Electoral process and democracy Flashcards
main elections in the USA
presidential elections = indirectly select the occupant of the White House for the next 4 years
congressional elections = directly elect members of both chambers
primaries/caucuses = select candidates for each party for presidential elections, congressional and state elections
direct democracy
various types including ballot initiatives, referendums and recall elections
timings of elections
presidential elections = every 4 years in November and formal inauguration in January
congressional elections = every two years where whole of house and 1/3 of senate is up for elections
- timings for all other elections is decided by individual states and often occur once or twice a year (eg. Wisconsin at the height of COVID went to the polls)
gerrymandering definition
deliberate manipulation of electoral districts for party advantage at elections (only applies to house districts)
- recently North Carolina and Maryland have been subject to significant partisan gerrymanders
- usually occurs after 10 yearly national consensus where districts are reapportioned due to population changes
role of states
- beyond federal rules surrounding disability access, race and gender voting, there is plenty scope for state variations
- possibility of political ingenuity such as gerrymandering
- leeway on things such as photo ID laws and how party elections are organised, voter registration systems, ballot access laws
- parties also have input (eg. determining the procedure for awarding delegates to the national nominating conventions
national nominating conventions
occasion when the successful candidate is formally endorsed as their party’s candidate for the forthcoming presidential election
the electoral system
- nearly all US elections take majoritarian approach
- there are some variations (eg. Georgia’s election law requires a top-two election for its senate seat, California with non-partisan blanket primary law, Maine has ranked-choice voting system
presidential election system
- indirect method of election
- each state receives an allocation of Electoral College votes equivalent to the size of their congressional delegation
- california has largest number (55), DC has 3
US electoral system strengths
- elections offer opportunities to increase political participation
- majoritarian system ensures clear results and single party control
- primaries and caucuses enable ordinary voters to play key role in selecting candidates for political parties
US electoral systems weakeness
- tends to favour two party dominant system with little scope for third parties
- two parties often control one chamber each making deadlock more common
- electoral distortion via the Electoral College which exaggerates the power of smaller states
significant characteristics of elections campaigns
- regularity and ‘constant’ campaigning
- more emphasis on getting out the vote than changing voters minds
- huge expense
- emphasis on individual candidates not whole parties
frequency of election campaigns
- campaigning begins straight after midterms when ‘invisible primaries’ start
- eg, Trump had played up to the USAs economic performance during his unsuccessful 2020 election bid
individuality in election campaigns
- if you want to run, you create a campaign team and get on the ballot by securing nomination signatures and raise campaign funds for things such as ads (all candidates referred to as self-starters)
- Trump’s 2016 victory showed that with enough public profile, funds and campaigning skill you can become president
Trump’s successful individuality and campaigning
- sizeable minority of americans put their trust in him not as a republican but as an individual
- personal slogans such as Make America Great Again
- sold his self proclaimed ability as a great business person and dealmaker
getting the right people to vote
- most candidates have a strong appeal to certain segments of the electorate
- eg, in 2004, Republicans ran a national campaign promoting state ballot measures banning same-sex marriage to incentivise white conservative evangelicals
- many individual campaigns aim to discourage or suppress certain groups of voters (eg. few republicans want african americans to vote)
the swing movement
- most campaigning in US national elections takes place in relatively small states
- for presidentials, more money is spent on swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania) instead of safe states (California, Texas)
- in primary campaigns, emphasis is on states that come first in the primary and caucus diary (eg, Iowa)
caucuses definiton
informal meetings of party supporters at a local level to decide the awarding of delegates
- there are a series of tiered meetings at a state level culminating in a convention that chooses the delegates for the national nominating convention
cost of campaigning and elections
- total price tag for 2020 elections was $14 billion of which $7 billion was spent on races for Senate and House
- Bernie Saunders pulled in $46 million in donations in February 2020 alone
- money doesn’t guarantee election outcome (Clinton significantly outspent Trump and lost)
- reasons for high spending is down to the vast size of the USA and the absence of effective laws to limit and regulate such spending
midterm blues without limits
- midterms are an important indicator of public confidence in the president’s performance
- most presidents see their party lose grounds in the midterms (Bush after 9/11 is the exception)
