Electoral process and democracy Flashcards

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1
Q

main elections in the USA

A

presidential elections = indirectly select the occupant of the White House for the next 4 years

congressional elections = directly elect members of both chambers

primaries/caucuses = select candidates for each party for presidential elections, congressional and state elections

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2
Q

direct democracy

A

various types including ballot initiatives, referendums and recall elections

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3
Q

timings of elections

A

presidential elections = every 4 years in November and formal inauguration in January

congressional elections = every two years where whole of house and 1/3 of senate is up for elections

  • timings for all other elections is decided by individual states and often occur once or twice a year (eg. Wisconsin at the height of COVID went to the polls)
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4
Q

gerrymandering definition

A

deliberate manipulation of electoral districts for party advantage at elections (only applies to house districts)
- recently North Carolina and Maryland have been subject to significant partisan gerrymanders
- usually occurs after 10 yearly national consensus where districts are reapportioned due to population changes

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5
Q

role of states

A
  • beyond federal rules surrounding disability access, race and gender voting, there is plenty scope for state variations
  • possibility of political ingenuity such as gerrymandering
  • leeway on things such as photo ID laws and how party elections are organised, voter registration systems, ballot access laws
  • parties also have input (eg. determining the procedure for awarding delegates to the national nominating conventions
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6
Q

national nominating conventions

A

occasion when the successful candidate is formally endorsed as their party’s candidate for the forthcoming presidential election

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7
Q

the electoral system

A
  • nearly all US elections take majoritarian approach
  • there are some variations (eg. Georgia’s election law requires a top-two election for its senate seat, California with non-partisan blanket primary law, Maine has ranked-choice voting system
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8
Q

presidential election system

A
  • indirect method of election
  • each state receives an allocation of Electoral College votes equivalent to the size of their congressional delegation
  • california has largest number (55), DC has 3
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9
Q

US electoral system strengths

A
  • elections offer opportunities to increase political participation
  • majoritarian system ensures clear results and single party control
  • primaries and caucuses enable ordinary voters to play key role in selecting candidates for political parties
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10
Q

US electoral systems weakeness

A
  • tends to favour two party dominant system with little scope for third parties
  • two parties often control one chamber each making deadlock more common
  • electoral distortion via the Electoral College which exaggerates the power of smaller states
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11
Q

significant characteristics of elections campaigns

A
  • regularity and ‘constant’ campaigning
  • more emphasis on getting out the vote than changing voters minds
  • huge expense
  • emphasis on individual candidates not whole parties
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12
Q

frequency of election campaigns

A
  • campaigning begins straight after midterms when ‘invisible primaries’ start
  • eg, Trump had played up to the USAs economic performance during his unsuccessful 2020 election bid
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13
Q

individuality in election campaigns

A
  • if you want to run, you create a campaign team and get on the ballot by securing nomination signatures and raise campaign funds for things such as ads (all candidates referred to as self-starters)
  • Trump’s 2016 victory showed that with enough public profile, funds and campaigning skill you can become president
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14
Q

Trump’s successful individuality and campaigning

A
  • sizeable minority of americans put their trust in him not as a republican but as an individual
  • personal slogans such as Make America Great Again
  • sold his self proclaimed ability as a great business person and dealmaker
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15
Q

getting the right people to vote

A
  • most candidates have a strong appeal to certain segments of the electorate
  • eg, in 2004, Republicans ran a national campaign promoting state ballot measures banning same-sex marriage to incentivise white conservative evangelicals
  • many individual campaigns aim to discourage or suppress certain groups of voters (eg. few republicans want african americans to vote)
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16
Q

the swing movement

A
  • most campaigning in US national elections takes place in relatively small states
  • for presidentials, more money is spent on swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania) instead of safe states (California, Texas)
  • in primary campaigns, emphasis is on states that come first in the primary and caucus diary (eg, Iowa)
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17
Q

caucuses definiton

A

informal meetings of party supporters at a local level to decide the awarding of delegates
- there are a series of tiered meetings at a state level culminating in a convention that chooses the delegates for the national nominating convention

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18
Q

cost of campaigning and elections

A
  • total price tag for 2020 elections was $14 billion of which $7 billion was spent on races for Senate and House
  • Bernie Saunders pulled in $46 million in donations in February 2020 alone
  • money doesn’t guarantee election outcome (Clinton significantly outspent Trump and lost)
  • reasons for high spending is down to the vast size of the USA and the absence of effective laws to limit and regulate such spending
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19
Q

midterm blues without limits

A
  • midterms are an important indicator of public confidence in the president’s performance
  • most presidents see their party lose grounds in the midterms (Bush after 9/11 is the exception)
  • nearly all presidents make promises they cant keep
  • midterms often result in the presidents party losing control in Congress making it much harder to pass legislation (eg. Obama becoming a lame duck president)
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20
Q

