Electoral Process and Direct Democracy Flashcards
1
Q
How often are presidential elections?
A
Every 4 years
2
Q
What happens when a president dies?
A
VP takes over - doesn’t trigger an election
3
Q
What day does the election happened?
A
The first Tuesday after the first Monday in November
4
Q
What are mid term elections?
A
A test of the current president
5
Q
What must presidential candidates be?
A
Natural Born, 35 years old, Residency of 14 years
6
Q
What amendment limits presidents to two terms?
A
23rd Amendment 1951
7
Q
What is usually a significant requirement?
A
Political experience - Trump didn’t have any
8
Q
Where do most successful candidates come from?
A
Congressional backgrounds - mainly senators - or state governorships
9
Q
How many presidents between 1968 and 2020 have been senators or state governors?
A
11 senators, 6 state senators
10
Q
How many have been vP?
A
7
11
Q
What was part of Trump’s appeal?
A
Not a party of the Washington elite
12
Q
What has never happened?
A
An independent candidate win the White House - party endorsement is important
13
Q
Who else came outside of party establishment?
A
Eisenhower 1952
14
Q
What have presidential elections been dominated by?
A
White Men
15
Q
Who was the democratic race between in 2008?
A
Clinton and Obama
16
Q
What was significant about Obama?
A
First African American president
17
Q
What was significant about Hilary?
A
First female presidential candidate in 2016.
18
Q
What has also been a feature of presidential candidates?
A
Being married and a “family man”
19
Q
Who was a Bachelor?
A
James Buchanan 1856
20
Q
What can candidates not do in the primaries?
A
Call upon party support - they are on their own
21
Q
Why do some presidential hopefuls fail?
A
Unable to put together a cohesive campaign
22
Q
What has become more important?
A
Telegenic - JFK vs Nixon
23
Q
What did Trump rely on heavily?
A
His skills of media manipulation
24
Q
What has the president become?
A
Celebrity politicians - Reagan and Trump
25
What also matters?
Policies and visions - emphasis on practical and relevant policies
26
What is essential?
Appeal to both the core vote in "red and blue" states but also to win battle in swing states.
27
What have recent campaigns focussed on?
Issues of concern to many middle class Americans - economy, tax, jobs and immigration
28
What criticisms have there been?
Politicians know how to campaign but don’t know how to govern - in campaign mode but unable to use powers effectively - progressives.
29
When was the term "invisible primaries" coined?
1976 by Arthur T Hadley
30
When does the invisible primary start?
18 months before the presidential election
31
What are the invisible primaries?
Opportunity for candidates to raise their profile, gain national recognition, raise money and lay foundations for a successful campaign.
32
How is success measured in the invisible primaries?
National media exposure - on TV through CNN's State of the Nation show and the like, or in newspapers like the New York Tomes or Washington Post. Sentiment that media can make or break someone in the invisible primaries.
33
When do candidates make a formal announcement of their candidacy?
Around a year before the election - have a clearer idea of their prospects
34
What is key to the early prospects of a candidate?
Polling - those that poll strongly at the outset are those most likely to emerge at or near the top following the primaries proper.
35
How many Democrats were in the invisible primaries in 2020?
29
36
How many Republicans were in the invisible primaries in 2015?
17
37
What formal events are there in the invisible primaries?
Debates
38
Who are usually the first to drop out of the race?
Those who don't have money
39
How much money did Ben Carson raise in 2016?
$58 million
40
How much money did Jeb Bush raise in 2016?
$34 million
41
How much of his own money did Trump use?
$18 million - added to the $25 million
42
What does conventional wisdom suggest?
The early front runner is usually the one who secures the nomination - all about momentum.
43
Who lead the primary in 2007?
Clinton not Obama
44
Since 1972, how many republican front runners got the candidacy?
7/8
45
How many front runners for the Democrats have won the candidacy?
5/10
46
What is the main purpose of primaries and caucuses?
Select delegates who are pledged to vote for a particular candidate at the national convention. Used to select party candidates for state and congressional elections.
47
Who usually gets selected?
Incumbents - Trump in 2020 and Obama in 2012
48
What is turnout for primaries or caucuses?
Low - tends to be the core voters and supporter
49
What do candidates tend to do?
Veer to the extremes to attract votes from their more ideologically strong supporters?
50
What can happen?
Personal animosity and negativity
51
What sparks personal animosity?
Candidates are considered out of touch, too old, too moderate and not conservative/liberal enough by rivals
52
What did Trump do in the 2016 Primaries?
