
Q

one dobson unit (DU)

A

27million molecules per cm^2

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23
Q

limit of ozone hole in southern hemisphere

A

220DU

drops to ~120DU in spring

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24
Q

aerosols

A

tiny liquid or solid particles of various compositions that are suspended in the atmosphere
reflect incoming solar radiation

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25
Q

aerosols important in

A

cloud formation- condensation nuclei- lead to cooling

colorful sunrises/sunsets

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26
Q

natural forms of aerosols

A

fires, loess, salt from breaking waves, pollen

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27
Q

anthropogenic aerosols

A

dust from agriculture tilling, construction, roads, ash from fires, volcanoes

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28
Q

sulphur oxides (SOx)

A

burning of sulfur based fossil fuels (mainly coal)- power generation, heating, steelmaking

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29
Q

nitrogen oxides (NOx)

A

high T combustion for power, transportation, heating
denitrification by soil bacteria
lightening, forest fires

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30
Q

volatile organic compounds (VOCs)

A

photochemically reactive hydrocarbons: xylene, toluene, isoprene, methyl butenol, methane, ethane, acetone
power generation, residential wood burning, gas vehicles, forest fires

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31
Q

Canadian human NOx sources

A

transportation 53%
oil/gas 19%
electric power 10%

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32
Q

Canadian human SOx sources

A

oil/gas 29%
mining/smelting 33%
electric power generation 25%

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33
Q

Canadian human VOC sources

A

transportation 31%
oil/gas 26%
general solvent use 12%

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34
Q

Canadian human aerosol sources

A

mining 17%
wood 10%
residential fuel/wood combustion 15%
cement/concrete 15%

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35
Q

Carbon monoxide (CO)

A

colourless, odourless, toxic gas, low T combustion of carbon fuels
aluminum, steel, pulp, paper, wood-burning, transportation, incineration

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36
Q

Canadian human sources of CO

A

transportation 76%

fuel wood combustion 7%

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37
Q

low temperature combustion

A

imperfect

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38
Q

greenhouse gases

A

H2O, CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, CFCs, PFCs, HFCs, HCFCs, SF6

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39
Q

significance of greenhouse gas

A

not determined solely by relative abundance

small change in CH4 more important than same change in CO2

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40
Q

O3 in troposphere

A

caused by pollution, short lived, toxic

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41
Q

HCFCs

A

replaced CFCs, dont harm O3 but do cause warming

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42
Q

weather

A

state of the atmosphere at a particular time and place

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43
Q

climate

A

the statistics of weather, likelihood of occurrence of a particular weather event

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44
Q

can’t attribute a single event to climate change

A

climate is a statistic

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45
Q

increase in mean of climate

A

graph shifts right

more hot weather, more record hot weather, less cold weather

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46
Q

increase in variance of climate

A

graph ‘flattens’ out-platykurtic
more hot/cold weather
more record hot/cold weather

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47
Q

increase in mean and variance of climate

A 
graph shifts right and flattens
much more hot weather
more record hot weather
not a lot of change in cold weather
little-no record cold weather
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48
Q

graphs/statistics of climate, what we know

A

we know that the mean is shifting, changes in variance are harder to predict

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49
Q

vulnerability

A

degree to which a system is susceptible to and unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes

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50
Q

resiliency

A

the ability of social/ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining same basic structure/functioning, capacity for self-organization and capacity to adapt to stress/change

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51
Q

adaptation

A

initiative/measures to reduce vulnerability of natural/human systems against climate change effects

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52
Q

adaptive capacity

A

whole of capabilities, resources, and institutions of a country/region to implement effective adaptation measures

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53
Q

mitigation

A

implementation of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emission and enhance sinks

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54
Q

mitigative capacity

A

country ability to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission or enhance natural sinks

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55
Q

what is earths primary source of energy

A

the sun- drives atmosphere and ocean

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56
Q

water vapour from satellite

A

bright white at equator- tropics, convection

mid latitude cyclones

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57
Q

wavelength

A

crest to crest

trough to trough

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58
Q

electromagnetic spectrum

A 
gamma <0.001µm
X-ray  0.001-.5µm
UV ~.5µm
visible .4-.7µm
infrared ~1000µm
microwaves ~1m
radio 1-1000m
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59
Q

shortwave radiation

A

<1µm, gamma, X-rays, UV, visible

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60
Q

mostly blocked by atmosphere

A

UV, x-rays

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61
Q

ALL blocked by atmosphere

A

x-ray, gamma

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62
Q

longwave radiation

A

IR, microwaves, radio

>~1µm

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63
Q

speed of light

A

c = λ . v

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64
Q

visible light

A 
violet 400nm
blue
green 500nm
yellow
orange 600nm
red 700nm
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65
Q

law of conservation

A

energy can neither be created nor destroyed, can only be converted from one form to another

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66
Q

wave frequency

A

of crests/troughs that pass a given point in a period of time (Hz, 1/s)

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67
Q

c =

A

3.00 x 10^8 m/s

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68
Q

Radiation laws

A
  1. all known bodies emit em radiation
  2. Weinn’s displacement law
  3. Stefan-Boltzmann law
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69
Q

All known bodies emit electromagnetic radiation

A

at a given temperature black bodies absorb all radiation incident on it, at every λ, and emits all radiation at every λ maximally (theoretical)
Earth, sun are ~black bodies

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70
Q

Weinn’s displacement law

A

the λ of the most intense radiation is inversely proportional to the T of the object
increased T = decreased λ
max radiation λ- max λ emitted - more energetic

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71
Q

Weinns displacement law equation

A

λmax = Co / T
Co = 2.897x10^-3 km
λmax in µm (10^-6m)

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72
Q

Earth emits

A

infrared/longwave/terrestrial radiation

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73
Q

temperature of the sun

A

~6000ºC

hotter = smaller λ = higher v

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74
Q

the suns em spectrum

A

UV 7%
Visible light 44%
near IR 37%
far IR 11%

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75
Q

earth temperature

A

~15ºC
cool = long λ = low v
much less em radiation given off by earth than by sun

