Electoral process and democracy Flashcards
1
Q
main elections in the USA
A
presidential elections = indirectly select the occupant of the White House for the next 4 years
congressional elections = directly elect members of both chambers
primaries/caucuses = select candidates for each party for presidential elections, congressional and state elections
2
Q
direct democracy
A
various types including ballot initiatives, referendums and recall elections
3
Q
timings of elections
A
presidential elections = every 4 years in November and formal inauguration in January
congressional elections = every two years where whole of house and 1/3 of senate is up for elections
- timings for all other elections is decided by individual states and often occur once or twice a year (eg. Wisconsin at the height of COVID went to the polls)
4
Q
gerrymandering definition
A
deliberate manipulation of electoral districts for party advantage at elections (only applies to house districts)
- recently North Carolina and Maryland have been subject to significant partisan gerrymanders
- usually occurs after 10 yearly national consensus where districts are reapportioned due to population changes
5
Q
role of states
A
- beyond federal rules surrounding disability access, race and gender voting, there is plenty scope for state variations
- possibility of political ingenuity such as gerrymandering
- leeway on things such as photo ID laws and how party elections are organised, voter registration systems, ballot access laws
- parties also have input (eg. determining the procedure for awarding delegates to the national nominating conventions
6
Q
national nominating conventions
A
occasion when the successful candidate is formally endorsed as their party’s candidate for the forthcoming presidential election
7
Q
the electoral system
A
- nearly all US elections take majoritarian approach
- there are some variations (eg. Georgia’s election law requires a top-two election for its senate seat, California with non-partisan blanket primary law, Maine has ranked-choice voting system
8
Q
presidential election system
A
- indirect method of election
- each state receives an allocation of Electoral College votes equivalent to the size of their congressional delegation
- california has largest number (55), DC has 3
9
Q
US electoral system strengths
A
- elections offer opportunities to increase political participation
- majoritarian system ensures clear results and single party control
- primaries and caucuses enable ordinary voters to play key role in selecting candidates for political parties
10
Q
US electoral systems weakeness
A
- tends to favour two party dominant system with little scope for third parties
- two parties often control one chamber each making deadlock more common
- electoral distortion via the Electoral College which exaggerates the power of smaller states
11
Q
significant characteristics of elections campaigns
A
- regularity and ‘constant’ campaigning
- more emphasis on getting out the vote than changing voters minds
- huge expense
- emphasis on individual candidates not whole parties
12
Q
frequency of election campaigns
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- campaigning begins straight after midterms when ‘invisible primaries’ start
- eg, Trump had played up to the USAs economic performance during his unsuccessful 2020 election bid
13
Q
individuality in election campaigns
A
- if you want to run, you create a campaign team and get on the ballot by securing nomination signatures and raise campaign funds for things such as ads (all candidates referred to as self-starters)
- Trump’s 2016 victory showed that with enough public profile, funds and campaigning skill you can become president
14
Q
Trump’s successful individuality and campaigning
A
- sizeable minority of americans put their trust in him not as a republican but as an individual
- personal slogans such as Make America Great Again
- sold his self proclaimed ability as a great business person and dealmaker
15
Q
getting the right people to vote
A
- most candidates have a strong appeal to certain segments of the electorate
- eg, in 2004, Republicans ran a national campaign promoting state ballot measures banning same-sex marriage to incentivise white conservative evangelicals
- many individual campaigns aim to discourage or suppress certain groups of voters (eg. few republicans want african americans to vote)
16
Q
the swing movement
A
- most campaigning in US national elections takes place in relatively small states
- for presidentials, more money is spent on swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania) instead of safe states (California, Texas)
- in primary campaigns, emphasis is on states that come first in the primary and caucus diary (eg, Iowa)
17
Q
caucuses definiton
A
informal meetings of party supporters at a local level to decide the awarding of delegates
