CURVE series (WIT/CCM)

Question 1

What does CURVE stand for?

Answer 1

Causes and Uncertainty: Rethinking Value in Expectation

Question 2

Who is Timothy Jaurek?

Answer 2

A pseudonym for Bob’s co-author for the contractualism post. No other details known to JB at the time of writing.

Question 3

Contractualism says that morality is about…

Answer 3

…what we can justify to those affected by our actions

Question 4

What does contractualism say we should maximize instead of expected value?

Answer 4

The relevant strength-adjusted moral claims of existing individuals that are addressed per dollar spent

Question 5

Who is the main proponent of contractualism?

Answer 5

T.M. Scanlon (What We Owe to Each Other,1998)

Question 6

The expected value (EV) of an action is…

Answer 6

an average of the possible outcomes of that action, weighted by the probability of those outcomes occurring if the action is performed.

Question 7

On which considerations does helping chickens dominate helping humans or shrimps?

Answer 7

EV maximization, worse-case risk aversion, and difference-making risk aversion.

Question 8

WLU stands for

Answer 8

Weighted-Linear Utility Theory

Question 9

REU stands for

Answer 9

risk-weighted utility theory

Question 10

DMREU stands for

Answer 10

difference-making risk-weighted expected utility

Question 11

EDM stands for

Answer 11

expected difference made

Question 12

When would x-risk mitigation dominate cage-free campaign?

Answer 12

If you expect counterfactual impacts of that x-risk mitigation intervention to last over 10,000 years.

Question 13

How many (sentience-adjusted, human-equivalent) DALYs could be averted per $1000 intervention by each of 1) AMF, 2) shrimp stunning, 3) ammonia intervention for shrimps?

Answer 13

1) 19
2) 30
3) 1500
(Source: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CZ5S-Eayxr64z5YADYR9M3P2WTp4u2Pgb4N-ynYbbMU/edit#heading=h.kuhe2te0uxb3, p. 64)

Question 14

What can Arvo’s tool do?

Answer 14

Calculate and graph the expected value of risk mitigation with any arbitrary value trajectory and risk profile.

Question 15

According to Dave, what do you have to believe to prioritize AI x-risk reduction work?

Answer 15

(1) significant chance some misaligned AI will be deployed and seek power, which poses an existential risk
(2) the aligned AI we develop will be sufficiently capable to solve non-AI x-risks
(3) future animal lives will not be too bad
(4) total utility counts

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/WdL3LE5LHvTwWmyqj/p/i5cuLZH3SQJigiHMs