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76
Q

Stefan-Boltzmann law for blackbodies

A

The total energy radiated by a black body is proportional to the 4th power of its absolute temperature

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77
Q

Stefan-Boltzmann equation

A 
E = sigma . T^4
sigma = 5.67x10^-8 W/m^2.K^4
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78
Q

global radiative equilibrium

A

total energy absorbed (insolation) = total energy emitted (outgoing IR)

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79
Q

earth radiative equilibrium

A

earth is not in radiative equilibrium

greenhouse gases trapping outgoing IR from leaving

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80
Q

solar altitude

A

angle of sun above the horizon

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81
Q

insolation

A

visible 45%
near IR 46%
UV 9%
weaker at poles- path is longer, has to travel through more atmos.- angle of inclination spreads incoming rays over larger area (weaker)

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82
Q

90º angle of inclination

A

1 unit incoming = 1 unit at surface

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83
Q

45º solar altitude

A

1/sin(45º) = 1.4

1 unit incoming is spread over 1.4 units at surface

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84
Q

30º solar altitude

A

1/sin(30º) = 2

1 unit incoming is spread over 2 units at surface

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85
Q

earth axial tilt

A

23.5º

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86
Q

day and night

A

rotation of earth on its axis ~1 every 24 hours

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87
Q

annual cycles

A

earth orbits the sun (in an ellipse) ~1 every 365.25 days

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88
Q

seasons result from

A

changing solar altitude

change in length of daylight

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89
Q

equinox

A

sun vertical at equator
M 21-22 Vernal (spring)
S 22-23 Autumnal
day and night 12hrs, everywhere

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90
Q

Solstice

A

sun vertical at 23.5º N/S
J 21-22 NH tilted towards sun
D 21-22 SH titled towards sun

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91
Q

daily path of the sun in NH mid latitudes

A

higher in sky in June, less to the south
lower in sky- more to the south, in December
never to the north

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92
Q

longest day of year in NH

A

Summer solstice
June 21
suns vertical rays at Tropic of Cancer

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93
Q

shortest day of year in NH

A

winter solstice
Dec. 21
suns vertical rays at Tropic of Capricorn

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94
Q

Milankovic

A

1930- Mathematical Climatology and the Astronomical Theory of Climatic Changes
eccentricity
obliquity
precession

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95
Q

Eccentricity

A

100,000yrs

changes in ellipsoid orbit

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96
Q

Obliquity

A

axial tilt, 41,100 years
21.5-24.5º
bigger tilt = intensified seasons

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97
Q

axial precession

A

wobble, 23,000 and 19,000 yrs

where N/S axis points

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98
Q

aphelion

A

farthest from sun

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99
Q

perihelion

A

closest to sun

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100
Q

why are poles cold in the summer if they get more insolation than equator

A

majority is reflected away by snow/ice - albedo

insolation more spread out

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101
Q

UVic earth system climate model parts

A 
energy/moisture atmospheric model
vegetation model
land surface scheme
ocean general circulation model
sea ice model
inorganic and organic carbon cycles
marine sediment model
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102
Q

if we turn off emissions at 2013

A

if CO2 levels increased to 4.5º of warming– permafrost defrosts, strong + feedback, warming continues

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103
Q

ineffective science

A

science that is not effectively communicated

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104
Q

university research is funded

A

mostly by public funds

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105
Q

decision making

A

need evidence-based decision making

NOT decision-based evidence making

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106
Q

children act like scientists

A

they ask questions

seek to answer questions

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107
Q

communicating science

A 
working with schools
hosting school field trips
public lectures
writing for non-science audiences
the media
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108
Q

what media are looking for in a story

A 
Drama
Certainty
Brevity
Personal
immediacy
Emotional/hot topic
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109
Q

drama

A

good narrative, conflict, david vs. goliath

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110
Q

certainty

A

clear, avoid innuendo, get facts straight

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111
Q

brevity

A

concise, pithy quotes, short, catchy

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112
Q

personal

A

provides individual perspective

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113
Q

immediacy

A

must be current, reader can form connection, current issues

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114
Q

emotional/hot topics

A

storms, cure for cancer, ebola

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115
Q

most effective tool in science communication

A

use of analogy or metaphor

reporters/general public don’t have scientific knowledge

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116
Q

“ingredients of the storm”

A

warm temperature, sea level rise

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117
Q

why it takes a long time for climate to equilibrate to a given level of radiative forcing

A

analogy with a pot of water on a stove

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118
Q

annual mean projections of future climate

A

2090-2099
prior to industrialization 1.8ºC globally warmer
track we are on now 4ºC globally warmer

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119
Q

do we owe the future anything?

A

intergenerational equity

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120
Q

Canadian voter turnout

A

overal ~60%
65-74 ~70-80%
18-24 ~40%

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121
Q

barriers to change

A

political, throne speech hipocritical

Oregon, Cali, Wash., refuse to ship oil, so BC decides to and then tries to push that LNG will replace coal in china?

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122
Q

problems with Humble Energy add

A

glacier problems were unknown at the time

America losing space race, cold war, company trying to push power, playing on American Power- defeat Soviets

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123
Q

Angus Reid Poll 2007

A

convinced global warming is occurring: canada 77%, BC 80%, Alberta 69%, Quebec 83%
may be occurring: canada 21%, BC 19%, Alberta 28%
not happening: canada 2%, BC 2%, Alberta 4%

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124
Q

Junk science

A

have an answer and build the case for it- biased evidence

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125
Q

US and Canadian poll 2008-2012

A

solid evidence of global warming- US 58%, Can. 80%

no evidence- US 26%, Can. 14%

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126
Q

Climate gate

A

fall/winter 2009- emails stolen and spread- lots of conspiracy

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127
Q

belief of global warming by demographic, US, spring

A

democrat- 69%
republican 41%
low ‘belief’ in republicans- media

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128
Q

belief of global warming by demographic, US, fall

A

democrat- 78%
republican- 47%
increase- extreme weather events, not-sure votes changing their minds
college degree little change, no degree big change- influenced by personal experience

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129
Q

issues with science journalism

A 
scientists as communicators
discourse in scientific discipline
accuracy (sensationalism)
who is an expert and who isn't
journalistic balance - inadvertent journalistic bias
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130
Q

scientists as communicators

A

most scientists can’t communicate to the average person- they are not conducive to yes/no answers but media don’t report all the science

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131
Q

discourse in scientific discipline

A

if a scientific article is not your field, its hard to understand the jargon, and very hard to communicate it to the public- have to follow the things media wants + be true to the science
one small mistake can alter the science

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132
Q

accuracy

A

if not upheld, comes across as sensationalism

ie. statue of liberty drowning

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133
Q

who is an expert?

