Demographic Regimes

Question 1

Important Data

Answer 1

Malthus (1789): Essay on The Principle of Population
Shermer (2016): Counterargument on Malthus’ essay
Clark and Alter (2010): DTM of Europe in Industrial Revolution
Our World in Data (2013): 5 countries that went through Stage 1-4 of DTM

Question 2

What is demography?

Answer 2

The statistical study of human populations, examining the size, structure, composition and movement of people over time and across space.

Question 3

Why is demography important for economic history?

Answer 3

Because humans provide labour, which is one of the fundamental factors of production

Question 4

What does economic demography consider?

Answer 4

(1) birth and death
(2) marriage and divorce
(3) migration and social mobility

Question 5

How can demographers measure population?

Answer 5

(1) crude birth rate (CBR)
(2) crude death rates (CDR)
For trends in SPECIFIC PARTS of the population:
(3) infant mortality rate (IMR)
(4) early child (age 0-5) mortality rate
(5) age specific mortality (e.g. 65-70)

Question 6

What is Thomas Malthus’ essay on the principle of population?

Answer 6

Ultimate determinant of the vitality of populations (n economies): inescapable relationship between population and resources

Question 7

What are the 2 key observations in Thomas Malthus’ essay on the principle of population?

Answer 7

(1) people have an innate drive to reproduce -> population grows geometrically
(2) food supply faces diminishing returns bc supply of land is fixed -> food supply grows arithmetically

Question 8

When do we reach the Malthusian crisis point?

Answer 8

When the population grows more than the supply of resources

Question 9

What are the 2 key observations in Thomas Malthus’ assumptions?

Answer 9

(1) population levels are presumably determined endogenously (living standards and birth and death rates explain each other)
(2) economy is operating at the margins (will face declining marginal returns)

Question 10

What mechanisms regulate the size of populations?

Answer 10

(1) positive checks (mortality events) e.g. wars, famine and pandemics
(2) preventive checks (fertility) e.g. delaying marriage/not marrying, celibacy and contraception

Question 11

Counterargument to Malthus’ Essay

Answer 11

Shermer (2016):
Human beings are thinkers, in terms of reproducing we differ from other animals
Opposite of Malthus’ prediction - “the wealthies nations with the greatest food security have the lowest fertility rates, whereas the most food-insecure countries have the highest feritity rates.”
Overpopulation solution isn’t to force people to have less children (e.g. China’s one-child policy from 1979-2015) but to raise poor societies out of poverty through free trade, birth control accessiblity, and empowerment of women in education & the economy

Question 12

Explain the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

Answer 12

Stage 1: high birth and death rates equating to low population (tend to result in poorer societies)
Stage 2: fall in death rates equates to a rise in population
Stage 3: population still rises because of improved healthcare despite fall in birth rates
Stage 4: stable birth and death rates equating to population stabilising (in relatively more developed societies)
Stage 5: low death rates, population growth depends on trajectory of birth rate

Question 13

DTM in Europe context

Answer 13

Clark and Alter (2010):
Europe in 1700: high birth rate, modest education attainment, dominance of physical over human capital and low economic growth rate
Western Europe around 1870: birth rate fell, education levels rose and human capital became an important source of income
Eastern Europe: birth rate fell around 1900

Question 14

Countries that have transitioned from high birth & death rates (stage 1) to low birth & death rates (stage 4) in 2010

Answer 14

Data source: Our World in Data (2013)
1. Germany: population @ more than 80 million
2. Sweden: population @ less than 10 million
3. Chile: population @ around 17 million
4. Mauritius: population @ around 1.3 million
5. China: population @ around 1.3 billion

Question 15

What are the historical implications of the Demographic transition?

Answer 15

Key in creating modern economic growth because the post-transition population equilibrium allows economies to translate gains from capital and labour accumulation with changes in technology, into income per capita more efficiently

Question 16

What are the underlying mechanisms behind the Demographic transition?

Answer 16

The decline in death rates and eventually the decline in birth rates

Question 17

What are the factors that drove changes in mortality and fertility regimes in the 18th and 19th century Europe?

Answer 17

(1) improved healthcare
(2) changing mindset from being a full-time housewife that births child(ren) to not wanting children anymore
(3) women beginning to participate in the work force

Question 18

How did the changes in population dynamics impact the economy?

Answer 18

1. when fertility rates fall during transition
   -> fewer children to feed & care for in population
   -> labour force grows relatively larger than proportion of population dependent on labour force to feed it
   -> Demographic dividend: frees up resources in an economy to invest in areas that (1) improve economic development and (2) increase welfare of individuals and families
2. age structure of a society:
   stage 1 (pre-transition), mortality & fertility rates are high and life expectancy is low
   -> relatively fewer people of working age in populations
   -> fewer people to contribute to the economy.
   stage 4 (post-transition), more people of working age but life expectancy risen with falling mortality
   -> greater number of older people beyond working age that need to be supported by working-aged people.

Question 19

How does migration affect populations?

Answer 19

By affecting the rise and fall of population in a country