Elections and Referendums Flashcards
First past the post- Advantages and Disadvantages of votes cast
Advantages:
Simple- voters put a cross next to their preferred candidate.
Easy to understand
clear to seee who has won and why they have won at both a local and national level
Disadvantages:
MP’s can be elected with a low percentage of votes from their constituency.
Millions of wasted votes nationally
encourages tactical voting.
Choice of candidate is made by the party not the voter. if a voter wishes to vote conservative they cannot chose between a selection of candidates.
Turnout tends to be lower in FPTP countries.
First past the post- Constituencies- Advantages and Disadvantages
Advantages-
Each constituency is represented by one MP who constituent know who to contact.
FPTP allows for a large majority to be formed from a lesser % vote share.
Disadvantages-
A majority of voters in a constituency may have voted against their representative.
Voters in safe seats feel that their voter will be wasted.
Election campaigns tend to ignore safe seats and focus on marginal seats. (Seats won by 5% or less).
there were only 67 marginal seats in 2019. Differently sized constituencies mean votes have different weight. This is less important in the 2024 election because the boundaries were redrawn with the creation of seats like Waveney valley.
First past the post- parties- advantages and disadvantages
Advantages-
Produces a two party system.
Excludes extremist parties like the communist party and Reform.
Disadvantages-
It favours parties with concentrated geographical support.
Minor parties win far fewer seats in HOC than they would if they were allocated proportionally to votes.
Minor parties struggled to convince supporters to vote for them as they are seen as a wasted vote party.
This also excludes smaller parties.
In 2015 SNP won 56/59 in 2015. Only 1 tory in Scotland with a tory govt.
First past the post- Governments- advantages and disadvantages
Advantages-
FPTP tends to result in majority single party governments which find it harder to pass legislation.
Majority governments have clear mandates. Governments are easily held accountable. Coalitions and minority governments are rare and seen as a good thing.
Governments form really quickly (even when not the liberal’s coalition only took days)
Disadvantages-
FPTP exaggerates the mandate that governments actually have. In ‘97 Labour won 2.5x seats than conservatives but only 1.4x votes. This is the Winners Bonus. This does not also guarantee strong majority governments. From 2010 to 2015 the UK had a coalition and then from 17-19 a minority govt.
First past the post- MP constituency link
- MP’s can represent their constituency by voicing their specific interests in parliament
- linking with the constituency to parliament
- MP’s can be well positioned to understand their views of the constituents
- MP’s do feel pressured to vote alongside the whips
- parliement does genuinely represent the entire country because each bit of it is represented by its own rep.
Limited voter choice as a negative of FPTP
Voters have less choice on the ballot paper
safe seats- voters doesn’t have opportunity to influence the candidate
safe seats are also unlikely to change but have but can in elections with big swings like 2024- south west Norfolk
Majoritarian and proportional election systems.
Majoritarian systems require a candidate to gain 50% plus one vote to win- an absolute majority. They are not proportional so likely to result in majority governments.
Proportional systems allocate seats in proportion to the number of votes received by each party. They are likely to result in coalition governments.
Features of Supplementary Vote
Supplementary vote (SV), Electoral system for the PCC and mayoral elections. A candidate needs to gain an absolute majority. Single member constituencies.
Voters choose a first and second candidate.
If no one wins first preference then the second preference are added to the first preference from all candidates apart from the top two.
Produces a clear winner
Advantages of Supplementary Vote
Advantages:
Increased Legitimacy- representatives need to command broader support than under FPTP. Voters can vote for minor parties with their first preference and use their second for a realistic candidate.
Disadvantages of Supplementary Vote
Disadvantages:
Not Proportional
Difficult for minor parties to win.
Votes are still wasted when winning candidate receives votes past 50% mark
Despite being a majoritarian system it is possible for the winner to be elected without a majority.
can result in the least worst candidate.
Features, of Single Transferable Vote.
Used in Scottish local elections.
Seats are allocated proportionally to the number of votes received by each party.
Large multimember constituencies.
Voters write candidates in order of their preference.
Candidates need quota of votes to win seat.
Once a seat has been won the next seat is allocated and so forth.
Advantages and disadvantages of STV
Advantages:
Increased legitimacy and representation.
Voters can have faith that the party that they vote for can win.
Disadvantages:
Coalition governments are highly likely and these are weak and unstable.
Weaker constituency link.
Complex counting systems.
Complex voting processes.
Complex counting systems.
Features, advantages and disadvantages of AMS (Additional member system).
Elections to the London Assembly
Features:
The greater number of seats are allocated using FTPT. A smaller proportion os seats are allocated using PR. The FPTP seats represent single member constituencies.
The regional list seats represent larger multimember seats. The proportion of each party’s share of the vote in calculated and compared against the proportion of votes it has won in the FPTP vote. IF It has a lower proportion of votes It has won in the FPTP vote. If it has a lower proportion of FPTP seats than it deserves it is allocated additional members seats from its top up share of seats.
Advantages:
More proportional than anything else.