A

difficult to determine for general public- especially when papers publish articles in the science section that aren’t sound science

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134
Q

Journalistic balance

A

involves seeking out and reporting upon a variety of opinions associated with a news story
not biased- getting both sides of the story- this isn’t how it works in science, but is how it is done

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135
Q

problem with journalistic balance

A

inadvertent journalistic bias
journalists are supposed to give both sides of the story but this leads to giving a biased statement if there isn’t another side- in science there isn’t
contrasting pts. lead people to think there is uncertainty when there isn’t

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136
Q

how journalists obtain balance

A

microscale balance

macroscale balance

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137
Q

microscale balance

A

balance statement at the end

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138
Q

macroscale balance

A

equal column space for both opinions

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139
Q

Journalistic balance study of articles

A

Maxwell Boykoff, 2004
random sample of all articles on global warming
53% gave ~equal emphasis to human vs. natural reasons for global warming
35% focus on human causation but presented balanced view- included views of natural fluctuations
6% only suspicions of human contribution
94%- balanced/biased view

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140
Q

Journalistic balance study of news channels

A

Boycoff, 2008
6 news stations
70% of network news stories reported balanced coverage

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141
Q

Naomi Oreskes 2004 study

A

studied 928 articles in peer-reviewed scientific journals

no study disagreed with consensus view concerning role of greenhouse gases in causing global warming

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142
Q

Anderegg 2010 study

A

1372 publications

97-98% of climate researchers support IPCC findings

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143
Q

climate scientists who don’t believe climate change exists

A

their work still shows it does

ex. religious scientists who believe earth is robust

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144
Q

scientific method

A

observation stage: ask a question, observe/measure/describe
explanation/hypothesis stage: explain with theories
Prediction stage: use explanation to make prediction in another situation
experimental stage: conduct experiment to test prediction

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145
Q

if experimental stage fails

A

go back to explanation/hypothesis stage

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146
Q

if experimental stage succeeds

A

explanation/hypothesis stands

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147
Q

submitting a paper

A

1st review: 1% accepted, 50% major changes need, 20% minor, 30% rejected
final review: 63% accepted, 33% rejected, 5% withdrawn

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148
Q

scientific uncertainty

A

Aleatoric uncertainty

Epistemic uncertainty

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149
Q

Aleatoric uncertainty

A

irreducible- non-reversilbe, uncertainty can’t be reduced

ex. odds of rolling 2 6’s- ALWAYS 1/36

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150
Q

Epistemic uncertainty

A

reducible, uncertainty can be reduced by further research

can’t see details in a picture- zoom in

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151
Q

Scientists strive to reduce

A

epistemic uncertainty

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152
Q

uncertainties in climate predictions

A

uncertainty in climate feedbacks
uncertainty in future emissions scenarios (lots of aleatoric)
unknown unknowns

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153
Q

biggest uncertainty

A

cloud feedback

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154
Q

climate sensitivity

A

amount of T increase if you were to double CO2 in atmosphere

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155
Q

Obfuscating the public, 2002 US republican memo

A

need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate..
recruit experts sympathetic to your view..
challenge views by using professionals (scientists) not politicians..

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156
Q

scientific uncertainty is different than

A

policy/opinion uncertainty

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157
Q

manufactured grassroots organizations

A

astroturf organizations

ex. friends of science, swift boat veterans for truth

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158
Q

what do astroturf organizations do

A 
issue press releases
write letters to editor
fill blogs with comments
email reporters
publish and disseminate reports from their 'experts'
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159
Q

media interest in global warming, 1997

A

major increase in Globe and Mail

kyoto- global plan, didn’t influence provincial

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160
Q

media interest in global warming, 2002

A

huge increase in Calgary news- ratification of kyoto- plans starting to be made provincially

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161
Q

media interest, 1988

A

first increase in interest, establishment of IPCC
Hansen Testimony
Canada hosts international climate conference
Heat waves, drought in US

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162
Q

media interest, 1990

A

IPCC first assessment report (FAR)

Canada’s green plan

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163
Q

media interest, 1992

A

supplementary report to IPCC

Rio Earth Summit

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164
Q

media interest, 1996

A

IPCC 2nd assessment report (SAR)

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165
Q

media interest, 2001

A

IPCC 3rd assessment report (TAR)

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166
Q

media interest, 2005

A

Hurricane Katrina

G8 meeting in Scotland

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167
Q

media interest, 2006

A

new global mean T record

Al Gore- inconvenient truth

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168
Q

media interest, 2007

A

interest sky rockets
IPCC 4th assessment (AR4)
Record Arctic sea ice melt back

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169
Q

Boycoff 2007

A

comparing US to UK for balance
UK has significantly higher coverage
UK- newspaper coverage is nearly always fact based
US- coverage isn’t mostly fact based till 2006

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170
Q

2009-2010 decrease in public belief

A

scientist emails stolen and uploaded to Russian server, posted on blogs
emails misunderstood
ex. ‘used a trick to solve something’

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171
Q

media interest in global warming 2007-2012

A

2007 was the highest, drop constantly after that- Immediacy- old news

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172
Q

Science in policy

A

science plays a crucial role in informing policy deliberations
science cannot prescribe policy outcomes
science can say what to expect, can’t decide what society should do