Gave opponents unflattering nicknames - lying Ted or cry baby Runio
53
What are presidential primaries?
State based elections to select party candidates - chosen by ordinary and turn-out is higher than caucuses
54
What are presidential caucuses?
State-based meetings to select party candidates, but tend to have lower levels of engagement than primaries.
55
What is the main difference between presidential caucuses and primaries?
Primaries - voting takes place in the same way as for mainstream elections
Caucuses - voting takes place in person at a large venue
56
What kind of supporters do caucuses attract?
More ideological voters
57
Examples of caucus states?
Iowa and Dakota
58
What do states that tend to hold caucuses tend to be like?
Geographically large but sparsely populated
59
What dictates how primaries and caucuses operate?
State law - but they are all a popular test of candidates and all elect delegates
60
When do primaries run from?
January to June - timing determined by states
61
Why do some states opt to go early?
Maximise media coverage
62
Example of Early State?
New Hampshire - first primary
Iowa - first caucus
63
What is the most famous grouping of regional states?
Super Tuesday - 2020 had 14 states voting
64
What can happen on Super Tuesday?
Up to a third of all delegates are elected on Super Tuesday - strong performance can secure a nomination
65
What has become a trend?
Front-loading the election - states move their primaries up in the process to give their votes more influence
66
How many states held primaries or caucuses before March in 1980?
11
67
How many states held primaries before March in 2008?
42 - including Texas and California
68
What happened in 2016 and 2020?
Move back towards an extended primary season but all over by the end of March
69
What can primaries be?
Open or closed
70
What is a closed primary?
Only those who have registered an affiliation can vote in that party's primary
71
What is an open primary and what can happen?
Anyone can vote in an open primary - can lead to cross-over voting
72
What happened in 2008?
Significant number of Republicans and independents endorsed Obama
73
Example of a closed primary state?
Delaware and Kentucky
74
What do some primaries do?
Adopt a winner-takes-all approach to awarding delegates - others have a proportional approach
75
Example of a partially closed state?
Utah and South Dakota
76
What is a partially closed state?
Up to the party to decide if they let in unaffiliated or opposition voters - can exclude opposition voters but let in unaffiliated votes
77
Which states don't have a winner takes all approach with EC votes?
Maine and Nebraska
78
What is the threshold for delegates in most states?
10% or 15%
79
What are all democrat primaries?
Proportional
80
What states are not proportional for Republican primaries?
Arizona, Florida and Ohio
81
How many voters attended the 2012 Republican caucus?
2108
82
What % of the vote did Cruz, Trump and Rubio gain in 2016?
27%, 24% and 23% respectively
83
Where did all three of McCain, Romney and Trump lose but won the nomination?
Iowa
84
What is a bellwether state?
Win this state, win the nomination
85
Example of a Bellwether state?
New Hampshire
86
Who hasn't won New Hampshire?
Clinton 1992, Bush 2000, Obama 2008 and Biden 2020
87
What does New Hampshire do in terms of candidate performance?
Lays fown a marker for how an individual will perform - also raises the profile and attracts campaign moeny
88
Why was Clinton dubbed the "comeback kid"
Clinton came second in 1992, recovering from early controversy surrounding his personal life (drug use, draft dodging, infidelity) and was able to exceed expectation
89
Where didn't hold a Democrat Primary in 2012?
Virginia, South Carolina, Florida and New York
90
How many states did Obama get less than 90% in 2012?
14
91
How many states did Obama get less than 60% in 2012?
4
92
Who took 40% of the vote in West Virginia?
Keith Judd - despite serving s prison conviction for extortion
93
When did presidents face a serious challenge from within their own parties?
1976: Ford v Reagan, 1980: Carter and Kennedy and 1992 Bush and Buchanan
94
What does friendly fire do?
Damages credibility in the eyes of voters and provides ammunition for political opponents
95
What has happened since the McGovern Fraser reforms?
Primaries have become the norm following 1968 - turnout increased
96
What % of people voted in Montana in 2020?
45.7%
97
How many people voted in North Dakota in 2020?
2.6%
98
Who are the most likely to vote?
Higher levels of educational attainment or higher income groups are amongst the most likely to vote - also older voters.
99
What % of under 24s voted in 2016?
6%
100
What % of 45+ voted?
75%
101
Where had the highest youth turnout in the 2022 midterms?
Michigan - 37%
102
Why do competitive races raise turnout?
There is a genuine contest between candidates
103
Why do later primaries have lower turnout?
