Demographic Transition

Question 1

Malthusian model

Answer 1

There is a set amount of land. As there is more population on that land, the marginal productivity of labour decreases, so you reach a point where you are just at subsistence. The land cannot support the population, so you have periodic shocks which kill off some of the population. Anything that increases population density does not increase the population’s wealth

Question 2

Guinnane

Answer 2

Why did fertility decline?
1. Housing costs due to urbanization,
2. changes in child-labour law,
3. increases in the opportunity costs of child bearing because of better labour-force opportunities for women,
4. the introduction of free or compulsory primary education
5. development of social-insurance systems

Question 3

Ashraf and Galor

Answer 3

Increase in productivity and better technology leads to a larger but not richer population, because richer households have more children

Question 4

Chaney and Hornbeck

Answer 4

Moriscos expusion - expelled one-third of the local population, leading to higher marginal product and output per worker. There are positive effects of land productivity and the technology on population density, but these have insignificant effects on income per capita

Question 5

Weil and Wilde

Answer 5

For some countries, halving the population would lead to a 26% increase in income for those who remain

Question 6

Escaping the Malthusian model

Answer 6

Acceleration of technological progress plus demographic transition are necessary; Technological progress raises return to human capital, which induces parents to substitute quality for quantity of children, which in turn makes technological progress faster. Eg. making sure your children know how to read instead of just working on a farm