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173
Q

scientists responsibility

A

university scientists have responsibility to communicate results of, and respond to questions about their research to those who fund it (public)

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174
Q

public responsibility

A

education is crucial to successful democracy

demand better access to government science

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175
Q

Stephen Harpers rules controlling interviews with journalists

A

80% drop in media coverage of climate change science

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176
Q

IPCC established by

A

World Meteorological Organization

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177
Q

Hansen Testimony

A

1988, ‘Grandfather of climate science’, 99% confident global warming underway, testimony to US senate committe

178
Q

Canada hosts major international climate conference

A

1988, Changing Atmosphere: implications for Global security

179
Q

Jean-Baptiste-Joseph Fourier

A

1824- heat as light penetrates air more than it does when it repassess as non-luminous heat
ie. insolation penetrates atmosphere easier than IR

180
Q

John Tyndall

A

1861, built contraption to test absorption, radiation, and conduction of different gases

181
Q

Svante August Arrhenius

A

1896, globally averaged surface warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2- 5º in tropics, 6º in high latitudes

182
Q

Guy Callendar

A

1936, calculated atmos. CO2 based on constant emissions- 346ppm by 2100, 373 by 2200
calculated warming as 0.39ºC @ 330ppm and .57ºC @ 360ppm
thought the warming would be a good thing

183
Q

current atmos. [CO2] rising by

A

> 2ppm/yr

now- 398?ppm

184
Q

WMO definition of normal weather

A

average over a period of 30yrs.. currently using 1981-2010

185
Q

radiative forcing

A

change in the average net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (incoming - outgoing)

186
Q

positive radiative forcing

A

warms earth

greenhouse gases

187
Q

negative radiative forcing

A

acts to cool earth
volcanic eruption
reduction in solar intensity

188
Q

global warming based on physics

A

warm climates can’t be maintained unless there is an excess of greenhouse gases; if gases are increased, positive radiative forcing occurs until earth reaches a new global radiative equilibrium
warms until incoming = outgoing

189
Q

climate sensitivity findings

A

Arrhenius 5-6ºC
IPCC 1-5th AR 1.5-4.5ºC
Charney report- 1.5-4.5ºC
35 years of research worldwide- same climate sensitivity

190
Q

Charney Report

A

1979- asses climate changes resulting from man made releases of CO2 into the atmos.
“We may not be given a warning until CO2 loading is such that appreciable climate change is inevitable”

191
Q

First World Climate conference

A

1979- United Nations World Climate Programme- improve understanding of the climate system and apply understanding for the benefit of society
United Nations World Climate Research Programme- to determine the predictability of climate and the effect of human activities

192
Q

1980 US assessments

A

US National Academy of Sciences- concerned about environ. changes of this magnitude– need more research
US environmental protection agency- argic. conditions will be significantly altered, enviro. and economic systems disrupted, political institutions stressed, sense of urgency

193
Q

Villach conference

A

1985- WMO int’l conference- economic and social decisions are made based on past climatic data- unreliable guide, urgently need to refine estimates of climate to improve decisions
(ex. storm drains)

194
Q

CO2 in ocean

A

warmer waters lower potential

195
Q

aerosol lifetime

A

<10km, few days (rain)
stratosphere- 1-2 yrs
greenhouse gases last much longer.. after effects of aerosols gone- much more rapid warming

196
Q

Villach conference conclusion 2

A

climate change = sea level rise = acid depositions = threat to O3

197
Q

Villach conference conclusion 3

A

some warming inevitable, rate/degree of future warming could be affected by gov’t policies on energy, fossil fuels, emission of gg

198
Q

Toronto conference

A

1988- Mulroney opened up climate panel in canada for recommendation, key environmental policies developed, canadas green plan
reduce CO2 by ~20% by 2005

199
Q

CO2 emission growth rates

A

1990-1999 1%/yr
2000-2012 ~3%/yr
this beyond what skeptics called over the top

200
Q

Margaret Thatcher

A

UK conservative, created best climate research centre

201
Q

CO2 emissions by nation

A 
developed nations slight decrease
developing nations major increase
increase in 2011 compared to 2010
China 9.9%
Australia 8.4 %
US -2%
Canada 2%
202
Q

IPCC

A

intergovernmental panel on climate change

established in 1988 by WMO (world meteorological organization) and UNEP (united nations envrionment programme)

203
Q

IPCC Mandate

A

the role of IPCC is to assess on an objective basis, the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding human-induced climate change, potential impacts and options for mitigation

204
Q

IPCC working group I (WGI)

A

Define problem- assess the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change

205
Q

IPCC WGII

A

Vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptability) and impacts- how does problem affect us?

206
Q

IPCC WGIII

A

what can be done about it- assess the mitigation

207
Q

IPCC FAR

A

1990, influential in formation of UNFCCC at Earth Summit

208
Q

UNFCCC

A

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
objective: stabilize gg’s at a level that would prevent dangerous interference w/ climate system
ratified by 194 countries

209
Q

IPCC SAR

A

1995, influential on adoption of Kyoto

210
Q

under Kyoto Protocol Canada

A

was to reduce egg’s by 6% relative to 1990 levels over 2008-2012
only country to ratify and pull out

211
Q

IPCC TAR

A

2001

212
Q

IPCC AR4

A

2007

synthesis report to integrate 3WGs

213
Q

developing the IPCC AR4 WGI

A

2003- determine layout, approve table of contents
2004- teams made– writing tasks assigned
Jan 2005- 0th order draft- get a sense of whats out there and what each person will focus on
A 05- 23 page review for 0th order draft
M-Aug 05- prepare 1st draft
N 05- 172 pages of review for 1st draft
March 06- 2nd draft
J 06- 173 pages of review (1331 comments)
Sep 06- final draft
J-F 07- plenary to approve WG1

