Demography Flashcards
What are the characteristics of demography?
-Size, Age structure, Births, Deaths, Immigration, Emigration
How has the population changed from 1901 to now? Estimate for 2031?
1901: 37m
1980s: most growth from net migration (more imm than emi)
Now:Approx 65ml
2031: 71m
What are birth rates? describe trends since 1900?
: Number or live births/ 1000 of the pop per year (prop of W childbearing & how fertile W are determine BR)
-Been a LT decline from 1900 to 2014 (29-12)
-However been fluctuations, 2 baby booms after WW2, one in 1960s.
What is total fertility rate
:The average number of children women will have in fertile years.
-Has risen in recent years, but still much lower than in past.
-All time low 1.6(2001) - 1.8(2014). Peak = 2.95 (in 1960s baby boom)
What do these changes in fertility and birth rate reflect?
-More W are remaining childless than in past
-W are postponing having children, av age now 30. Fertility (how many kids they have) for 30/40yr olds increasing, but can produce less.
What are the reasons for the decline in birth rate since 1900?
-Changes in W position
-Decline in IMF
-Children now economic liabilities
-Child centredness
-Future trends in birth rates
Explain changes in W position as factor
Been major changes in the 20th century :
-Legal Equality, Increased edu opp, More W in paid employment, Attitude changes to family life & W roles, easier divorce, control over fertility (abortion & contraception)
Harper
-Edu of W most important reason for the LT fall in BR &FR
-Led to a change in mindset, so fewer children, more likely to family plan, new opportunities that aren’t trad housewife/mother, so delay childbearing or not at all to pursue a career(2012:1in5 45 yr olds childless)
-also one pattern of low fertility passes down a gen, becomes the norm
What is infant mortality rate? declined?
: number of infants that die before first birthday/1000 born per year
-1900: IMR= over 15% died. Now about 4.
Why has IMR fallen?
-Improved housing/sanitation. eg clean water, reduced infections
-Better nutrition
-Knowledge of hygiene, child health -magazines/internet (from 1950s medical factors played greater role eg mass immunisations, measles)
-Fall in married W may = better health for them & babies
-Improved services eg postnatal clinics
Explain children as an economic liability
-Until 19th century we’re economic assets- worked, earn income
-Now Laws banning child labour, compulsory schooling/ leaving age leaves them dependant for longer
-Changing norms, abt what children have a right to expect in term of material needs increases cost if children.
-As a result of the financial pressure some may be less willing to have lots
Explain child centredness
-Both the family and society, means childhoods now socially constructed and a unique period in our lives.
-Encouraged shift from quantity to quality for family size- can lavish more attention and resources on fewer children
Explain future trends in birth rates
-One reason for the slight increase since 2001 is due to immigration.
-As on average mothers from outside UK have a high FR, they accounted for 25% of UK births in 2011.
-However estimate for 2041 expects annual number of births to stay fairly constant around 800,000 per year
What are the effects of changes in fertility
Changes in number of babies born effects:
-The family
-The dependency ratio
-Public services and policies
How does fertility changes affect the family?
-Smaller fams mean W are more likely free to go out to work- creating the dual earner couple (typical of many professional families)
-But fam size only one factor, better off couples may be able to afford larger families- and still pay for childcare to keep working FT.
How does fertility affect the dependency ratio.
:the relationship between size of productive and dependent population
-Earnings, taxes ect of PP support the DP- children large part, so a fall in n.o children reduces the ‘burdened of dependency’
-However, in LT fewer babies born= fewer young adults= smaller working pop= burden of dependency may increase again
-Vanishing Children: lonelier experience of childhood, fewer voices speaking for children’s interests (On other hand may be more valued)
How does fertility affect public services & policies
-A lower BR has consequences for public services eg, fewer schools, child health services may be needed. Costs of maternity/paternity leave. Type of housing needed.
-However, many of these are political decisions eg smaller schl or classes
-An ageing pop: Fewer babies= increased av age as there are more old people relative to young. Has a number of important effects
What is death rate?
-number of deaths/1000 of pop per year
-1900: 19 (rose slightly in 30s&40s due to economic depression/ WW2)
-2012: more than halved
What are the reasons for the decline in DR?
-Improved nutrition
-Medical improvements
-Smoking and diet
-Public health measures
-Other social changes
Tranter
-Argues over 3/4 of the decline in DR due to fall in deaths from infectious diseases eg measles, smallpox, tuberculosis ect.
-These we’re most common among infants, children & young adults (now may be a more natural resistance or now less powerful)
-By 1950s: infectious diseases replaced by ‘diseases of affluent’- heart disease, cancers affecting for middle age & old more
McKeown (improved nutrition-DR)
-Improved nutrition accounts for up to 1/2 the decrease in DR esp from tuberculosis.
-Increased resistance to infection, increased survival chances of infected
❌Doesn’t explain why W (who have smaller share of food) live longer.
❌ fails to explain why some infections rose at a time of better nutrition
Explain medical improvements (DR)
-Before 1950s: medical improvements played almost no part in reduction of deaths from infectious disease
-After: knowledge, techniques ect improved. Eg antibiotics, immunisation, blood transfers, maternity services, NHS (1948)
-Recently: developments have reduced heart disease deaths by 1/3
Harper (smoking & diet-DR)
-Greatest fall in DR simply due to less ppl smoking.
-However in 21st cen obesities replaced it as the new lifestyle epidemic (1/4 of uk obese in 2012)
-Despite this, obesity deaths low due to drug therapies (Harper: moving towards an American health culture, unhealthy but live long w medication)
Public health measures (DR)
-More effective central/local Gov have enforced laws & led to a range of improvements in public health & quality of env
-Eg housing improvements (drier/less crowded), purer drinking water, adulteration of food & drink laws, pasteurisation of milk, improved sewage disposal methods.
-Clean air act- reduced air pollution
What other social changes have helped reduce DR?
-Decline of dangerous manual occupations eg mining
-Smaller families- reduces rate of infection transfer
-Greater public knowledge of causes of illness
-Lifestyle changes, esp reduction in men smoking
-Higher incomes, afford healthier lifestyles
What is life expectancy
:How long, on average a person from a given year can expect to live
1900: M= 50, W=57
2013:M=90.7, W=94
-has increased due to lower infant mortality. Ie baby born today has better chance of reaching 65 than in 1900 reaching its 1st.
(predicted radical longevity-more centenarians in population)