Demographic Transition Model

Question 0

What does DTM suggests

Answer 0

1) changes in BR and DR are linked to socio-economic development
2) all countries pass through similar transition changes

Question 1

What is DTM?

Answer 1

It is a model that describes sequence of population changes over a period of time in European countries

Question 2

What is stage 1?

Answer 2

• High stationary
• High CBR and CDR and are subjected to short term fluctuations
• Existed in Pre-UK to 1760. But no country as a whole is in this stage
• Only applicable to sub Saharan Africa, ethiopiah, Bangladesh and isolated tribes in the Amazon.

Question 3

What is stage 2?

Answer 3

• Early expanding
• CDR plummets (20/1000) while CBR remains pretty high (35/1000)
• has 2 parts -> 1) period of accelerating growth
  - > 2) growth rate begins to fall though gap between them is pretty high
• Industrial revolution in europe (1760-1950) decline in DR, shift from an agrarian society to a industrial society, providing mass employment and I’m proving QOL
• Seen in Asia and Latin America

Question 4

What is stage 3?

Answer 4

• Late Expanding
• CBR stars to fall (20/1000) and CDR continues to decline (15/1000) but a much slower rate
• CBR > CDR but at a modest rate
• occurred in China and India (change in mindsets)
• birth control became more widespread and adults begin to pursue materialistic needs and carter goals
• present day china, Brazil and Argentina

Question 5

What is stage 4?

Answer 5

• CBR declines (16/1000) to a point where CDR=CBR and there is zero population growth
• BRS Low due to emancipation of women and changing roles of women and children seen as liability
• cost of bring up a child is expensive (Singapore- $260,000), increase access to FPP
• decline in DR due to increasing affordability and accessibility to tech and advancement in technology

Question 6

Usefulness

Answer 6

1) Provides a good general description of population changes of a country in a specific period of time
2) Provides a general comparison of growth rates between countries in a specific period of time
3) Attempts to provide general explanation for transition together with population changes
4) Provides a useful framework in projecting future population size
5) it is a good starting point for more refined models to be developed or formed

Question 7

Limitations

Answer 7

1) Crictised for making a broad generalization based mainly on European experiences
2) Mainly emphasizes on economic factor- assumes that decline in DR in stage 2 is due to industrialization
3) Does not provide explanations for the different causes of decline in BR
4) Does no predict when transition periods or occurs or how long these transitional periods are
5) Does not provide explanations for what happens after stage 4
6) Does not take into account international migration and the role of external influences of other countries