ECONPLUSDAL THEME 2 Flashcards
Macroeconomic Objectives
Balanced trade
Low and stable inflation
Strong and sustainable growth
Fair distribution of income
Full employment
Environmental sustainability
Sound government finances
Productivity growth
Firms –> Households
Goods and services
Factor incomes
Households –> Firms
Consumer expenditure
Factors of Production
Leakages
Savings
Taxation
Imports
Injections
Investment
Government spending
Exports
National income
Measures the monetary value of the flow of output of goods and services produced in an economy over a period of time.
GDP
Gross Domestic Product; refers to the value of goods and services made in a country
Nominal vs Real GDP
Real values are adjusted for inflation, while nominal values are at current prices
GDP Methods
Output Method (Goods & Services)
Income Method (Factor incomes)
Expenditure Method (Consumer expenditure)
Advantages of Real GDP as a Comparison of Living Standards
FREQUENTLY - most countries provide information on GDP on a quarterly basis (which allows a user to spot trends more quickly)
WIDELY - some measure of GDP is available for practically every country in the world
CONSISTENTLY - measured consistently in that the technical definition of GDP is relatively consistent among countries
EASY - to calculate and interpret
Disadvantages of Real GDP as a Comparison of Living Standards
INACCURATE DATA COLLECTION - Each method of estimating GDP is imprecise, leading to inaccuracies in the published figures
UNPAID WORK - Non-marketed outputs e.g. DIY, the value of housework and voluntary activities are not yet part of official national income figures
SUBSISTENCE - Farmers, for example, consume what they produce, and as these goods are not traded, they do not appear in national income statistics
SIZE OF PUBLIC SECTOR - If government spending is high, does this necessarily mean there has been greater output? Or could this be a result of inefficiencies?
THE BLACK MARKET - Undeclared economic activity e.g. goods that are paid for without being declared for tax reasons is excluded from official income figures
REMITTANCE - Not included in GDP; FDI included
Limitations of GDP as a measure of standards of living
EXTERNALITIES (UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES) - pollution and environmental degradation may vary
QUALITY OF LIFE
POPULATION SIZE AND AGE DISTRIBUTION - to take account of differences in population size it’s necessary to calculate GDP per capita. Difficult to account for differences in age distribution
INCOME DISTRIBUTION - measuring living standards through GDP per capita would only be accurate if the distribution of income were the same in every country
Advantages of GNI as a measure of standards of living
Same as GDP
Includes remittance and removes FDI, thereby only including money kept in the country
Green GDP as a measure of standards of living
Same as GDP
Accounts for environmental costs
…but very subjective
…causes figures to fall dramatically (too politically sensitive to use)
Causes of short-term/actual economic growth
Increase in AD
Increase in SRAS
Causes of long-term/potential economic growth
Increase in quantity and/or quality of factors of production
Increase in productivity
Technology improves
Discovery of natural resources
Supply-side policies (education, deregulation, investment)
Boom
A period when the rate of growth of real GDP is fast and higher than its long-term trend
Slowdown
A weakening of the rate of growth, real GDP is still rising but increasing at a slower rate
Recession
2 consecutive quarters of negative growth
Recovery
A phase of the cycle, after a recession or depression, during which real GDP starts to increase and unemployment begins to fall
Depression
A prolonged downturn in the economy and where a nation’s GDP falls by at least 10 percent
Potential Output
The Output that could be produced in the economy if there were a full employment of resources
Output Gap
Measures the deviation between actual output and estimates of long-run potential output
Negative Output Gap
When actual GDP is less than potential GDP. Some factor resources are under-utilized. Main problem is likely to be higher unemployment
Positive Output Gap
Actual GDP is greater than potential GDP. Some resources working beyond usual capacity (shift work & overtime). Main problem is rising inflationary pressures
Steps to find CPI
1) Family expenditure survey, sent to about 10,000 households, track spending for 2 weeks
2) 650 most popular goods and services are collected - make a ‘basket’