2018 midterms

A
  • 34% saw their midterm vote as a vote against Trump
  • Democrats captured 40 districts from the Republicans but lost ground in the Senate
  • In California 7 districts went blue
  • gaining control of the House benefitted the Democrats as they could launch impeachment proceedings soon after
  • Senate elections confirmed the importance of personality and incumbency
  • 49% of those able to vote, did (the ‘Trump effect’ incentivised people to get out and vote)
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21
Q

incumbency definition

A
  • an incumbent is a politician already elected and standing for re-election
  • they have key advantage over challenger candidates, including funding and name recognition
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22
Q

purpose of primaries and caucuses

A
  • to select delegates who are pledged to vote for a particular candidate at their national nominating convention
  • primaries used to select candidates for state and congressional election
  • presidents planning re-election bids rarely face primary opposition (eg. Trump 2020)
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23
Q
A
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24
Q

origins of primaries

A
  • primary elections emerged from the progressive era at the turn of the 20th century
  • represented desire to break away from candidates being selected behind closed doors of a meeting
  • did not become popular until 1970s (before used as ‘beauty contest’)
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25
Q

popularity of caucuses

A
  • only a shrinking minority (mainly rural and sparsely populated states) still use them
  • 2020 only 3 states retained them for the democrat presidential candidate campaign
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26
Q

purpose of primaries and caucuses

A
  • to select delegates who are pledged to vote for a specific candidate in their national nominating convention
  • used to select party candidates for state and congressional elections
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27
Q

primary and caucus turnout

A
  • often low
  • consists of party’s core supporters
    -candidates frequently veer to the left or to the right to attract enough votes from their more ideologically hardened supporters
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28
Q

animosity and negativity in primaries and caucuses

A
  • candidates often accused of being out of touch, too moderate, not radical enough
  • 2016 primaries Trump gave names to his opponents (eg. Cry Baby Rubio, Lyin Cruz)
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29
Q

primary and caucus differences between states

A
  • Oregon and New York have closed primaries (have to be pre-registered to specific patry to vote)
  • Georgia has open primaries (all registered can vote for any party)
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30
Q

frontloading

A
  • a state moving their primary/caucus closer to the start in order to gain more influence over the final outcome
  • 2020 california moved theirs from June to March
  • only 4 states are allowed to select their candidates in February (Iowa etc)
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31
Q

super tuesday

A
  • many states have contest together one day in March
    -2020 3rd March 14 states held their democrat primaries which awarded over 1/3 of delegates
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32
Q

invisible primaries

A
  • when potential candidates may announce their intention to run, set up committee/ campaign team
  • raise their public profile, buy airtime, build chest of donations
  • many candidates never make it to Iowa
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33
Q

2020 democrat elections

A
  • started with 29 candidates
  • 6 women 1 gay 2 billionaires
  • contest came down to two ideals - the heart (a liberal populist) and the head (moderate mainstream candidate) of the democrat party
  • Biden initially did poorly but gained traction after African American congressmen endorsement
  • Biden won 10/14 Super Tuesday contests
  • two frontrunners where white males
  • the ‘head’ won (Biden over Saunders)
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34
Q

advantages of primary/caucus system

A
  • boost opportunity for political participation as it allows ordinary voters to choose their party’s candidate
  • allow political outsider to run for office (eg. Trump a businessman)
  • road test candidates qualities for the office (eg fundraising skills)
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35
Q

disadvantages of primary/caucus system

A
  • increases focus on candidates as opposed to party or policies which exacerbates division within candidates (eg. with Bill and Bernie)
  • primaries add to the overall cost and length of campaigns and increase ‘voter fatigue’
  • caucus meetings lack voter secrecy and involve a lengthy time commitment and are not suited to the modern age of politics
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36
Q

possibilities to replace current system

A
  • a single national primary election on one day (would remove the federal aspect of the process and disadvantage small states and unknown candidates seeking to build up along the way
  • rotating regional primaries where country is divided into 4 regions each taking turns on the same day (candidates with strong support in a particular region might gain initial advantage/disadvantage
  • Delaware plan allowing smaller states to go first
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37
Q

national nominating conventions

A
  • formal coronations of the successful candidates
  • often take place in swing states
  • held in July/August
  • gives chance to unite a divided party as formal rivals line up to endorse eventual winner
  • it gives momentum to candidates campaign via publicity to explain and outline policy themes
  • marks the formal beginning of the presidential campaign
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38
Q

electoral college

A
  • 538 people
  • set down by the constitution reflecting founding fathers concern on the mass popular vote
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39
Q

number of ECV’s

A

-number per state is equivalent to the overall size of the congressional delegation
- min. 3 (eg. Alaska, Wyoming)