Voters can confidently vote for minor parties and know that their vote counts.
Split ticket voting allows voters to choose a candidate but also a party.
Constituency seats retain the relationship between the MP and their constituency.
Disadvantages:
A hybrid system so not perfectly proportional
Two classes of representative are elected.
Voters cannot choose between individual candidates. Majority governments are less likely.
Relatively complicated voting system-the voter makes two choices and needs to understand two voting systems.
Age statistics for 2019
18-24- 56% Labour -21% Tory
25-29- 54% Labour- 23% Tory
30-39- 46% Labour- 30% Tory
40-49- 35% Labour- 41% Tory
50-59- 28% Labour- 49% Tory
60-69- 22% Labour- 57% Tory
70+- 14% Labour- 67% Tory
Age relevance in 2019
In 2017 and 2019, age was the most likely point of how people voted in the general election.
Young people were more likely to vote Labour than older people.
Class
Traditionally Class has been the biggest factor in influencing voting behaviour. since the 1980’s the process of class dealignment. In 2019 voters of all class were more likely to vote conservative than Labour. Skilled manual working class were the most likely of all to vote Labour. Education Level is also a significant Labour indicator with the most educated being more likely to vote Labour.
Gender
Men and Women have different priorities- some believe that women are more likely to support parties that favour strong public services particularly the NHS and Education.
Women and Men are equally likely to vote. Women were more likely to vote remain.
There was a small gender gap in 2019 but not significant enough to be analysed.
Ethnicity
BAME groups are significantly more likely to vote Labour with an estimated 64% likely to vote Labour
Geography
Different regions are more likely to vote Labour or conservatives.
Voter Choice- rational choice theory
assumes that voters weight up the options available to them and vote for the party will deliver the the result that will best result for them.
Voter Choice- Issue Voting
Voters prioritise one issue above all others and vote purely based on that issues.
Valance issues
Valance issues are those that are universally accepted to be important. Voters choose a party based on hoe well they think the party will preform on those issues. The economy is probably the most important valance issue.
1979 General Election.
- Political context
- Result
-Patterns of voting behaviour
- Influence of the media
- Impact of party policies and manifesto
followed the 1978-9 winter of discontent strilkes. Incumbent James Callahan faced new conservative leader Margret Thatcher.
Conservative Win, 43 seat majority.
Middle class more likely to vote conservative. working class more likely to vote Labour. All ages more likely to vote conservative apart from 18-24 year olds. No records of BAME voters.
More media focus on leader than previously. Thatcher raised her own profile. Sun endorsed Conservative. The Tories focused on the economy. Thatcher put forward the Right To Buy Scheme.
1979 General election
- Impacts of campaign and leadership
- Impact of election on policy and policy making
Had a successful “Labour isn’t working” approach.
British voters had no model for what a female PM would look and sound like.
Thatchers majority allowed her to begin transforming the economy of the UK. After winning a Landslide in ‘83 Thatcher proceeded to bring forward more radical reforms.
1997 General Election
- Context
- result
-Patterns of voting behaviour
- Influence of the Media
- Impact of party policy and manifesto
- Impact of campaigns and leadership
- Impact of election on policy and policy making
The conservatives had been in power since 1979 and John Majors Government has been tainted by sleaze and scandal. Since Tony Blair took over the party in 1994 the party has repositioned itself and become more centrist.
179 seat majority.
Labours best ever result and best result of any party ever.
bar 65+ all ages were more likely to vote Labour.
Women and Men equally support Labour
70% of BAME voters voted Labour.
New Labour had a proactive approach in relation to the media.
Labour made 5 pledges which were clear and supported whereas the Conservatives failed to win support.
Negative campaigning from the conservatives and Positive campaigning from Labour with campaigns focused on Party Leaders.
2019 General election
Since early in 2019 Boris was PM and called a snap election. The Conservatives were a minority government and deeply divided over Brexit and policyes to deliver it.
To call an early election Boris passed the ‘Early parliamentary election act’. Many people expected an equally divided election.
The Conservatives held an eighty seat majority. Labour had its best result since 1935. Third parties also did very well.
Older people and all social classes were more likely to vote Labour. Young people and university educated were more likely to vote Labour. Tories broke through the Red Wall. Labour outspent the conservatives. Johnson was criticised for avoiding potentially damaging press engagements. The election was foucssed on Brexit. Labour’s position was more complicated. The Lib Dems promised to rejoin the EU and Joe Swinson lost her seat. Johnsons highly effective election based around ‘Get Brexit Done’ was highly effective. Corbin seemed weak which prompted people to not support the Tories. After the election Johnson began a levelling up agenda and ‘Got Brexit Done’ Johnsons heavy majority helped him ignore calls for a coalition.
Example for a landslide victory for one party
1997 Labour- biggest Labour landslide since WW2.
A discrepancy between the number of seats gained and votes gained.
2015: UKIP won 3.9 million votes and one seat and the greens won 1.1 million votes and one seat.
The SNP Won 1.5 Million Votes and won 56MP’s.