214
Q

developing IPCC 5th assessment

A

First order draft sent for review D 2011

final plenary S 2013

215
Q

final plenary

A

every word must be approved unanimously by every member state

216
Q

developing an IPCC assessment

A

~4yr process involving 100s of scientists

217
Q

in the NH 83-2012 was

A

likely the warmest 30-yr period in the last 1400 yrs

218
Q

ocean warming

A

dominates increase in energy, accounting for >90% of E accumulated btw 71-2010

219
Q

atmospheric [CO2, CH4, N2]

A

have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000yrs

220
Q

human influence

A

extremely likely to be the dominant cause of observed warming since mid-20th century

221
Q

aspects of climate change will persist

A

for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped

substantial multi-century climate change commitment

222
Q

top 11 warmest years since 1880, anomaly relative to 1901-2000 average

A

2014- .69, 2010- .66, 2005- .65, 1998- .63, 2013-.62, 2003- .62, 2002- .61, 2006- .59, 2009- .59, 2007- .59, 2012- .57, 2004- .57

223
Q

Copenhagen Accord

A

2009, 114 nations have taken note- deep cuts in emissions are required to hold increase in T below 2ºC

224
Q

if countries meet voluntary targets under Copenhagen Accord

A

2ºC is almost certainly broken
3ºC has 50% chance of being broken this century
4ºC follows if emissions are not curtailed
disconnect between policy and science, not going to help

225
Q

Greenhouse gas reduction targets act

A

January 2008- 33% below 07 by 2020; 6% by 2012; 18% by 2016; 80% by 2050

a. Emissions offset regulation
b. Carbon neutral government regulation

226
Q

May 2008

A

Carbon tax act
Greenhouse gas reduction (cap and trade) act
gg reduction (renewable & low carbon fuel requirements)
gg reduction (vehicle emissions standards)
local gov’t (green communities) statutes amendment act
utilities commission ammendment act

227
Q

Greenhouse gas reduction (cap & trade) act

A

a. reporting regulation
b. offsets regulation
c. emissions trading regulation

228
Q

Greenhouse gas reduction (emissions standards) statutes amendment act

A

may 2008

landfill gas management regulation

229
Q

most effective legislature

A

carbon tax

230
Q

June 2010

A

clean energy act

231
Q

2008

A

large number of policies brought in

232
Q

BC electricity supply

A 
Hydro- 82%
Biomass- 11%
Natural gas 6%
Wind 1%
within clean energy act
233
Q

BC green standards

A

leaders of emission reduction and green vehicle use

234
Q

since carbon tax

A

rest of canada increase in emissions

BC decrease in emissions

235
Q

provincial changes in emissions 2000-2011

A

Quebec -15%
BC -15%
Ontario -26%
Saskatchewan +63%

236
Q

quebecs changes in emissions

A

lowest to begin with in 2000 and still had large change to 2011

237
Q

ontario changes in emissions

A

-26% - very large change due to shutting down coal-fire plants

238
Q

total carbon emissions in millions of metric tonnes

A

china 23x10^5
US 15x10^5
India, russia, japan, germany, iran, south korea, canada (9)

239
Q

per capita carbon emissions in metric tonnes

A

US (12) 4.7, Australia (14) 4.57, Canada (18) 4, Iceland (64) 1.67, Chad (213) 0.01 [400x canada]

240
Q

why is canada number 18 in per capita emissions

A

only because top countries (1-11) are very small petrol states, 18th is not a good place..

241
Q

chinas emissions problems

A

our problem– we shut down our manufacturing to get products cheaper in china, they know that it is unstable and are lead producers of renewables– why don’t we realize this?????

242
Q

top 4 emitters of CO2 PgC/yr

A

India- 7.5% increase
EU -2.8%
US -1.8%
China 9.9%

243
Q

CO2 emissions by fossil fuel type

A

Coal 43%
Oil 34%
Gas 18%
Cement 5%

244
Q

BC starts falling behind

A

2012, clean energy act modified by adding ‘other than electricity to serve demand from facilities that liquefy natural gas for export by ship’

245
Q

Greenhouse Gas Industrial Reporting and Control Act

A

2014, using ‘Alberta wording’ - rates of emissions

246
Q

The ‘pipedream’

A

2013- lng will make BC debt free, Christy Clark; lng will create >100,000 jobs; funds could help eliminate sales tax and invest in education and communities

247
Q

truth about LNG

A

election campaign because nobody expected this gov’t would win

248
Q

current LNG prices

A

UK 11/MMBtu
Asia 16/MMBtu
NA 6/MMBtu
price gap, but will it remain fixed? thats we are counting on

249
Q

Clean Energy BC conference

A

2012, Asia LNG price ~10$ higher, China has lower demand than NA, China has 3X shale gas that all of Canada has combined (not just BC)

250
Q

World natural gas reserves

A

Russia, Iran, Qatar have 60% of world supply, Canada has nearly 0 in comparison
and Russia is much closer to China

251
Q

LNG facility

A

Kitimat- pulp/paper mill closed, not enough room for plants

4/5 big companies have announced that they are out

252
Q

LNG companies

A 
Chevron/Apache
Shell Canada
Methanex
Petronas/Progress
BG/Spectra
253
Q

Solutions to global warming

A

technological
behavioural
market instruments

254
Q

Site C Dam

A

to subsidize energy to LNG companies

why not couple existing dams (batteries) with other resources- wind/geothermal (rechargers)

255
Q

tragedy of the commons

A

costs distributed across populations, benefits to gov’t = collapse inevitable

256
Q

how to avoid collapse?

A

regulate number of cows a former is entitled to put on land
cap number of cows allowed
put a head tax on each cow
regulation, cap & tread, emissions tax

257
Q

Clean Tech Sector

A 
clean tech report BC:
202 clean tech organizations in BC
revenues increased 57% from 2008-2011
8400 employees in 2011
don't need to rely on oil/gas/coal
258
Q

US green energy

A

3.4million green energy jobs 2011
4X rate of jobs from 2010
booming, we should be following suit

259
Q

clean tech definition

A

technology involved in the generation, transportation, storage, and end use of renewable energy

260
Q

companies looking for green energy

A

BMW, Washington

Google, Oregon

261
Q

technological advances

A

wireless technology, computers, internet, space travel
internal combustion engine??
we haven’t been able to make any advances with this?