- there are a series of tiered meetings at a state level culminating in a convention that chooses the delegates for the national nominating convention
18
Q
cost of campaigning and elections
A
- total price tag for 2020 elections was $14 billion of which $7 billion was spent on races for Senate and House
- Bernie Saunders pulled in $46 million in donations in February 2020 alone
- money doesn’t guarantee election outcome (Clinton significantly outspent Trump and lost)
- reasons for high spending is down to the vast size of the USA and the absence of effective laws to limit and regulate such spending
19
Q
midterm blues without limits
A
- midterms are an important indicator of public confidence in the president’s performance
- most presidents see their party lose grounds in the midterms (Bush after 9/11 is the exception)
- nearly all presidents make promises they cant keep
- midterms often result in the presidents party losing control in Congress making it much harder to pass legislation (eg. Obama becoming a lame duck president)
20
Q
2018 midterms
A
- 34% saw their midterm vote as a vote against Trump
- Democrats captured 40 districts from the Republicans but lost ground in the Senate
- In California 7 districts went blue
- gaining control of the House benefitted the Democrats as they could launch impeachment proceedings soon after
- Senate elections confirmed the importance of personality and incumbency
- 49% of those able to vote, did (the ‘Trump effect’ incentivised people to get out and vote)
21
Q
incumbency definition
A
- an incumbent is a politician already elected and standing for re-election
- they have key advantage over challenger candidates, including funding and name recognition
22
Q
purpose of primaries and caucuses
A
- to select delegates who are pledged to vote for a particular candidate at their national nominating convention
- primaries used to select candidates for state and congressional election
- presidents planning re-election bids rarely face primary opposition (eg. Trump 2020)
23
Q
A
24
Q
origins of primaries
A
- primary elections emerged from the progressive era at the turn of the 20th century
- represented desire to break away from candidates being selected behind closed doors of a meeting
- did not become popular until 1970s (before used as ‘beauty contest’)
25
popularity of caucuses
- only a shrinking minority (mainly rural and sparsely populated states) still use them
- 2020 only 3 states retained them for the democrat presidential candidate campaign
26
purpose of primaries and caucuses
- to select delegates who are pledged to vote for a specific candidate in their national nominating convention
- used to select party candidates for state and congressional elections
27
primary and caucus turnout
- often low
- consists of party's core supporters
-candidates frequently veer to the left or to the right to attract enough votes from their more ideologically hardened supporters
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animosity and negativity in primaries and caucuses
- candidates often accused of being out of touch, too moderate, not radical enough
- 2016 primaries Trump gave names to his opponents (eg. Cry Baby Rubio, Lyin Cruz)
29
primary and caucus differences between states
- Oregon and New York have closed primaries (have to be pre-registered to specific patry to vote)
- Georgia has open primaries (all registered can vote for any party)
30
frontloading
- a state moving their primary/caucus closer to the start in order to gain more influence over the final outcome
- 2020 california moved theirs from June to March
- only 4 states are allowed to select their candidates in February (Iowa etc)
31
super tuesday
- many states have contest together one day in March
-2020 3rd March 14 states held their democrat primaries which awarded over 1/3 of delegates
32
invisible primaries
- when potential candidates may announce their intention to run, set up committee/ campaign team
- raise their public profile, buy airtime, build chest of donations
- many candidates never make it to Iowa
33
2020 democrat elections
- started with 29 candidates
- 6 women 1 gay 2 billionaires
- contest came down to two ideals - the heart (a liberal populist) and the head (moderate mainstream candidate) of the democrat party
- Biden initially did poorly but gained traction after African American congressmen endorsement
- Biden won 10/14 Super Tuesday contests
- two frontrunners where white males
- the 'head' won (Biden over Saunders)
34
advantages of primary/caucus system
- boost opportunity for political participation as it allows ordinary voters to choose their party's candidate
- allow political outsider to run for office (eg. Trump a businessman)
- road test candidates qualities for the office (eg fundraising skills)
35
disadvantages of primary/caucus system
