Decision Making Flashcards
(22 cards)
Estimates about whether certain facts about the world are true
Premises
Proposition
Deduction vs. Induction
Deduction: we start with a set of premises and use them to arrive at additional conclusions
The most basic form of deductive reasoning is the syllogism, a kind of reasoning in which a conclusion is derived from two or more propositional statements
Categorical syllogism
If all A are B and all B are C then all A are C
Statistical syllogism
A statistical syllogism (or proportional syllogism or direct inference) is a non-deductive syllogism. It argues, using inductive reasoning, from a generalization true for the most part to a particular case.
The belief bias
Belief bias is the tendency in syllogistic reasoning to rely on prior beliefs rather than to fully obey logical principles
Atmosphere effect
When people rate a conclusion as valid as long as the qualifying words (ex “some” “all”) in the premises match those is the conclusion
Conditional syllogism
If P than Q. If it is Tuesday than I have class
Modus tollens (denying the consequent)
A rule in relation to conditional syllogisms when we observe that the consequent is false and conclude that the antecedent must be false as well
Wason’s card task
Bayesian inference
Expected utility theory
People should make the decision that maximizes value, we anticipate the value we will receive from different decisions or actions
Loss aversion
A tendency of people to prefer avoiding losing something as compared with not gaining something of equal value
Endowment effect
Tendency for people to place higher value on objects they already own over those they don’t own yet
Standard marshmallow experiment
Nudge theory
Examples of nudges include sending people a reminder to schedule a doctor’s appointment, ensuring that healthier food is more noticeable in a cafeteria, providing people with information regarding how much electricity they use, and reminding people what audience will see what they’re about to post on social media.
Affect heuristic
Incorporates mood state into decisions. You may overestimate the risk of events that generate a strong emotional reaction
Anchoring heuristic
Relies on information we are given previously to ground our other decisions. For example, sales signs provide you with an anchoring price before showing you the discounted price. This increases the likelihood of perceiving the discounted price as favourably lower amount
Syllogism
The process of drawing conclusions from two or more propositions
Modus ponens or affirming the antecedent
A rule in relation with a conditional syllogisms in which if the antecedent is observed to be true, then the consequent may be concluded to be true
Base rate neglect
How many in the first place. Not considering the numbers and probabilities at first
Conjunction fallacy
False belief that the conjunction of two conditions is more likely than either single condition: Linda the feminist bank teller