262
Q

scientists have done their job

A

now politicians must do theirs

starting with education

263
Q

what happens when the suns radiation reaches the atmosphere

A

reflection
scattering
absorption

264
Q

angle of incidence

A

= angle of reflection

265
Q

albedo

A

fraction of incident radiation reflected by some particle/surface
= reflected radiation / incident radiation

266
Q

planetary albedo

A

~30%

267
Q

cloud albedo

A

~20%

268
Q

variations in albedo on the surface

A

fresh snow 75-95%
desert 25-30%
sea ice 30-40%

269
Q

what happens on low albedo surfaces

A

how to walk on– converted to heat instead of being reflected

270
Q

what happens on high albedo surfaces

A

easy to get sunburnt (while skiing)

271
Q

variation of albedo with solar altitude for a flat/undisturbed water surface

A

albedo vs. solar altitude

100% at 0º– decreases exponentially with increasing angle– close to 0% at 90º

272
Q

reflection is mainly dependent on

A

clouds

273
Q

scattering

A

mostly by gases, radiation is dispersed in all directions

reflection is a special form of scattering

274
Q

scattering is dependent on

A

wavelength

275
Q

wavelength dependent scattering

A

Rayleigh scattering

276
Q

Rayleigh scattering

A

elastic scattering of light/electromagnetic radiation by particles &laquo_space;than the wavelength of radiation

277
Q

Rayleigh scattering of blue light

A

sunrise/sunsets

blue has been scattered away, left with longer wavelengths

278
Q

Absorption

A

gases are selective absorbers of radiation, none are effective in the visible band

279
Q

wavelength of non-absorption by gases

A

in IR range- atmospheric window

above IR range- visible light

280
Q

H2O_l absorption

A

very absorptive gas- big/wide absorption bands

281
Q

total atmospheric absorption

A

UV almost all absorbed by O3

visible barely absorbed

282
Q

why increasing CO2 is such a big deal in atmospheric absorption

A

increasing CO2 increases absorption in atmos. window- if CO2 was absorbed in the same band as another gas wouldn’t be as big of a deal

283
Q

solar radiation spectrum

A

peak at visible spectrum

shows that black body is a good approximation for the sun

284
Q

most visible radiation

A

reaches earths surface, ~50% is absorbed by earth surface

285
Q

all matter with a T

A

radiates electromagnetic radiation

286
Q

the hotter an object is

A

the shorter the wavelength of its peak emissions

287
Q

hotter objects give off

A

more intense radiation than a cooler object

288
Q

gases selectively absorb radiation depending on

A

the wavelength of that radiation

289
Q

longwave radiation is selectively absorbed by

A

water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide– which reradiate energy towards the earths surface

290
Q

most of the atmosphere

A

is in the troposphere

291
Q

IR satellite image

A 
darker = hotter
clouds = lighter = colder - higher in troposphere, emitting less radiation
292
Q

wavenumber

A

k = 2.pi / lambda

units - 1/cm

293
Q

venus spectrum compared to mars

A

very similar but venus is much hotter

emission higher up in atmosphere?

294
Q

outgoing longwave radiation spectrum graphs

A

depression in spectrum at ~600/cm where CO2 absorbing and re-emitting
~1000/cm O3 absorption

295
Q

troposphere temperature

A

atmosphere cools with altitude

296
Q

cooler gasses emit

A

less intense long wave radiation

297
Q

absorbing longwave radiation

A

warms the atmosphere at the altitude the radiation is absorbed

298
Q

greenhouse gas absorption partly determine

A

atmospheric temperature structure

but, atmospheric T structure determines strength of the greenhouse effect

299
Q

more energy coming in than going out

A

net positive imbalance

300
Q

more energy going out than coming in

A

net negative imbalance

301
Q

earths mean temperature

A

14.4ºC

302
Q

earths mean temperature without natural greenhouse effect

A

-19.4ºC

303
Q

atmosphere absorption of solar radiation

A

atmosphere is ~clear to solar radiation

304
Q

greenhouse analogy

A

bad because greenhouses reflect, the atmosphere absorbs and re-emits
also, glass blocks IR

305
Q

temperature gradient

A

change in temperature with distance
equator- warm, pole-cold
earth surface-warm, tropopause-cold

306
Q

heat flows to cold via

A

conduction
convection
advection
radiation

307
Q

conduction

A

within a substance or between substances in direct physical contact
kinetic energy of atoms/molecules transferred by collisions between neighbouring atoms/molecules

308
Q

kinetic energy =

A

1/2mv^2

309
Q

heat

A

total kinetic energy of atoms/molecules making up a substance

310
Q

temperature

A

the measure of the average kinetic energy of the individual atoms/molecules making up a substance

311
Q

Kelvin =

A

ºC + 273.15

312
Q

ºC =

A

5/9[ºF - 32]

313
Q

ºF =

A

[9/5.ºC] + 32

314
Q

0K =

A

-273.15ºC = -459.7ºF = no molecule motion

315
Q

calorie

A

amount of heat required to raise the T of 1g of water from 14.5-15.5ºC

316
Q

1Joule =

A

1kg.m^2/s^2 = 0.2389calories

317
Q

heat is conducted

A

from Earths warm surface, to overlying air

318
Q

Conduction is only significant

A

in a very thin layer of air in immediate contact with Earths surface

319
Q

air as a conductor

A

very bad, insolating

320
Q

convection

A

more important, effective in transporting heat verticalling in troposphere (than conduction)
vertical transfer of heat within a fluid via motion of the fluid

321
Q

convection in the atmosphere

A

air overlying ground warms from conduction— rises— cools—sinks

322
Q

sensible heating =

A

conduction + convection

‘thermals’ - heating can be felt/sensed

323
Q

Advection

A

the horizontal transport of heat by the winds- horizontal transport of air mass by wind

