COnsumption Investment and intoduction to macro Flashcards

1
Q

What is the difference between macro and Micro economics?

A

Microeconomics analyses individual entities, such as markets, firms and consumers •

Macroeconomics analyses broad aggregates at the level of the entire economy, such as total output, the rate of economic growth, the balance of payments and so on…

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2
Q

WHat is the difference between real and nominal GDP?

A

GDP is the value of all final goods and services produced. •

Nominal GDP measures these values using current prices. •

Real GDP measures these values using the prices of a base year. •

Changes in nominal GDP can be due to: – changes in prices – changes in quantities of output produced

• Changes in real GDP can only be due to changes in quantities, because real GDP is constructed using constant base-year prices.

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3
Q

Explain Sticky and felxible prices

A

Market clearing: An assumption that prices are flexible, adjust to equate supply and demand.

• In the short run, many prices are sticky – adjust sluggishly in response to changes in supply or demand. For example: – many labor contracts fix the nominal wage for a year or longer – many magazine publishers change prices only once every 3 to 4 years.

The economy’s behavior depends partly on whether prices are sticky or flexible: – If prices sticky (short run), demand may not equal supply, which may explain:

• unemployment (excess supply of labor) •

why firms cannot always sell all the goods they produce –

If prices flexible (long run), markets ‘clear’ and the economy behaves very differently

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4
Q

Differnce between stocks and flows

A

A stock is a quantity measured at a point in time

A flow is a quantity measured per unit of time.

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5
Q

What are the components of national income in an closed and open economy?

A

In a closed economy, at market prices:

Y ≡ C + I + G •

Income/Output (Y) • Consumption (C) • Investment (I) • Government Expenditure (G)

At basic prices: Y ≡ (C + I + G) – Te •

Indirect taxes (Te)

With households’ PERSONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME at basic prices ≡ Y + B – Td

• Income/Output (Y) • Transfer payments (B) • Direct taxes (Td)

And savings (S) as the part of disposable income not spent on consumption S ≡ (Y + B – Td) – C

In an open economy we have to consider:

• Imports (Z) goods produced abroad but purchased domestically • Exports (X): goods domestically produced but sold abroad. •

with Net Exports NX = (X – Z)

Therefore at basic prices:

Y ≡ C + I + G + X – Z – Te ≡ C + I + G + NX – Te

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6
Q

WHat are the two deffinitions of GDP

A

– Total expenditure on domestically-produced final goods and services. –

Total income earned by domestically-located factors of production.

Expenditure equals income because every dollar a buyer spends becomes income to the seller.

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7
Q

Exaplin Aggregate demand and suply and the equilbirium

A
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8
Q

Exaplin DEmand for funds : Investment

A

The demand for loanable funds…

– comes from investment: Firms borrow to finance spending on plant & equipment, new office buildings, etc. Consumers borrow to buy new houses.

– depends negatively on r, the “price” of loanable funds (cost of borrowing).

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9
Q

Explain Supply of Funds : Saving

A

The supply of loanable funds comes from saving:

– Households use their saving to make bank deposits, purchase bonds and other assets. These funds become available to firms to borrow to finance investment spending.

– The government may also contribute to saving if it does not spend all the tax revenue it receives

private saving = (Y – T) – C

public saving = T – G

national saving, S = private saving + public saving = (Y –T ) – C + T – G = Y – C – G

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10
Q

Explain the role of intrest rate

A

r adjusts to equilibrate the goods market and the loanable funds market simultaneously:

If L.F. market in equilibrium, then Y – C – G = I

Add (C +G ) to both sides to get Y = C + I + G (goods market equilibrium)

Thus, Eq’m in L.F. market = Eq’m in goods market

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11
Q

Why does saving depend on the intrest rate?

A
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12
Q

Explain GDP deflator

A

• Inflation rate: the percentage increase in the overall level of prices •

One measure of the price level:

GDP deflator Definition:

GDP deflator = 100 * Real GDP/Nominal GDP

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13
Q

What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)?

A

A measure of the overall level of prices

• What is it used for? It

– tracks changes in the typical household’s cost of living

– adjusts many contracts for inflation

– allows comparisons of monetary amounts over time

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14
Q

Define Consumption?

A

Definition: The value of all goods and services bought by households, inc

Durable Goods

Non durable goods

Services

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15
Q

What are the 6 perspectives of Consumption?

A

– John Maynard Keynes: consumption and current income (a reminder)

– Irving Fisher: intertemporal choice

– Franco Modigliani: the life-cycle hypothesis

– Milton Friedman: the permanent income hypothesis

– Robert Hall: the random-walk hypothesis

– David Laibson: the pull of instant gratification

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16
Q

What is disposable income

A

Disposable income is total income minus total taxes:

Y – T.

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17
Q

WHat is MPC?

A

Marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is the change in C when disposable income increases by one pound.

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18
Q

Explain the Keynes’ Consumption function

A
  1. 0 < MPC < 1 2.

Average propensity to consume (APC ) falls as income rises. (APC = C/Y )

  1. Income is the main determinant of consumption.
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19
Q

What are the implications of the Keynesian Consumption FUnction?

A
  • The distribution of income will affect total consumption
  • Economies may suffer from ‘underconsumption’ as they grow
  • Governments can expand demand through fiscal policy
20
Q

What problems existed for Keynesian Consumption function and what is the Consumption Puzzle

A
  • Based on the Keynesian consumption function, economists predicted that C would grow more slowly than Y over time.
  • This prediction did not come true:
  • – As incomes grew, APC did not fall, and C grew at the same rate as income.
  • – Simon Kuznets showed that C/Y was very stable from decade to decade.
21
Q

Explain Irving Fisher and Intertemporal Choice

A

The basis for much subsequent work on consumption.