- nearly all presidents make promises they cant keep
- midterms often result in the presidents party losing control in Congress making it much harder to pass legislation (eg. Obama becoming a lame duck president)
2018 midterms
- 34% saw their midterm vote as a vote against Trump
- Democrats captured 40 districts from the Republicans but lost ground in the Senate
- In California 7 districts went blue
- gaining control of the House benefitted the Democrats as they could launch impeachment proceedings soon after
- Senate elections confirmed the importance of personality and incumbency
- 49% of those able to vote, did (the ‘Trump effect’ incentivised people to get out and vote)
incumbency definition
- an incumbent is a politician already elected and standing for re-election
- they have key advantage over challenger candidates, including funding and name recognition
purpose of primaries and caucuses
- to select delegates who are pledged to vote for a particular candidate at their national nominating convention
- primaries used to select candidates for state and congressional election
- presidents planning re-election bids rarely face primary opposition (eg. Trump 2020)
origins of primaries
- primary elections emerged from the progressive era at the turn of the 20th century
- represented desire to break away from candidates being selected behind closed doors of a meeting
- did not become popular until 1970s (before used as ‘beauty contest’)
popularity of caucuses
- only a shrinking minority (mainly rural and sparsely populated states) still use them
- 2020 only 3 states retained them for the democrat presidential candidate campaign
purpose of primaries and caucuses
- to select delegates who are pledged to vote for a specific candidate in their national nominating convention
- used to select party candidates for state and congressional elections
primary and caucus turnout
- often low
- consists of party’s core supporters
-candidates frequently veer to the left or to the right to attract enough votes from their more ideologically hardened supporters
animosity and negativity in primaries and caucuses
- candidates often accused of being out of touch, too moderate, not radical enough
- 2016 primaries Trump gave names to his opponents (eg. Cry Baby Rubio, Lyin Cruz)
primary and caucus differences between states
- Oregon and New York have closed primaries (have to be pre-registered to specific patry to vote)
- Georgia has open primaries (all registered can vote for any party)
frontloading
- a state moving their primary/caucus closer to the start in order to gain more influence over the final outcome
- 2020 california moved theirs from June to March
- only 4 states are allowed to select their candidates in February (Iowa etc)
super tuesday
- many states have contest together one day in March
-2020 3rd March 14 states held their democrat primaries which awarded over 1/3 of delegates
invisible primaries
- when potential candidates may announce their intention to run, set up committee/ campaign team
- raise their public profile, buy airtime, build chest of donations
- many candidates never make it to Iowa
2020 democrat elections
- started with 29 candidates
- 6 women 1 gay 2 billionaires
- contest came down to two ideals - the heart (a liberal populist) and the head (moderate mainstream candidate) of the democrat party
- Biden initially did poorly but gained traction after African American congressmen endorsement
- Biden won 10/14 Super Tuesday contests
- two frontrunners where white males
- the ‘head’ won (Biden over Saunders)
advantages of primary/caucus system
- boost opportunity for political participation as it allows ordinary voters to choose their party’s candidate
- allow political outsider to run for office (eg. Trump a businessman)
- road test candidates qualities for the office (eg fundraising skills)
disadvantages of primary/caucus system
- increases focus on candidates as opposed to party or policies which exacerbates division within candidates (eg. with Bill and Bernie)
- primaries add to the overall cost and length of campaigns and increase ‘voter fatigue’
- caucus meetings lack voter secrecy and involve a lengthy time commitment and are not suited to the modern age of politics
possibilities to replace current system
- a single national primary election on one day (would remove the federal aspect of the process and disadvantage small states and unknown candidates seeking to build up along the way
- rotating regional primaries where country is divided into 4 regions each taking turns on the same day (candidates with strong support in a particular region might gain initial advantage/disadvantage
- Delaware plan allowing smaller states to go first
national nominating conventions
- formal coronations of the successful candidates
- often take place in swing states
- held in July/August
- gives chance to unite a divided party as formal rivals line up to endorse eventual winner
- it gives momentum to candidates campaign via publicity to explain and outline policy themes
- marks the formal beginning of the presidential campaign
electoral college
- 538 people
- set down by the constitution reflecting founding fathers concern on the mass popular vote
number of ECV’s
-number per state is equivalent to the overall size of the congressional delegation
- min. 3 (eg. Alaska, Wyoming)
EC: ways of awarding voters
- mainly on winner takes all basis
- Maine = winner of each district gets 1 ECV
- 2020 Joe Biden won 1 ECV