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40
Q

EC: ways of awarding voters

A
  • mainly on winner takes all basis
  • Maine = winner of each district gets 1 ECV
  • 2020 Joe Biden won 1 ECV
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41
Q

EC: who are the electors

A
  • chosen among the local party faithful
  • eg. Bill and Hillary Clinton were New York state electors
  • you can choose to be a faithless elector although pledged to vote for their party’s candidate (7 in 2016)
  • faithless electors have never affected the outcome of an election (protest vote)
42
Q

EC: popular vote

A
  • sometimes the winner of the popular vote loses the EC
  • this happened in 1888, 2000, 2016
  • all three occasions, Republican candidates emerged victorious
43
Q

EC: final results

A
  • final results can hang on a few thousand votes
  • eg. Biden won by clear margin down to some slender victories in some states (if Trump won more in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia he would’ve won)
44
Q

EC: stalemate

A
  • if no single candidate has outright majority
  • last happened in 1824
  • the House would have to choose the president and Senate the vice president
45
Q

EC: debate and discussion

A
  • arguments for its abolition or at least reform
  • no consensus for alternatives
46
Q

the EC should be abolished

A
  • winner of the popular vote can fail to be elected as the president (eg. Al Gore in 2000 and Hilary in 2016
  • exaggerates margins of victory (eg. Reagan won 59% of popular vote and 97% of ECV’s)
  • created by founding fathers in a very different political era (smaller and less diverse)
47
Q

EC should not be abolished

A
  • reflects federal nature of the USA ensuring candidates have to campaign in a range of states not just most populated
  • no superior method has gained widespread bipartisan support
  • faithless electors have never effected final election outcome
48
Q

why has the EC never been abolished

A
  • would require constitutional amendment (2/3 majority + ratification)
  • smaller states would lose out and therefore would frequently vetoE
49
Q

EC alternatives

A
  • direct popular vote where all votes are collected and tallied up and winner is the one with the most votes
  • ranked voting system
    (campaigning would centre on large urban centres and undermine federal nature of USA)
  • expand Maine system nationwide (could intensify gerrymandering)
  • NPVIC ( electors pledge to vote for whichever candidate wins popular vote
50
Q

incumbency

A
  • being an existing elected representative up for re-election
  • 2018, 90.5% of Congress incumbents were successful
  • no guarantee of job security (2018 midterms 4 democrats lost re-election)
  • Carter and Trump only genuine examples of non-incumbent presidents
51
Q

advantages of incumbency

A
  • higher level of name recognition
  • boast of past achievements
    (‘bringing home the bacon’)
  • boast experience and a commitment to public office
  • established campaign organisation and donor base
52
Q

issues: economy

A
  • economy is the key issue in most campaigns for voters (Clinton won by attacking incumbent presidents for their economic records)
  • low taxes, falling unemployment, optimism used to secure re-election
53
Q

issues: crisis

A
  • competence and surety to handle crisis at home and abroad
  • George W Bush response to 9/11 lauded for bringing the USA together and his approval ratings soared to 90% helping his re-election bid in 2004
54
Q

issues: ‘October Surprise’ news event

A
  • timed before the polls open in early November
  • can either boost or lower support
  • 2016 a tape from 2005 emerged of Trump making vulgar comments about a woman and Hilary was found to be using a private email server while secretary of state
55
Q

media: political ads

A
  • portraying desired image and sometimes attacking the opponent
  • 2012 Obama’s campaign ad called ‘Remember’ promoting renewable energy and attacking his opponent for being in the pocket of big oil companies
56
Q

media: televised debates

A
  • long standing feature of presidential campaigns
  • 1960 Nixon refused to be made up making him look weak and pale in comparison to healthy looking Kennedy
  • 2016 debate broke viewing figures when 84 million tuned in
  • most chaotic was Biden-Trump 2020 campaign (3rd most viewed)
57
Q

media: social media

A
  • most digital users tend to follow, like or retweet candidates they support
  • allows candidates to air their views with no filter
58
Q

media: mainstream

A
  • growing partisanship
  • ## eg. Fox (Republican) and MSNBC (Democrat)
59
Q

individual qualities in candidates

A
  • focus on personality at the expense of party
  • most campaign ads barely mention party affiliation
  • ‘Hope and Change’ and ‘Make America Great Again’ both personal not party slogans
  • reflects role of primaries where candidates fund their own campaigns
  • wins owe much to their own efforts and abilities
  • social media overwhelmingly individuals not parties (seen by disparities in follower count)
60
Q

voter profile

A
  • gender, race, religion, education, geography, age as well as self-identification with ideologies are important to voter behaviour
61
Q

money

A
  • money cannot buy outcomes (Clinton out-spent Trump and lost but Biden out-spent Trump and won)
  • without access to funding candidates have a slimmer chance at winning
62
Q