- increases focus on candidates as opposed to party or policies which exacerbates division within candidates (eg. with Bill and Bernie)
- primaries add to the overall cost and length of campaigns and increase 'voter fatigue'
- caucus meetings lack voter secrecy and involve a lengthy time commitment and are not suited to the modern age of politics
36
possibilities to replace current system
- a single national primary election on one day (would remove the federal aspect of the process and disadvantage small states and unknown candidates seeking to build up along the way
- rotating regional primaries where country is divided into 4 regions each taking turns on the same day (candidates with strong support in a particular region might gain initial advantage/disadvantage
- Delaware plan allowing smaller states to go first
37
national nominating conventions
- formal coronations of the successful candidates
- often take place in swing states
- held in July/August
- gives chance to unite a divided party as formal rivals line up to endorse eventual winner
- it gives momentum to candidates campaign via publicity to explain and outline policy themes
- marks the formal beginning of the presidential campaign
38
electoral college
- 538 people
- set down by the constitution reflecting founding fathers concern on the mass popular vote
39
number of ECV's
-number per state is equivalent to the overall size of the congressional delegation
- min. 3 (eg. Alaska, Wyoming)
40
EC: ways of awarding voters
- mainly on winner takes all basis
- Maine = winner of each district gets 1 ECV
- 2020 Joe Biden won 1 ECV
41
EC: who are the electors
- chosen among the local party faithful
- eg. Bill and Hillary Clinton were New York state electors
- you can choose to be a faithless elector although pledged to vote for their party's candidate (7 in 2016)
- faithless electors have never affected the outcome of an election (protest vote)
42
EC: popular vote
- sometimes the winner of the popular vote loses the EC
- this happened in 1888, 2000, 2016
- all three occasions, Republican candidates emerged victorious
43
EC: final results
- final results can hang on a few thousand votes
- eg. Biden won by clear margin down to some slender victories in some states (if Trump won more in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia he would've won)
44
EC: stalemate
- if no single candidate has outright majority
- last happened in 1824
- the House would have to choose the president and Senate the vice president
45
EC: debate and discussion
- arguments for its abolition or at least reform
- no consensus for alternatives
46
the EC should be abolished
- winner of the popular vote can fail to be elected as the president (eg. Al Gore in 2000 and Hilary in 2016
- exaggerates margins of victory (eg. Reagan won 59% of popular vote and 97% of ECV's)
- created by founding fathers in a very different political era (smaller and less diverse)
47
EC should not be abolished
- reflects federal nature of the USA ensuring candidates have to campaign in a range of states not just most populated
- no superior method has gained widespread bipartisan support
- faithless electors have never effected final election outcome
48
why has the EC never been abolished
- would require constitutional amendment (2/3 majority + ratification)
- smaller states would lose out and therefore would frequently vetoE
49
EC alternatives
- direct popular vote where all votes are collected and tallied up and winner is the one with the most votes
- ranked voting system
(campaigning would centre on large urban centres and undermine federal nature of USA)
- expand Maine system nationwide (could intensify gerrymandering)
- NPVIC ( electors pledge to vote for whichever candidate wins popular vote
50
incumbency
- being an existing elected representative up for re-election
- 2018, 90.5% of Congress incumbents were successful
- no guarantee of job security (2018 midterms 4 democrats lost re-election)
- Carter and Trump only genuine examples of non-incumbent presidents
51
advantages of incumbency
- higher level of name recognition
- boast of past achievements
('bringing home the bacon')
- boast experience and a commitment to public office
- established campaign organisation and donor base
52
issues: economy
- economy is the key issue in most campaigns for voters (Clinton won by attacking incumbent presidents for their economic records)
- low taxes, falling unemployment, optimism used to secure re-election
53
issues: crisis
- competence and surety to handle crisis at home and abroad
- George W Bush response to 9/11 lauded for bringing the USA together and his approval ratings soared to 90% helping his re-election bid in 2004
54
issues: 'October Surprise' news event
- timed before the polls open in early November
- can either boost or lower support