324
Q

specific heat

A

amount of heat required to change T of 1 gram of a substance by 1ºC

325
Q

some specific heats

A

water - 1
Ice- 0.478
sand- .188 (1/5 the heat needed to raise water T)
silver - 0.056

326
Q

water possesses

A

thermal stability

327
Q

low specific heat

A

takes less energy to change T

328
Q

air temperatures are regulated by

A

the T of the surface over which the air resides

329
Q

exhibit smaller seasonal variations

A

maritime and ultramaritime (in reference to subcontinental and continental)

330
Q

why W maritime/ultramaritime exhibit lower variation than E

A

Westerly prevailing winds- winds come from the W- blow over the continent

331
Q

produce temperature gradients

A

imbalances in rates of heating and cooling from one place to another

332
Q

circulate and redistribute heat

A

atmosphere and ocean

333
Q

thermals are what type of heating

A

sensible heating (conduction +convection)

334
Q

evapotranspiration is what type of heating

A

latent heating- transfer of heat as a consequence of changes in the phase of water

335
Q

freezing

A

liquid- solid

336
Q

gas-solid

A

deposition

337
Q

liquid-gas

A

evaporation

338
Q

condensation

A

gas-liquid

339
Q

melting

A

solid-liquid

340
Q

solid-gas

A

sublimation

341
Q

evaporation can occur at any T

A

depending on humidity

require more energy with lower T

342
Q

latent heat loss from the ocean

A

radiation–evaporation (from ocean)–condensation (cloud formation)

343
Q

cloud formation and heat

A

condensation releases heat as latent heat of vaporization
major transport of heat to poles
“condensational heating”

344
Q

incoming shortwave radiation

A

342W/m^2

345
Q

reflected shortwave radiation

A

107W/m^2

346
Q

outgoing longwave radiation

A

235W/m^2

347
Q

energy transfers at the top of the atmosphere

A

incoming shortwaves
reflected shortwave
outgoing longwave
in balance

348
Q

energy transfer at planetary surface

A 
Absorbed shortwave
Absorbed longwave
Emitted longwave
Sensible heat
latent heat
balance
349
Q

absorbed shortwave radiation

A

168W/m^2

350
Q

absorbed longwave radiation

A

324W/m^w

351
Q

emitted longwave radiation

A

390W/m^2

352
Q

sensible heat

A

24W/m^w

353
Q

latent heat

A

78W/m^2

354
Q

net transfer of heat from surplus to deficit

A

tropics: absorbed > emitted
polar: emitted > absorbed- rate of cooling exceeds rate of solar radiational warming

355
Q

why is there 3 cells in each hemisphere

A

heat imbalances and because earth spins (corriolos)

356
Q

subtropic dry zone

A

sinking air between hadley and ferrel cell (~30º)

357
Q

evaporative cooling

A

device that cools air through the evaporation of water

works by employing water’s large enthalpy of vaporization

358
Q

meridional flow

A

when the general air flow pattern is N-S, or S-N, along the Earth’s longitude lines

359
Q

mean meridional circulation

A

hadley cell circulation

360
Q

thermohaline circulation driven by

A

density

brine rejection

361
Q

brine rejection

A

glacier growth adds salt– increases density– sinks– flows S

362
Q

atlantic meridional overturning circulation

A

gulf stream–transports heat poleward– warmer climate in UK

363
Q

drives air-sea-ice system

A

solar radiation

364
Q

heat imbalances in the atmosphere

A

temperature gradients-imbalances radiational heating and cooling
weather- atmosphere responses to redistribute heat

365
Q

seasonality

A

need for heat redistribution varies w/ season- atmos. response and weather vary throughout year

366
Q

Radiational controls

A

conditions that influence local radiation balance and local air T
time of day and year
cloud cover
surface cover

367
Q

radiational controls, time of day and year

A

solar altitude
daily fluctuations- min- max, deficit- surplus-deficit
low latitudes- larger variations in day/night than seasonal

368
Q

radiational controls, cloud cover

A

daytime: cooling- reflects insolation
nighttime: warming- traps IR, blocks radiational cooling

369
Q

radiational controls, surface cover

A

albedo, and specific heat
differences in coastal vs. inland
clearcutting
ice cover

370
Q

isotherm

A

line connecting places of equal temperature

isotherms are straighter in SH- less land mass, zonally symmetric

371
Q

why are tropics more susceptible to biodiversity loss w/ climate change

A

organisms are adapted to much smaller T ranges than poleward organisms

372
Q

annual temperature ranges

A

small near equator
increase with latitude
greatest over continents

373
Q

January-July surface air temperature difference

A

atlantic ocean ~5º

Siberia ~50º

374
Q

estimates of total radiative forcing from human activities

A

AR4 - 1.6W/m^2

AR5- 2.3W/m^2

375
Q

CO2 forcing

A

~+1.8W/m^2

376
Q

WMGHG

A

well mixed greenhouse gases

377
Q

WMGHG forcing

A

~+1W/m^2

378
Q

contrails

A

thin clouds really high up from planes- result in warming (small forcing)

379
Q

Aerosols + clouds forcing

A

0- (-1)W/m^2

large error bars- complicated relationship, some of the uncertainty problems in future predictions

380
Q

Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide sources

A

Combustion of fossil fuels
cement production
deforestation

381
Q

combustion of fossil fuels

A

fossil fuel + O2 = CO2 + H2O(g) + heat

382
Q

cement production

A

limestone (CaCO3) + Clay/SiO2 + heat – CO2

produces ‘clinker’

383
Q

deforestation

A 
lowers carbon sink
increases albedo (local cooling)
384
Q

cumulative emissions 1850-2011

A

fossil fuel combustion + cement pruduction- 374 gigatonnes of carbon (10^9Kg)
deforestation + land use- 163 rigatonis of C

385
Q

today deforestation has contributed

A

1/3 of the problem

386
Q

reforestation

A

could contribute 1/3 of the solution

387
Q

2011 carbon dioxide emission

A

fossil fuels 9Gt of C
cement .5Gt
land use .9Gt

388
Q

fertilization effect

A

if CO2 limiting nutrient for plant growth– increasing CO2– increases plant growth
saturation at 800-1000ppm