America: the divided nation

A
  • ‘red America vs blue America’
    -eg. COVID-19 Republicans less concerned about the virus saying it had been exaggerated
  • some voters can cast negative votes (eg. white evangelicals didn’t like thrice-married Trump but were united to stop Clinton from entering the White House)
63
Q

race affecting voter behaviour

A
  • black (87%), hispanic (65%), asian (61%) = democrat
  • white (58%) = republican
64
Q

gender affecting voter behaviour

A
  • women (57%)= democrat
  • men (53%) = republican
65
Q

religion affecting voter behaviour

A
  • white christians (76%) = republican
  • non religious (65%) = republican
66
Q

wealth affecting voter behaviour

A
  • $100,00+ (54%) = Trump
  • $50,00 (55%) = Biden
67
Q

age affecting voter behaviour

A
  • under 30s (60%) = democrat
  • 65s+ (52%) = republican
68
Q

political philosophy affecting voter behavior

A
  • conservatives (85%) = Trump
  • liberals (89%) = Biden
69
Q

sexual orientation affecting voter behaviour

A
  • LGBTQIA+ (64%) = Biden
70
Q

geography affecting voter behaviour

A
  • towns/cities with large populations (60%) = Biden
  • smaller rural areas (57%) = Trump
71
Q

political realignment

A

occurs when a particular group changed or realigns with a fresh political party/candidate having a lasting impact and setting a pattern in voting behaviour

72
Q

southern strategy

A
  • realignment of the conservative white vote towards republicans
  • associated with Goldwater and Nixon
  • conservative white southerners felt betrayed by democrats support of civil rights measures
73
Q

1932 election

A
  • Roosevelt won landslide victory over incumbent president Hoover
  • Roosevelts New Deal platform aimed to address the Great Depression through government intervention and social welfare programs
  • traditional Republican voters supported Roosevelts Democratic platform
  • signaled a transition towards Democratic dominance known as the New Deal coalition
  • consisted of workers, minorities, farmers, southern democrats
74
Q

2016 election

A
  • Trumps victory highlighted the appeal of populist rhetoric and ant-establishment sentiment
  • republicans saw rising support from working class and rural voters
  • republicans shifted towards nationalism and democrats towards modern and progressive ideologies
  • loyal democrat blue collar workers swung behind Trump
75
Q

core voters

A
  • bedrock of each party’s support
  • parties aim to fuse together complementary groups while appealing to more individually minded groups
  • danger is that core voters would defect to abstention
76
Q

republican core voting group

A
  • white evangelical christians = pro-life, pro-Israel, traditional social values
  • gun owners = defence of 2nd amendment
77
Q

democrat core voting group

A
  • blacks = support for civil rights, opposition to voter suppression tactics, tackling poverty
  • public sector labour unions = increasing minimum wage, greater investment in public services, protection of workers rights
78
Q

2020 elections and finance

A
  • total campaign bill under $14 billion (higher than the GDP of some countries
  • double the estimated amount of the 2016 campaign
  • most expensive Senate race was South California ($227 million)
  • Micheal Bloomberg spent $1 billion and won no states
79
Q

Where does the money go?

A
  • predominantly on people and publicity
  • campaigns need to employ specialists, strategists, web designers, open staff offices across the nation
  • national campaigns involves miles of travel, buying airtime for political ads, social media ads
  • 2020 Biden and Trump combined spent $175 million on Facebook ads
80
Q

Wealthy candidates may self-fund

A
  • Trump pumped $66 million of his own money into the 2016 campaign
  • advantage is freedom from influence of donors and government restrictions
  • disadvantage is that in encourages the perception that US politics is only for the wealthy
  • voters may shun a hugely wealthy candidate seeing them as arrogant
81
Q

limits on donations from supporters

A
  • hard money (money contributed directly to a specific candidate) is limited by BCRA
  • no individual can donate more than $2,800 a year to a single candidate amd $35,000 to national party
82
Q

Political Action Committees

A
  • established in 1940s
  • described as candidate supporter groups
  • can raise and distribute up to $5,000
83
Q