- 2016 a tape from 2005 emerged of Trump making vulgar comments about a woman and Hilary was found to be using a private email server while secretary of state
55
media: political ads
- portraying desired image and sometimes attacking the opponent
- 2012 Obama's campaign ad called 'Remember' promoting renewable energy and attacking his opponent for being in the pocket of big oil companies
56
media: televised debates
- long standing feature of presidential campaigns
- 1960 Nixon refused to be made up making him look weak and pale in comparison to healthy looking Kennedy
- 2016 debate broke viewing figures when 84 million tuned in
- most chaotic was Biden-Trump 2020 campaign (3rd most viewed)
57
media: social media
- most digital users tend to follow, like or retweet candidates they support
- allows candidates to air their views with no filter
58
media: mainstream
- growing partisanship
- eg. Fox (Republican) and MSNBC (Democrat)
-
59
individual qualities in candidates
- focus on personality at the expense of party
- most campaign ads barely mention party affiliation
- 'Hope and Change' and 'Make America Great Again' both personal not party slogans
- reflects role of primaries where candidates fund their own campaigns
- wins owe much to their own efforts and abilities
- social media overwhelmingly individuals not parties (seen by disparities in follower count)
60
voter profile
- gender, race, religion, education, geography, age as well as self-identification with ideologies are important to voter behaviour
61
money
- money cannot buy outcomes (Clinton out-spent Trump and lost but Biden out-spent Trump and won)
- without access to funding candidates have a slimmer chance at winning
62
America: the divided nation
- 'red America vs blue America'
-eg. COVID-19 Republicans less concerned about the virus saying it had been exaggerated
- some voters can cast negative votes (eg. white evangelicals didn't like thrice-married Trump but were united to stop Clinton from entering the White House)
63
race affecting voter behaviour
- black (87%), hispanic (65%), asian (61%) = democrat
- white (58%) = republican
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gender affecting voter behaviour
- women (57%)= democrat
- men (53%) = republican
65
religion affecting voter behaviour
- white christians (76%) = republican
- non religious (65%) = republican
66
wealth affecting voter behaviour
- $100,00+ (54%) = Trump
- $50,00 (55%) = Biden
67
age affecting voter behaviour
- under 30s (60%) = democrat
- 65s+ (52%) = republican
68
political philosophy affecting voter behavior
- conservatives (85%) = Trump
- liberals (89%) = Biden
69
sexual orientation affecting voter behaviour
- LGBTQIA+ (64%) = Biden
70
geography affecting voter behaviour
- towns/cities with large populations (60%) = Biden
- smaller rural areas (57%) = Trump
71
political realignment
occurs when a particular group changed or realigns with a fresh political party/candidate having a lasting impact and setting a pattern in voting behaviour
72
southern strategy
- realignment of the conservative white vote towards republicans
- associated with Goldwater and Nixon
- conservative white southerners felt betrayed by democrats support of civil rights measures
73
1932 election
- Roosevelt won landslide victory over incumbent president Hoover
- Roosevelts New Deal platform aimed to address the Great Depression through government intervention and social welfare programs
- traditional Republican voters supported Roosevelts Democratic platform
- signaled a transition towards Democratic dominance known as the New Deal coalition
- consisted of workers, minorities, farmers, southern democrats
74
2016 election
- Trumps victory highlighted the appeal of populist rhetoric and ant-establishment sentiment
- republicans saw rising support from working class and rural voters
- republicans shifted towards nationalism and democrats towards modern and progressive ideologies
- loyal democrat blue collar workers swung behind Trump
75
core voters
- bedrock of each party's support
- parties aim to fuse together complementary groups while appealing to more individually minded groups
- danger is that core voters would defect to abstention
76
republican core voting group
- white evangelical christians = pro-life, pro-Israel, traditional social values
- gun owners = defence of 2nd amendment
77
democrat core voting group
- blacks = support for civil rights, opposition to voter suppression tactics, tackling poverty
- public sector labour unions = increasing minimum wage, greater investment in public services, protection of workers rights
78
2020 elections and finance
- total campaign bill under $14 billion (higher than the GDP of some countries
- double the estimated amount of the 2016 campaign
- most expensive Senate race was South California ($227 million)
- Micheal Bloomberg spent $1 billion and won no states
79
Where does the money go?