389
Q

photosynthesis

A

HwO + CO2 +hv – CH2O + O2

390
Q

soil respiration

A

microorganisms consume organic matter in soils and produce CO2

391
Q

soils holds carbon

A

3000-4000 Gt C
mostly dead organic matter
-another problem of deforestation

392
Q

more soil respiration when

A

soils are warmer– microorganisms have higher metabolisms at higher T’s

393
Q

warmer soils =

A

higher soils respiration = less C in soil

394
Q

ocean carbon physical pump =

A 
solubility pump
function of pCO2
most important in regards to anthropogenic C
395
Q

ocean carbon cycle

A

biological + physical pumps

sediment- circulation- upwelling- cooling- sinking- sedimentation

396
Q

ocean carbon biological pump

A

difficult to measure/understand, largest cycling of C in ocean
sinking O matter from surface- deep- O consumed- respired- adds CO2 to deep ocean

397
Q

long term ocean carbon cycle

A

CO2 drawn down in rock formation– subduction–eventual volcanic outgassing

398
Q

CO2 absorption by surface ocean

A

CO2 + H2O – H+ + HCO3-

~1yr

399
Q

CO2 more soluble

A

in cold water

400
Q

ocean carbon physical pump

A

CO2 dissolved in cold, high latitudes, enters deep ocean at deep water formation sites– cold waters upwell at tropic latitude- CO2 returns to atmosphere

401
Q

medium term carbon sinks

A

carbonate dissolution

silicate-rock weathering

402
Q

carbonate dissolution

A

CO2 + CaCO3 + H2O – Ca2+ + 2HCO3-

~6000yrs

403
Q

silicate-rock weathering

A

CO2 + CaSiO3– CaCO3 + SiO2

~300,000yrs

404
Q

enteric fermentation

A

burping/farting

405
Q

anthropogenic methane sources

A

natural gas, enteric fermentation, landfills, coal mining, manure management, petroleum, wastewater treatment, rice cultivation

406
Q

natural methane sources

A

wetlands 76%
termites 11%
oceans 8%
hydrates 5%

407
Q

natural CH4 removal

A

reaction w/ OH- (hydroxyl ion) in atmosphere

408
Q

atmospheric lifetime of methane

A

12 years

409
Q

methane on 100yr timescale

A

CH4 25X more potent than CO2

410
Q

on 20yr timescale

A

CH4 72X more potent as a gg than CO2

411
Q

anthropogenic nitrous oxide sources

A

agricultural soil, manure, transportation, wastewater treatment

412
Q

natural nitrous oxide sources

A

temperate and tropical soils

413
Q

natural nitrous oxide removal

A

breakdown by photolysis in atm.

414
Q

atmospheric lifetime of N2O

A

114 years

415
Q

on 100yr scale N2O

A

298X more potent as gg than CO2

416
Q

water vapour feedback

A

very powerful, tightly constrained by Clausius Clapeyron relation

417
Q

Clausius-Clapeyron

A

7% increase in H2O (g) per 1ºC

leads to cloud formation and precipitation

418
Q

stratospheric ozone

A

good, absorbs UV

419
Q

tropospheric ozone

A

bad, pollutant

420
Q

increases tropospheric ozone

A

by-product of chemical rxn’s involving other pollutants
not regulated under Kyoto
warms

421
Q

ozone atmospheric lifetime

A

short, weeks at most

422
Q

annual CO2 cycle

A

up and down yearly- overall increasing trend

lowest in spring/summer (NH) b/c there’s more land– more vegetation, NH dominates CO2 cycle

423
Q

decrease in stratospheric ozone

A

more UV reaches surface
less outgoing IR absorbed
cools surface

424
Q

[CO2]

A

dec 2014- 398.78ppm
dec 2013- 396.81ppm
annual average 2013- 395.51
annual avg. 2012- 392.51

425
Q

annual mean global growth rate of CO2 in ppm/yr

A 
70-79 1.3
80-89 1.6
90-99 1.5
00-10 1.9
2011 1.7
2012 2.41
2013 2.52
2014 2.43
426
Q

1Pg

A

1 Petagram = 10^15g = 1 billion metric tonnes = 1 gigatonne (Gt)

427
Q

1kg C =

A

3.67kg CO2

428
Q

Annex B

A

developed nations

429
Q

emission intensity

A

average emission rate from source, relative to intensity of activity
ex. g CO2 released/MJ of energy produced
ratio of gg emissions produced : gross domestic product (GDP)

430
Q

top 4 emitters of CO2

A

China, USA, EU, India

431
Q

current LUC emissions

A

land-use change, ~10% of total CO2 emissions

432
Q

emissions from land use change by region

A

tropical - large increase since~1960

temperate- decrease since ~1960

433
Q

average fate of anthropogenic CO2

A

FF 89% + LUC 11% —– atmosphere 46% + land plants 28% + ocean 26%

434
Q

Canadian emissions of anthropogenic gg’s

A

CO2 78.8%
CH4 13.1%
N2O 6.8%
PFCs, HFCs, SF6 1.3%

435
Q

greenhouse gas emissions by province

A

alberta 34%
ontario 25%
quebec 12%
saskatchewan 10.5%

436
Q

emissions by sector (Canada)

A

industry 36%
transportation 28%
electricty/heat generation 15%

437
Q

per household emissions

A

vehicles 45%
heating/cooling 17%
waste 13%
air travel 13%

438
Q

US emissions by sector

A

transportation 27%- same
industry 21%- 15%lower
electricity/heat 34- 20%higher

439
Q

grandfathers of climate science

A

1824 Fourier
1861 John Tyndall
1896 Arrhenius
1936 Guy Callendar

440
Q

it all started going wrong in BC

A

2012 Clean energy act modified, Clean energy BC conference (LNG)
2013 AR5, the pipedream
2014 Report emissions as rates

EOS (7 decks)

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