Independent expenditure

A
  • ‘soft money’
  • money spent indirectly to promote a candidate or attack opponent
  • groups that raise or spend this money cannot formally coordinate with candidate own official campaign
  • many major candidates have Super PAC’s behind them (eg. Future Forward USA backed Joe Biden)
84
Q

Federal government funding

A
  • least significant source of funding
  • introduced theory that if candidates knew government would match their own fundraising they would be less consumed by constant fundraising
  • Obama rejected it by calculating that he could raise more by his own efforts
  • John McCain last major candidate to use matched federal funding
85
Q

does money make a difference

A
  • high level of correlation between the biggest spenders and the eventual winner
  • the highest spending candidate only won 4/10 most expensive senate elections compared incumbents 7/10
86
Q

Maryland’s 7th Congressional District 2020

A
  • in 2020, the safely Democrat 7th district in Maryland saw Republican challenger Klacik greatly outspend candidate Mfume yet Mfume ($4.8 million vs $602,000) held the seat with ease securing 72% of the vote
87
Q

should campaign finance be reformed

A
  • ‘constitution v corruption’ debate
  • opponents of regulation point to first amendment (freedom of political expression)
  • supporters of regulation would say current approach promotes corruption (those who give expect something in return)
88
Q

campaign finance pro regulation

A
  • there are plenty instances of dark money and non disclosures, several funding platforms don’t require the names of donors to be made public
  • election expenditure has gotten out of control in recent years , 2020 saw more money spent than previous 2 elections combined
  • the cost of elections means that only the personally wealthy or well connected can really afford to enter politics (eg. Trump)
89
Q

campaign finance anti regulation

A
  • 2016 saw slightly less spent than in 2008 and 2012, campaign finance inflation is not continual
  • political donations are apart of the free market, causes and candidates who are most popular attract the most funding
  • key part of the democratic process, allows supporters to show additional loyalty to their favourite candidates and causes
90
Q

ballot initiatives

A
  • laws or measures are proposed by voters, if enough signatures, are placed on ballot
  • have been held on various topics (eg. marijuana, same sex marriage)
  • most significant and widely used form of direct democracy
91
Q

recall elections

A
  • voters can force elected state officials (eg. mayor) to face re-election before their full term expires
  • most high profile was 2012 Republican governor Scott Walker (enough signatures for a re-election but he survived)
  • Aaron Persky successfully recalled in 2018 due to comments in support of someone guilty of sexual assault
92
Q

referendums

A
  • can occur when state legislatures pass a law but needs to submit directly to voters for approval
  • 2018, Alabama where 78% voters supported an amendment to the state constitution allowing the display of the 10 commandments in state courthouses
93
Q

direct democracy works well

A
  • allows voters to have a direct say in framing laws, represents purer form of democracy
  • allows variation in laws between different types of states that reflect their different political priorities and complexion
  • adds an additional check and balance to state executives and legislatures between elections
94
Q

direct democracy doesn’t work well

A
  • can lead to ‘tyranny of the majority’ (eg. requiring driving tests to only be in English)
  • can lead to inconsistencies between states eg. with same sex marriage before Obergefell verdict
  • often simply a political tactic used by ‘sore losers’ or those unhappy with specific polices, undermines representatives gov
95
Q

split ticket voting definition

A

when a voter decides to vote for candidates from different parties in the same election (eg. in 2020 voting for Biden but voting for a republican in senate or house elections)

96
Q

reasons for split ticket voting

A
  • reflects preferences for personalities over parties in some cases
  • US parties proving to be less ‘broadchurch’
  • sheer number of elected offices offers many opportunities to split ones ballot
97
Q

consequences of split ticket voting

A
  • can lead o divided government at either state or national level
  • split senate delegations, where there is one senator from each party (eg. Ohio, Montana and West Virginia 2020-22)
  • split ticket voting declined because the divide between parties has never been bigger
98
Q

abstention definition

A

not turning out to vote

99
Q

high abstention levels

A
  • despite more opportunities for voters to participate and vote than many other western democracies, the USA has relatively low turnout rates
  • 2016 55.7% of voting age pop turned out to vote
  • under 30% turnout for the average primary (Democrats in 2020 New Hampshire 26% turnout)
100
Q

reasons for high abstention levels

A
  • some states have introduced tougher voter ID to discourage voter fraud (states such as Georgia actively remove voter roles, between 2012 and 2018 1.4 million votes cancelled)
  • Americans have to proactively register to vote
  • lack of viable choice in a two party system
    -majoritarian electoral system discriminates against third parties
  • many voters feel their vote changes nothing
  • many states uncompetitive and victory always goes to the same party
101
Q
A