3) Weights attached to goods based on their importance (% of income spent on them); weighted between 0 and 1 e.g. 50% [Symbol] 0.5
4) Base year selected - index of 100
5) Inflation tracked over period of time to give indexes for subsequent years (indexes calculated by (value of basket)/(value of basket in base year) * 100)
6) Data collected monthly to calculate inflation
7) ‘Basket’ of goods/services changed every year
Problems with CPI
Basket not representative of all consumers
Data may be inaccurate
Other countries may use different measures
Takes time for basket to change
If basket changes –> comparisons of past inflation becomes difficult
Demand Pull inflation
AD rises
Firms increase output to match
More pressure is put on factors of production, increasing their prices
Cost Push inflation
Firms respond to rising costs by increasing prices. CAUSES: Rising wages; Higher prices for raw materials; Exchange rates down; Business tax up (all factors that increase costs of production, making SRAS fall)
Consequences of inflation
Cuts value of cash in pocket
Hurts people on a fixed income - can’t buy as much so living standards go down
Hurts saves if interest rate is less than inflation
Hurts poor more
Hurts more if your pay rise is less than inflation
Helps people who borrow a lot - if you owe £100,000, you can pay it back later when it’s worth less
Deflationary spiral
When deflation occurs, the falling prices cause consumers to hold back consumption until prices fall even more, reducing overall economic activity. This idles productive capacity, so investment falls and AD drops further. This causes the deflationary spiral
Reduces the effect of interest rates (real rate always positive)
Increases the real value of debt
Unemployment
Those registered as able, available and willing to work, but who cannot find work despite an active search
Labour Force Survey
International Labour Organisation
Telephone Survey of 80,000 households = 100,000 people - must have actively sought work in the last 4 weeks and be available to start within 2 weeks. Over 16. Higher than Claimant Count. Currently 4.3% (42 year low).
Positives of LFS
More comprehensive
Includes all unemployed people
Internationally agreed standard
Negatives of LFS
Inconvenient (time consuming)
Sampling errors
People who want longer hours not included
Claimant count
The number of people who claim monthly JSA/Number of people who want to work. Must be out of work, capable of work, available for work, and actively seeking work. Not resigned in past 6 months or refused past 3 jobs. 18 to retirement age. Savings cap - 6k to 16k. Partner’s income taken into account. Must attend fortnightly Jobsearch Reviews.
Positives of Claimant count
Data is free
Easy to calculate
Constant accumulation, so current
Negatives of Claimant count
Many women want work but can’t get benefits (husband makes too much money for that etc.)
Older workers may be getting a pension from their old job or be supported by a spouse so can’t get benefits
Women can’t be registered as unemployed until they’re out of work for a few weeks
Doesn’t include part-timers
People might not be looking for a job but would take one if offered e.g. mothers raising a family
People moved from unemployment to sickness benefits aren’t counted
Government can manipulate data
People can claim benefits sometimes even if employed
Unemployed not included in the measures
Economically inactive (Discouraged workers; Hidden unemployed)
Under-employed
Cyclical unemployment (demand-deficient)
Labour is a derived demand. If growth is low, demand for labour will be low, causing unemployment
Structural unemployment
Immobility of labour (occupational or geographical)
Frictional unemployment
When workers are between jobs (not bad)
Seasonal unemployment
Regular seasonal changes in employment/labour demand. Affects certain industries more than others - Catering/Leisure, Construction, Retail, Tourism, Agriculture etc.
Real-wage unemployment
Created when real wages are maintained above their market clearing level leading to an excess supply of labour at the prevailing wage rate. Some economists believe that unemployment can be created in the national minimum wage is too high
Negative Consequences of Unemployment (Private)
Social exclusion
Can’t buy as many luxuries [Symbol] Living standards drop
Depression/anxiety
Move to public school
Potential divorce
Increased health risk
Loss of marketable skills + motivation
Less likely to get a job (they think the fact that you were unemployed for a while suggests there’s an issue)