Nomination race can be effectively won and most candidates drop out
104
How were candidates chosen before 1968?
Opaque way by party bosses at a state level - lots of power to the elites - lack of democracy
105
When and why did Dems initiate the reforms?
1967 - Humphrey was chosen as nominee without having entering primaries
106
What was the average of voters in 1968?
11%
107
What was the average of voters in 2016?
20%
108
How many hopeful candidates were there in 1968?
5 across both parties
109
How many hopeful candidates were there in 2016?
22
110
What could the primaries be described as?
Survival of the fittest - political natural selection
111
How many days before the New Hampshire Primaries did Nixon enter the race?
40 days
112
How much money did Sanders spend in 2016?
$235 million
113
How much money did Clinton spend in 2016?
$275 million
114
What does the ridiculous amount of money bring questions about?
Does money buy the nomination
115
What has media been described as?
King makers - the way they present the candidates and their campaigns
116
What does the debate process do?
Relegate policy behind image and personality
117
What do primaries also lead to?
Infighting between parties and can be damaging to the general election
118
When did the Democrats introduce peer review?
1984 - introduction of super-delegates
119
What are super-delegates?
Party grandees, but have only been required to vote once - in 2008 to separate Clinton and Obama.
120
How have super-delegates been criticised?
Undemocratic and a break on radical candidates.
121
What would the abolition of caucuses do?
Increase participation
122
What would abolishing closed primaries do?
Increase participation
123
What would changing the running order of primaries do?
Avoid certain states holding too much sway
124
What would linking super-delegates to primary results mean?
Avoid the possibility of voters wishes being ignored by party elites
125
What would candidates choosing their own delegates avoid?
Faithless voters
126
What would single national primary elections do?
Remove the federal aspect of the process and disadvantage both small states and relatively unknown candidates seeking to build up momentum over a series of contests by gaining endorsements and donations along the way.
127
What would rotating regional primaries mean?
Country is divided into four regions with each region taking turns at holding all their primaries on the same day
128
What would the disadvantage of regional primaries be?
Candidates with strong support in a particular region might gain a clear initial advantage/disadvantage.
129
What is the Delaware plan?
Allow small states to go first - four categories grouped by population size - four stage process.
130
How many of the Super Tuesday primaries did Biden win?
10/14
131
How were VPs chosen by the national convention?
Until 1980
132
What happened in 1984?
Mondale broke with tradition and announced his running mate - Geraldine Ferraro before the convention.
133
When did the Republicans begin announcing the VP before the convention?
1996
134
What is a balanced ticket?
Balance could be reflected in ideology, age, region, race, or gender.
135
How long had Biden been a senator for?
36 years - Former Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
136
Why was Chaney chosen?
Former White House Chief of Staff (Ford) and Secretary of Defence (Bush) as well as being a Congressman in the House.
137
Why else do presidents chose a VP?
Picking a rival, a presidential candidate can reunite a divided party.
138
What is the National Party Convention now?
Formal coronation of successful candidates
139
What do National Part conventions do?
Conclude the primary phase of the election process and sets the stages for the general election
140
What is one role of the National Party convention?
Chance to unite a divided party as former rivals line up to endorse the winner
141
What else does the NPC do?
Gives momentum to the candidates campaign - publicity - outline main policy themes
142
What do most conventions see?
A temporary boost in the polls
143
When did this bounce not happen?
2020
144
When are conventions usually held?
July or August
145
What is the convention in the order of NPC?
Challenging party goes first
146
Who decides the venue of NPC?
National Committee
147
Who attends?
Delegates chosen by the primaries and caucuses
148
What would happen in the past to chose presidential nominees?
Roll-call vote by state with delegates making up their minds about who to endorse
149
How are modern delegates committed to vote?
Required to vote for a particular candidate
150
What does the new system mean?
Winner is usually known before the convention starts
151
What happens if no single candidate receives a majority of delegates?
Brokered convention takes place
152
What is a brokered convention?
Delegates are no longer committed to a particular candidate and new candidates can enter the race who did not contest the primaries.
153
How many elections required more than one ballot between 1892 and 1952?
16 elections
154
When was this last required?
Not since 1956
155
What do NPCs decide?
Party Platform - policy platform
156
How is the platform decided on?
By a Platform Committee which takes soundings from voters across the US
157
When did the debate over party policy highlight party divisions?
2016
158
What was the 2016 Republican Convention dominated by?
Issues of sexuality and same-sex marriage after Obergefell v Hodges
159
What is the reality of the importance of policy?