- predominantly on people and publicity
- campaigns need to employ specialists, strategists, web designers, open staff offices across the nation
- national campaigns involves miles of travel, buying airtime for political ads, social media ads
- 2020 Biden and Trump combined spent $175 million on Facebook ads
80
Wealthy candidates may self-fund
- Trump pumped $66 million of his own money into the 2016 campaign
- advantage is freedom from influence of donors and government restrictions
- disadvantage is that in encourages the perception that US politics is only for the wealthy
- voters may shun a hugely wealthy candidate seeing them as arrogant
81
limits on donations from supporters
- hard money (money contributed directly to a specific candidate) is limited by BCRA
- no individual can donate more than $2,800 a year to a single candidate amd $35,000 to national party
82
Political Action Committees
- established in 1940s
- described as candidate supporter groups
- can raise and distribute up to $5,000
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Independent expenditure
- 'soft money'
- money spent indirectly to promote a candidate or attack opponent
- groups that raise or spend this money cannot formally coordinate with candidate own official campaign
- many major candidates have Super PAC's behind them (eg. Future Forward USA backed Joe Biden)
84
Federal government funding
- least significant source of funding
- introduced theory that if candidates knew government would match their own fundraising they would be less consumed by constant fundraising
- Obama rejected it by calculating that he could raise more by his own efforts
- John McCain last major candidate to use matched federal funding
85
does money make a difference
- high level of correlation between the biggest spenders and the eventual winner
- the highest spending candidate only won 4/10 most expensive senate elections compared incumbents 7/10
86
Maryland's 7th Congressional District 2020
- in 2020, the safely Democrat 7th district in Maryland saw Republican challenger Klacik greatly outspend candidate Mfume yet Mfume ($4.8 million vs $602,000) held the seat with ease securing 72% of the vote
87
should campaign finance be reformed
- 'constitution v corruption' debate
- opponents of regulation point to first amendment (freedom of political expression)
- supporters of regulation would say current approach promotes corruption (those who give expect something in return)
88
campaign finance pro regulation
- there are plenty instances of dark money and non disclosures, several funding platforms don't require the names of donors to be made public
- election expenditure has gotten out of control in recent years , 2020 saw more money spent than previous 2 elections combined
- the cost of elections means that only the personally wealthy or well connected can really afford to enter politics (eg. Trump)
89
campaign finance anti regulation
- 2016 saw slightly less spent than in 2008 and 2012, campaign finance inflation is not continual
- political donations are apart of the free market, causes and candidates who are most popular attract the most funding
- key part of the democratic process, allows supporters to show additional loyalty to their favourite candidates and causes
90
ballot initiatives
- laws or measures are proposed by voters, if enough signatures, are placed on ballot
- have been held on various topics (eg. marijuana, same sex marriage)
- most significant and widely used form of direct democracy
91
recall elections
- voters can force elected state officials (eg. mayor) to face re-election before their full term expires
- most high profile was 2012 Republican governor Scott Walker (enough signatures for a re-election but he survived)
- Aaron Persky successfully recalled in 2018 due to comments in support of someone guilty of sexual assault
92
referendums
- can occur when state legislatures pass a law but needs to submit directly to voters for approval
- 2018, Alabama where 78% voters supported an amendment to the state constitution allowing the display of the 10 commandments in state courthouses
93
direct democracy works well
- allows voters to have a direct say in framing laws, represents purer form of democracy
- allows variation in laws between different types of states that reflect their different political priorities and complexion
- adds an additional check and balance to state executives and legislatures between elections
94
direct democracy doesn't work well
- can lead to 'tyranny of the majority' (eg. requiring driving tests to only be in English)
- can lead to inconsistencies between states eg. with same sex marriage before Obergefell verdict
- often simply a political tactic used by 'sore losers' or those unhappy with specific polices, undermines representatives gov
95
split ticket voting definition
when a voter decides to vote for candidates from different parties in the same election (eg. in 2020 voting for Biden but voting for a republican in senate or house elections)
96
reasons for split ticket voting
- reflects preferences for personalities over parties in some cases
- US parties proving to be less 'broadchurch'
- sheer number of elected offices offers many opportunities to split ones ballot
97
consequences of split ticket voting
- can lead o divided government at either state or national level
- split senate delegations, where there is one senator from each party (eg. Ohio, Montana and West Virginia 2020-22)
- split ticket voting declined because the divide between parties has never been bigger
98
abstention definition
not turning out to vote
99
high abstention levels
- despite more opportunities for voters to participate and vote than many other western democracies, the USA has relatively low turnout rates
- 2016 55.7% of voting age pop turned out to vote
- under 30% turnout for the average primary (Democrats in 2020 New Hampshire 26% turnout)
100
reasons for high abstention levels
- some states have introduced tougher voter ID to discourage voter fraud (states such as Georgia actively remove voter roles, between 2012 and 2018 1.4 million votes cancelled)
- Americans have to proactively register to vote
- lack of viable choice in a two party system
-majoritarian electoral system discriminates against third parties
- many voters feel their vote changes nothing
- many states uncompetitive and victory always goes to the same party
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