Credit Analysis Models Flashcards
Default risk
Likelihood of default event
Default risk preimium
Reflects uncertainty in timing of default
Credit Risk
Given Default, how much is likely to be lost?
L.G.D - Loss Given Default
LGD Formula = Expected Exposure * Loss sensitivity
Expected Exposure
The amount of money that could be lost in default without consdidering recovery
Example: 1 year 4% bond at par - EE = 104
Recovery Rate
% of recovered in default
Loss sensitivty
1 - RR
Formula for Probability of Default (POD) at time n
(Probability of survival at n-1) x (Probability of default)
Formula for Expected loss
LGD x PODn
[EE(1-RR)] x [Pos n-1 x POD]
Credit analysis of securitized debt: Homogenity
THINK OF SIMILARITY
Degree to which the underlying debt characteristics are similar across individual obligations.
Homogenity: General concluion from the class.
Hetrogenity: Security on a loan by loan basis
Credit analysis of securitized debt: Granularity
Actual number of obligations in the structural security
Many: Conclusion based on summary statistics
Few: Analysis of each individual secuirty.
Credit analysis of securitized debt: Organation and Secuicing
Exposure to operational counterparty risk over the life of the securitized asset.
Credit analysis of securitized debt:
Structure of the secured debt transaction
SPV + Any strucutural enhancement
What is Credit Scores?
Retail lending market
Ranks a borrowers credit riskiness from highest to lowest.
Does not provide estimate of a borrowers default probability.
It is called an ordinal ranking because it only orders borrowers riskiness from highest to lowest.
Does not depend on economic conditions
What is Credit rating?
Wholesale lending market. Ranks credit risk of a company, government, or ABS.
Risk Neutral Probability
FV = [ND(1-P) + DxP] / 1+rfr
**Best way to conceieve Risk neutral probabilities of default **: The historical probability of default + premium for the uncertainty of the timing of default.