Elections Flashcards
Extra-constitutional requirements
Political experience
– 1968-2016= of 19 nominees, 10- Senate, 6- state governors. 6 served as Vice-President.
– Exception= Trump
Majority party endorsement
- Must be Dem/Rep, Independents don’t lead in White House
– George Wallace (indep.) (1968)
– John Anderson (1980)
– Pat Buchanan (2000)
– Gary Johnson (2016)
Personal characteristics
- Lots of time pale + male
– Hillary Clinton became 1st woman pres. candidate
- Advantage to be married = only bachelor = James Buchanan (1856)
– 3/8 last pres. candidates have been divorced + remarried (Ronald Reagan, John McCain + Donald Trump)
Large sums of money
- Very small minority can afford to fund their campaign:
– exceptions: Ross Perot (1992), Steve Forbes (1996 + 2000)
– Hillary Clinton raised $500m
Organisation, good policies, looking good on TV - Senator Phil Gramm declared “I’m too ugly to be President”
Seven stages of Presidential Elections (overview)
1) Invisible Primary
2) Primaries + caucuses (not cactus)
3) Choosing Vice Presidential candidate(s)
4) National Party Conventions
5) General election campaign
6) Election day!!
7) Electoral college voting (oooo….)
Invisible primary (1)
Period of time from the candidate declaring they’re entering the race to the first primaries
Determines who will be the Presidential candidates
Chance for them to get name recognition, money and organisation
[I] Candidate’s announcements
- Formally announce they’re entering the race before the primaries + caucuses
– 2016: Ted Cruz announced 11 months before
– 1972: George McGovern entered race 414 days before 1st primary
– Before reforms, 1960: John Kennedy announced 66 before, Nixon 40 days before
[II] Televised party debates
– 2015-2016: debates between would-be Rep candidates. So many, 2 debates: afternoon debate ‘kid’s table’, other with leading candidates. Only Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marci Rubio + Donald Trump invited to all 7 debates
– 10th debate (2011)- Rick Perry forgot the names of the govt. departments he wished to shut down, saying oops! on TV (ended his bid in 2012 after finishing New Hampshire primary with less than 1% of vote)
[III] Fundraising
- 2016: Ben Carson= $57.9m, Jeb Bush= $33.5m but didn’t win a single primary (no indication of success)
– Trump raised $25.5m, but donated a further $17.8m of his own money
– Hillary = $130m to Sander’s $96m
[IV] Front-runners
- Typically those who end the invisible primaries as front-runners tend to win the nomination - 2016: Hillary had 14 point lead over Sanders, Trump had 16 point lead over Ted Cruz
– But 2004= Rudy Giuliani held 10 point lead over John McCain who went on to win the Rep nomination
– 2008= Hillary Clinton had a 15 point lead over Obama in USA Gallup Poll
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- Voters in earlier states have 5x more influence than a later voter
- Obama spent 87 days in Iowa and won the Iowa primary
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Primaries + caucuses (2)
Primary = election to choose a party’s candidate for an elective office, the Presidency
Caucus = meeting for the selection of a party’s candidate for an elective office
Open primary = any registered voters can vote for either a Dem or Rep candidate
– 2012 Wisconsin Rep open primary, 11% voters Dems
Closed primary = only registered party voters can vote in either party’s primary, or Independents could vote in either party’s primaries
– New Jersey primary 2016
Proportional primaries = when candidates are awarded delegates in proportion to the votes they get
– 2016 Arizona Rep primary - Trump received all 58 delegates (45.9% vote)
Iowa primary
- Iowa 1st caucus traditionally
– Rep caucuses in Iowa won by Ted Cruz (27%), beating Trump (24%) + Marco Rubio (23%). Positioned all 3 candidates
– Hillary had a very slim victory over Senator Bernie Sanders
– Predicting eventual nominee success mixed = Al Gore (2000), John Kerry (2004), Barack Obama (2008) & Hillary Clinton (2016) all won in Iowa. But John McCain (2008), Mitt Romey (2012) and Trump (2016) lost in Iowa
– owa has voted for the winning candidate in 6/7 last elections
Voter turnout
Varies between state:
– New Hampshire = 52%
– Louisiana = 18%
–Iowa = 15.7%
– Kansas = 5.5%
What affects turnout?
Demography
– Stephen Wayne: educated, wealthier, older people more likely to vote
– North Carolina Rep primary (2016)= over 50% had a college degree, 1/3 earned $100,000+, 75% 45+, only 6% 24 or younger
How competitive nomination is
– 2008 + 2016 higher turnout than 2004 + 2012
Whether nomination has been declared or not
- Earlier - higher turnout
– NY - undecided - 642,894
– 2012 - 189,599 - most had dropped out
Type of primary
Open primaries, likely to attract higher turnout.
- Especially when only one party has a competitive race. E.g. Rep Mississippi, 105% increase.
- Closed Rep primary, Connecticut turnout down 61% on 2008.
(see booklet - advantages + disadvantages essay?)
