Decision making models Flashcards

1
Q

Why do decision take place?

A

Decision making solves problems. Some stakeholders may experience a negative impact, but if a decision helps achieve the common goal of aims and objectives, it is deemed a success. All decisions involve risk because the outcomes can be affected by internal and external factors.

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1
Q

What is a strategic decision?

A

-Strategic decisions are long term and will affect the direction the business takes.

-These decisions will affect the entire business and will be made by the owners or senior management.

-They are often complex and may result in major organisational change, which could be internal to the business, in the market, or in new markets they operate in.

-Also involves a large financial commitment.
-Example- deciding to expand operations overseas, which is a costly and lengthy process.

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2
Q

What are tactical decisions?

A

Tactical decisions are not as far reaching as strategic decisions; they tend to be medium term.
-They are less complex and are usually carried out by middle management.
-More flexible; if the decision is failing to meet its objective then it can be changed.
-For example, a decision taken by a marketing manager to change the way a product is promoted.

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3
Q

What are operational decisions?

A

Operational decisions are the day to day decisions.
-They tend to be short term and have little risk.
-Made by junior managers, supervisors and employees.
-Hundreds of operational decisions will be made in a typical day, by a range of employees, as they do not need the careful thought and planning.
-Many decisions are routine and can be taken quickly.
-Example- the decision by a retail supervisor to schedule the break times of staff working on a shift.

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4
Q

What are scientific decisions?

A

Systematic use of facts and data to arrive at a logical and evidence-based decision.
Quantitative sales forecasting, decision trees and other methods.W

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5
Q

What does scientific decision making involve?

A

clearly identifying the objective/objectives or problem to solve, collecting all relevant information – this can include primary or secondary data, analysis of the information, making and implementing the decision, monitoring and reviewing the change.

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6
Q

Advantages of scientific decisions?

A

clear sense of direction, easier to defend an objective policy, monitoring decisions.D

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7
Q

Disadvantages of scientific decisions?

A

may put workers under stress of manager strictness, can be affected by external factors, data may not be accurate or free of bias.

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8
Q

What are intuitive decisions?

A

Uses experience and intuition (gut feeling) to make decisions.
Proved successful for many entrepreneurs.
Made quickly, often used for operational decisions.

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9
Q

Advantages of intuitive decisions.

A

quick and uses experience.

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10
Q

Disadvantages of intuitive decisions.

A

risky, subjective, can’t use past experience alone because the environment is always changing.

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11
Q

Why is decision making important?

A

-Once a decision is made, it is difficult to stop any processes that have been instigated.
-Decisions have far reaching implications.
-Wrong decisions can cause financial loss and ultimately result in business failure.

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12
Q

What is cost benefit analysis?

A

=A method that considers the financial feasibility of a project. Includes costs and benefits to the business and also the external costs and benefits. Often used by governments when contemplating public projects like new railways such as HS2.

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13
Q

What are private costs?

A

-Costs to the business making the investment. Training and recruitment, upfront costs, new equipment, marketing costs.

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14
Q

What are private benefits?

A

-Benefits that the business gains as a result of the investment.
-Increased productivity, increased sales, brand value and profits.

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15
Q

What are public costs?

A

-More difficult to quantify.
-External costs of society and community.
-Environmental impact, loss of open space, traffic congestion, noise pollution.

16
Q

What are public benefits?

A

-People outside the business have something to gain from the investment.
-Jobs, convenience, filling a gap in services, increased tax to the government, consumer spending.

17
Q

Cost benefit analysis formula?

A

Cost benefit analysis= Social benefits (private benefit + public benefits)- social costs (public and private costs).

18
Q

How do you carry out a CBA?

A

Identify all costs/benefits and convert all of them, including intangibles, to a monetary value.
Apply some method of probability analysis and take into account the timing of each cost and benefit.
Complete formula.

19
Q

Advantages of cost benefit analysis?

A

-Simplifies complex decisions and comparing benefits means an objective approach.
-Public impact would normally be ignored by the private sector.
-Used to rank major projects.

20
Q

Disadvantages of cost benefit analysis?

A

-Valuation of intangibles is difficult and often includes judgements which could be wrong.
-Wrong choice could be made if inaccurate.
-Not all stakeholders included.

21
Q

What are decision trees and what are they used for?

A

Helps to make decisions where there are several options. It is a mathematical model that uses estimates and probabilities to calculate likely outcomes in order to help which option has the most net gain.

22
Q

What are the components of a decision tree?

A

-Square decision nodes and circular change nodes.
- Success or failure chances and their expected monetary values.

23
Q

How do you draw a decision tree?

A
  1. Multiple the success chance with the EMV and add this to the failure chance multiplied by its EMV.
  2. Write this in the circular node.
  3. Subtract the cost of choice to get the net gain.
  4. Repeat for another option and cross the lower net gain option out.
  5. Write highest net gain in the square node.
24
Q

Benefits of decision trees?

A

-Clearly lays out problems so all options can be considered.
-Managers can fully analyse the possible risks and consequences.
-Quantifies the outcomes and the probability of achieving them.

25
Q

Limitations of a decision tree?

A

-Probabilities are estimates so could be inaccurate.
-Can oversimplify decisions and focus on the financial outcome.
-Ignores qualitative factors such as opinions, labour considerations, customer loyalty, branding, etc.
-Time consuming to construct.
-Could be interpreted with bias.

26
Q

What is critical path analysis?

A

A method of planning and controlling large projects based on managing the allocation of resources and time.

27
Q

Why is critical path analysis needed?

A

-Some tasks are dependent on each within a network. CPA allows a business to plan the activities involved in completing projects, so that the overall project is completed in the most efficient manner possible.
-It finds the shortest amount of time the project can be completed.

28
Q

What is a critical activity?

A

A critical activity= one that must be started and completed on time if the project is to be finished on time. Have the same EST and LFT, therefore the activity cannot be delayed.

29
Q

How are the nodes labelled?

A

LEFT- order of labelling.
TOP RIGHT- earliest start time of next activity.
TOP LEFT- latest finishing time for previous activity.

30
Q

How do you construct a critical path analysis diagram?

A
  1. Write the nodes, durations and activities.
  2. Forwards pass, calculating ESTs.
  3. Find minimum completion time, and fill this in for the LFT, perform a backwards pass by subtracting durations in order to find LFT.
  4. Identify critical paths/activities.
31
Q

Benefits of CPA?

A

-CPA is an effective management tool for planning and controlling complex projects.
-Allows effective management of resources.
-Reduces the need for working capital.
-Allows use of JIT production.
-Improves cash flow because of reduced need for working capital.
-Improves overall management of projects.

32
Q

Limitations of CPA?

A

-Information can be distorted or poor methods of (over optimistic) estimation of activity durations can be used.
-CPA can give the wrong results or fail to allow for external factors.
-Sub-contractors can be outside the communication.
-Supplies may be delayed.
-Only identifies the critical activities does not ensure they are completed.
-Can be time consuming.
-Does not ensure quality.