Don'ts Flashcards

Things that I shouldn't expect (I don't expect/I never expect)

1
Q

Is it right to expect follow through?

A

I never assume any move will follow through

This is the foundation of the level-to-level approach

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2
Q

Is it reasonable to expect pullback?

A

I never expect a pullback untill a support fails

I basically never expect a pullback until supports fail. I learned many years ago to banish all counter-trend thoughts from my mind until the market provides evidence.

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3
Q

Is it reasonable to expect trend day (mode 1)?

A

never expect Mode 1 days

They are like winning a lottery - have not had one since Sept 11th. If people get 1 thing from my newsletter I hope its just to not think in straight lines, and think in terms of traps instead

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4
Q

Is it reasonable to expect breakout?

A

80% of breakouts are false breakouts, so … I lock in profits at first level and … I never expect them

80% of breakouts are false breakouts, so my assumption is all breakouts will fail (thats how I trade and why I lock in profits at first level and leave a runner). Breakouts are just nice bonuses in my view and I never expect them

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5
Q

Is it possible to time when pullback will occur?

A

Impossible to time when pullbacks will occur and even thinking about it just costs traders money

(either exiting longs far too early or for really awful traders/brand new traders, they will short and try to pick a top and time the pullback)

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6
Q

What should trader do until support hasn’t failed?

A

Until then, ride the trend!

I never expect corrections. They happen when a support fails, but its impossible to know when that will be. It happens when the market decides, and we react with shorts at that point. Until then, ride the trend!

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7
Q

Does it worth doing sometimes try counter-trending?

A

One way to dramatically reduce losses is to never fight the side that has control (bulls or bears).

Most easily avoidable losses come from doing so.

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8
Q

What is the importance of staying with trend?

A

Staying on the right side of the trend is 80% of trading.
Bad trades get bailed out on the right side of the trend and
good trades are more heavily rewarded

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