Demographic Perspectives Flashcards
What is a demographic perspective?
A way of relating basic information to theories about how the world operates demographically. Relate population factors (size, growth, age structure, geographic distribution) to the rest of what is going on in the world/region/society.
Who is John Graunt?
The father of demography. In 1662 he analysed the series of Bills of Mortality. This was the first known analysis of demographic data.
Who is Thomas Malthus?
Also a father of demography and it’s theory.
Postulations:
- Food is necessary for survival
- The passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain in its present condition
Hence: Population growth wouldn’t always have the potential to put space growth in food supply
Population when unchecked increases in a geometrical ratio whereas subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio.
He said population growth will be limited by two kinds of “checks”:
What are the critics of the Malthus theory?
There was no clear link between real wages and mortality/life expectancy in England.
The model took some aspects of society, economy, and agriculture as static, but they were undergoing rapid change so he described the past better than the future.
The Malthusian relationship between people and food was too simplistic.
The challenge to feed more people led to improved farming methods and invention of new technology.
What did Esther Boserup suggest?
Land food pressure acts as incentives. More food is made on the same plot of land.
What is the Neo-Malthusian theory?
The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.
What is a potential explanation for why we see mortality drop before fertility?
- It is relatively easier to drop death rate. For example, by improving sanitation and medication
- In many parts of the world - in order for us to see fertility decline - we need to see mortality decline first - one of the reasons for this is that if mortality is high then the likelihood that my child will survive is pretty low so ill have more children
One precondition for fertility to start falling is that mortality must decline first.
In 1908-1927, Warren Thompson grouped a number of countries into three main groups. What were these groups?
What does the demographic transition theory attempt to explain?
- the relationship between natural increase and population growth
- relationship between fertility, mortality, development, and social change
- stages of demographic transitions each country/region would endure
What are the limitations of the demographic transition theory?
- based on western traditions
- there is no time scale
- it does not account for migration
- there are only four stages but is there a fifth stage that we are heading towards?
What occurs in stage 1 of the demographic transition theory?
There is a young population. There is large cohorts of people in the “childbearing ages” meaning there’s lots of birth.
There is a high fluctuating death rate
Population growth is kept low due to famine, war, pestilence, late marriage.
What occurs in stage 2 of the demographic transition theory?
Lower middle income countries
There is a smaller % of age cohorts in younger ages compared to stage 1.
Death rate begins to fall due to improvements in sanitation and medication.
Birth rate remains high
There is rapid population growth
What does age and sex structure look like in stage 4?
What is a model?
Helps us make sense of a sequence of changes in relationships between birth rates and death rates
It is an attempt to simplify things so it may get rid of a lot of the complexities and diversities in the experience of demographic transition in dif countries and dif regions
What assumption does the first demographic theory make?
Assumption that there will be a demographic equilibrium at stage 4
At equilibrium there is a universal expectation for ppl to get married have kids
But fertility continues to fall
It’s hard to reverse the trend in fertility transition - even w policy initiatives
What does the second demographic theory attempt to address?
On the macro level: how societies evolve over time and emphasis on the role of ideational change in driving fertility decline.
On the micro level: individual’s value orientations as primary determinants of fertility and family behaviour.
Significant development in the western world tht wasn’t predcicted by the original demographic theory
- Ppl r postponing or avoiding marriage
- Delay parenthood or choose not to have kids at all
- Fertility continues to fall below replacement level
- Significant change in family forms - diverse family forms
Og transition theory predicted tht everyone would form a conjugal family - theres dif family forms w divorce - ppl tht live by themselves
There r also parenthood outside of marriage
This is what the second demographic transition theory tries to address
They proposed tht the primary driver of these trends - tht lead to fertility beyond replacement - is this cultural shift towards post-modern attitudes and norms
What is the principle demographic feature of the second transition theory what is the proposed driver?
Principal demographic feature: decline in fertility from somewhat above the replacement level of 2.1 births per women to a level well below replacement.
The driver was thought to be an ideational change regarding fertility. A shift from altruistic to individualistic norms and attitudes.
What time period does the FDT describe abs which time period does the SDT describe?
What were the three revolutions proposed by lestaeghe for the second demographic theory?
What are the standard features of the SDT?
What are the criticisms of the second demographic transition theory?
Std would only be relevant to particular countries
The rise in premarital cohabitation and decline in marriage would not be connected to cultural shifts - it is actually due to the rise of precarity and poverty
What is the latest take of the second demographic transition theory?
Other sources of change - changing nature of work - a lot of us are highly educated but have more anxiety abt securing jobs and housing
How is the annual population growth rate calculated?
What is the age-specific death rate?
The crude death rate for a specific age group. Age specific rates are usually expressed per 1000 or 100,000 population in the age group.
How do you calculate crude death rate?
How do you calculate infant mortality rate and why is it important?
Important for measuring neonatal causes.
What is life expectancy?
What are the years of life lost?
Where does mortality data come from?
What causes long term increases in life expectancy?
A complex interaction of socioeconomic factors and more proximate behavioural, environmental and medical factors.
Describe the age of degenerative man made disease
In these countries - the issues around smoking, poor diet, and lack of exercise r becoming issues
Describe the age of delayed degenerative disease
Describe risk factor and what are the major risk factors for mortality globally?
What is the likely trend for life expectancy in the future?
Since the mid-19th century the global record level of female life expectancy has increased at a steady rate of 3 months per year.
Optimistic view vs pessimistic view
Optimistic: life expectancy will continue to rise in the future at the same pace it has in the past. Life expectancy is not reaching a ceiling because if such limits existed then there would be a slow down in improvements in survival. This is not the case for low-mortality countries. Further developments in technology and biomedical will lead to further increases in survival.
Places where smoking is common may not experience continuing rises in life expectancy. Continued decline in infectious disease is not necessarily certain (covid-19).
Define prevalence
What are YLDs?
What are disability adjusted life years?
Combines premature mortality and years lived in morbidity
What is health adjusted life expectancy?
Lif expectancy but subtracting the amount of time tht ppl live in ill health, injury, or disability.
What is compression of morbidity?