Little reference is made to the platform during the election and term in office
160
What does the NPC do in theory?
Unites the party of the in-fighting of primaries
161
What happened in 2016?
Clinton and Sanders supporters were antagonistic at the convention
162
How do Conventions enthuse voters?
Televised events - acceptance speech - showcase for the presidency
163
How long is the GE campaign?
9 weeks - September through to November
164
What two issues dominate?
Campaign finance and televised debates
165
What is the concern with campaign finance?
Influence of wealthy individuals and organisations - is this elitist
166
When did this issue reach a peak?
1972 - Nixon relying on "fat-cats" to finance re-election
167
What did FECA 1974 introduce?
Limits on donations made by individuals, unions and corporations
168
What weakened FECA?
Congress with no bipartisan agreement and the SC
169
What was the ruling in Buckley v Valeo?
Limiting spending by individuals or political action committees were unconstitutional and were a violation of first amendment rights.
170
What happened in 1979?
Congress loosened the rules on soft money - side step FECA
171
What happened between 1976 and 2008?
Presidential campaigns were financed via matching funds - in essence public funds allocated by the FEC to eligible candidates.
172
What did Obama do in 2008?
Opted out of the funds - gave him more spending power
173
What did Obama do in 2014?
Signed legislation effectively ending the system of using public money to finance federal elections.
174
When was BICRA?
2002
175
Who introduced BICRA?
John McCain and Russell Feingold
176
What did BICRA do?
Banned soft money donations to political parties and limited the use of corporate and union money to fund ads discussing political issues within 60 days of a general election or 30 days of primary elections.
177
What was the response to BICRA?
527 groups emerged
178
What did the 527 Group do?
Raised millions of dollars for the 2004 election
179
What are PACS?
Political Action Committees
180
What case reinforced Citizens United?
Speechnow.org v FEC
181
How long have Super PACS had a major role in elections?
Since 2012
182
How have televised debates been organised since 1987?
By Non-partisan Commission on Presidential Debates
183
How has the format of debates changed since 1988?
Mixing the traditional question-answer style, standing at podium, to town hall style debates (candidates seated on a bar stool facing the audience) and roundtable conversations between the candidates.
184
When was the only time that a third party candidate featured in the debates?
1992 with Ross Perot
185
What is the only example of debates transforming an election?
Carter v Reagan in 1980 - Reagan's closing remarks seen as crucial to winning the election
186
What is the October Surprise?
A phenomenon several times over the last forty years when an event changes the direction of public opinion.
187
What happened in 1972?
Henry Kissinger declared just 12 days before the election that "peace is at hand in Vietnam" - detonated McGovern's anti-war platforms.
188
What happened in 2016?
FBI Director Comey declared he was opening an investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of private email during her time at the State Department - something which fed the Crooked Hilary attack line of Trump.
189
What proved controversial in 2020?
Early Voting - Trump's unfounded allegations about fraud surrounding mail-in votes
190
What was the turnout in 1960?
67%
191
What was the turnout in 1980?
54.7%
192
What was turnout in 1996?
51.6%
193
What year had the highest turnout for more than a hundred years?
2020
194
Examples of swings states?
Ohio, Florida and Virginia
195
What has Ohio been seen as?
Bellwether state - backed every election since 1964
196
How many incumbents have lost?
4 since 1933
197
What is the main reason for people losing?
Poor economy
198
How many times has the loser won?
5 times - Adams 1824, 1878 Hayes, 1888 Harrison, 2000 Bush and 2016 Trump
199
How many EC votes are there?
538
200
Which state has the most?
California with 55
201
What do most states adopt?
A majoritarian winner takes all system - FPTP
202
Which states award votes by district?
Maine and Nebraska
203
What do electors do after votes have been counted?
Meet in the capital of each state and send their results to the VP.
204
Who counts the EC votes?
VP
205
What happened in 2001?
Al Gore hd to announce his own defeat to Congress
206
What happens in the case of a tie?
President would be elected by the house of Representatives, with each state having one vote - a simple majority of 26 out of 50 would suffice - VP by Senate
207
How many times has the electoral college failed to elect a winner?
1800 Jefferson and 1824 Adams
208
Who is the only US president to have been elected without winning both the EC and the popular vote
John Quincy Adams
209
Why is the EC a thing?
Avoidance of tyranny of the majority
210
What is another advantage of the EC?
The winner could claim mandate from both the states through the electoral college and from the people via the popular vote.
211
What is a critique of the EC?
Small states now have a disproportionate influence, an inversion of the original intention.
212
How many voters in California give one vote?
713,000
213
How many voters in Wyoming give one vote?
195,000
214
How many EC votes did Perot get in 1992?
None with 18.9% of the vote
215
How many elections have rogue electors been a problem
7/14 since 1968
216
How many states have laws prohibiting rogue electors?
33
217
How many faithless electors were there in 2016?
7
218
Example of Faithless elector?
Faith Spotted Eagle - Native American activist
219
What was the margin in Pen State in 2020?
67,000
220
What was the margin in Georgia in 2020?
25,000
221
How many states did George Wallace win in 1968?
5
222
What was GWB's approval rating following 9/11?
90%
223
How much of the campaign is focussed on 6 states?
80%
224
What is split ticket voting?
Voting for candidates from different parties in different election types
225
When was the first time when every Senate race was in line with the presidential result?
2016
226
What happened in 2020?
Republican Susan Collins held Senate while Maine voted for Biden
227
What happened in 1982 mid-terms?
Democrats won 17 of the 28 Senate contests in Reagan won states two years earlier.
228
How many districts split their votes in 2020?
Just 16 - record low of under 4%
229
How many House districts voted for the presidential candidate from a different party in 2016?
35
230
Example of a quirk in 2016?
Democrat Collin Peterson re-elected in a district where Trump was supported by 30%
231
How many reps and senators have lost their party's nomination in challenges between 1994 and 2010
30 reps and 6 senators
232
House of Representatives results in 2012?
40 retired, 13 defeated in primaries, 27 defeated in General Election and a total of 350 were re-elected - 90%
233
Senate results in 2012?
10 retired, 1 defeated in a primary challenge, 1 defeated in GE - total re-elected 21 - 91% - lost because of reapportionment and redistricting
234
How many elected positions are there?
Around half a million
235
What is the most famous state referendum?
Colorado - legalise marijauna
236
What proposition banned gay marriage in California in 2003?
Proposition 8
237
What does the US have?
Ballot Initiatives
238
What are ballot initatives?
Bottom up
239
What are referendums?
Top down
240
What is a recall election?
Write in recalls in California - how Arnold Schwarzenegger became Governor. Ballot initiative for a balanced budget - democrat governor failed to do this and keep services as good.
241
What happened in 2012?
Teachers union recalled Scott Walker - he won convincingly
242
What are ballot initiatives?
Ppropositions: laws or measures proposed by voters, and if enough signatures are obtained, they're placed on a ballo
243
Example of ballot intiatives?
Marijuana, same sex marriage, Medicaid and voting rights to ex-felons. 2016: compulsory wearing of condoms in adult movies featured on California's ballot
244
What happened in 2018?
78% of Alabaman voters supported an amendment to the state constitution to allow the 10 commandments in courthouses. Half of states allows grows who collect enough signatures to demand a law to be vetoed.
245
What does the number of signatures needed depend on?
States law
246
How many signatures are needed in California?
8% for constitutional amendments or 5% for a statute of the number of people who voted for the government.
247
What are referendums on?
Bills already passed by state legislature
248
What is a legislative referendum?
State legislature puts bill up for a vote - 23 for statutes, 49 states for amendments.
249
How many voters need to call for a recall in California?
12%
250
What happened in Arkansas in 2014?
Opposition to raising minimum wage - voters vote for an initiative to rase the minimum wage - $6.25 to $8.50 an hour - more convincing that the win from the two officials
251
What happened in Arizona in 2014?
Arizona Terminal Patients Right to Try - statute to allow terminally ill people to access medical treatments that have completed early clinical trials but not yet approved by the FDA - 78% agreed - strong mandate.
252
What can initiatives lead to?
Tyranny of the minority
253
What happened in 2015 in Texas?
Houston Equal Rights Ordinance 2015 - 50,000 voter triggered a referendum on the HERO - city law to ban discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity. Law defeat 61% to 39% - small number of trans voters easily opposed by the majority.
254
What happened in 2016 in California?
365,880 signatures were needed for an initiative in California in 2016 - hard for a Grassroots group - need lots of volunteers whereas a wealthy group can hire private companies to collect the signatures.
255
What was the Washington initiative 522 in 2013?
Asked if foods should be required to have labels that show if they contain genetically modified ingredients
256
What did polls suggest about initiative 522?
Yes had a lead of 62%
257
Why did the yes vote lose?
Yes supported by smaller farming groups - $8 million raised. No campaign supported by big business raised $22 million.