  • Assumes consumer is forward-looking and chooses consumption for the present and future to maximize lifetime satisfaction.
  • Consumer’s choices are subject to an intertemporal budget constraint, a measure of the total resources available for present and future consumption.
22
Q

Compare Keynes and Fisher?

A
  • Keynes: Current consumption depends only on current income.
  • Fisher:

– Current consumption depends only on the present value of lifetime income.

– The timing of income is irrelevant because the consumer can borrow or lend between periods.

23
Q

What is the Life Cycle Hypothesis

A
  • due to Franco Modigliani (1950s)
  • Fisher’s model says that consumption depends on lifetime income, and people try to achieve smooth consumption.
  • The LCH says that income varies systematically over the phases of the consumer’s life cycle, and saving allows the consumer to achieve smooth consumption.
24
Q

Exaplin basic life cycle hypothesis model

A

The basic model:

W = initial wealth

Y = annual income until retirement (assumed constant)

R = number of years until retirement

T = lifetime in years

• Assumptions:

– zero real interest rate (for simplicity)

– consumption smoothing is optimal

Life time resources = W +RY

To achieve smooth consumption, consumer divides her resources equally over time:

25
Q

What are the implications of the Life-Cycle Hypothesis?

A

The LCH can solve the consumption puzzle: –

The life-cycle consumption function implies APC = C/Y =a(W/Y) + ß

– Across households, income varies more than wealth, so high-income households should have a lower APC than low-income households.

– Over time, aggregate wealth and income grow together, causing APC to remain stable

26
Q

What is the permanent income Hypothesis?

A
  • due to Milton Friedman (1957)
  • Y = Y P + Y T where Y = current income

Y P = permanent income average income, expected to persist into the future

Y T = transitory income temporary deviations from average income

Consumers use saving & borrowing to smooth consumption in response to transitory changes in income.

• The PIH consumption function: C = a Y P where a is the fraction of permanent income that people consume per year.

The PIH can solve the consumption puzzle:

– The PIH implies APC = C / Y = aY P/ Y

– If high-income households have higher transitory income than low-income households, APC is lower in high-income households.

– Over the long run, income variation is due mainly (if not solely) to variation in permanent income, which implies a stable APC.

27
Q

Compare Permanent income Hypothesis to Life Cycle Hypithesis

A

Both: people try to smooth their consumption in the face of changing current income.

  • LCH: current income changes systematically as people move through their life cycle.
  • PIH: current income is subject to transitory fluctuations.
  • Both can explain the consumption puzzle.
28
Q

What is the Random-Walk Hypothesis?

A

due to Robert Hall (1978)

  • based on Fisher’s model & PIH, in which forward-looking consumers base consumption on expected future income
  • Hall adds the assumption of rational expectations, that people use all available information to forecast future variables like income.

If PIH is correct and consumers have rational expectations, then consumption should follow a random walk:

changes in consumption should be unpredictable.

– A change in income or wealth that was anticipated has already been factored into expected permanent income, so it will not change consumption.

– Only unanticipated changes in income or wealth that alter expected permanent income will change consumption.

29
Q

What are the implications of ‘Normal’ Income theories?

A

• Consumption doesn’t vary as much as income

– Doesn’t fall as much in recessions

– Doesn’t rise as much during booms

  • Temporary income changes have less impact on spending than permanent income changes
  • Expectations about future income may change spending patterns today
  • Savings rates will be lower when expectation is that future income will be higher
  • Savings can be negative
  • People must be able to borrow

– Lack of borrowing opportunities = Higher Savings

30
Q

What is the Psychology of Instant Gratification?

A
  • Theories from Fisher to Hall assume that consumers are rational and act to maximize lifetime utility.
  • Recent studies by David Laibson and others consider the psychology of consumers.
  • Consumers consider themselves to be imperfect decision makers. – In one survey, 76% said they were not saving enough for retirement.
  • Laibson: The “pull of instant gratification” explains why people don’t save as much as a perfectly rational lifetime utility maximizer would save.
31
Q

What is Investment?

A

…Is new spending on capital goods (physical assets) that will allow increased output of goods and services in the future (Investment is not saving in financial assets such as shares and bonds)

  • Gross Investment: Total capital spending
  • Net Investment: Gross investment minus an estimate for capital consumption (replacement for depreciated goods)
  • If net investment is positive, the total capital stock of the economy is expanding
32
Q

What are the three types of Investment?

A

Business fixed investment: businesses’ spending on equipment and structures for use in production

. • Residential investment: purchases of new housing units (either by occupants or landlords).

Inventory investment: the value of the change in inventories of finished goods, materials and supplies, and work in progress.

33
Q

Explain Investment and Aggregate Demand

A
  • Investment is an important component of aggregate demand – In the UK capital spending usually accounts for between 15-20% of GDP measured by aggregate expenditure (two-thirds of expenditure is consumption)
  • If extra investment improves the international competitiveness of businesses in domestic and international markets – this injects extra demand into the economy through higher exports
34
Q

Explain Investment and Aggregate Supply?

A

Capital spending can boost the supply-side of the economy

– Direct impact on productive capacity in individual industries

– Capital goods increase the ability to supply consumer goods and services (long term impact on living standards)

– New capital inputs often embody technological progress

– improving the vintage of the existing capital stock

• Higher levels of investment increase the scope for non-inflationary economic growth over time

35
Q

Explain the investment function and the real intrest rate

A

The investment function is I = I(r)

where r denotes the real interest rate, the nominal interest rate corrected for inflation.

• The real interest rate is

– the cost of borrowing

– the opportunity cost of using one’s own funds to finance investment spending

36
Q

When do firms invest?

A
  • Firms invest in new capital when the benefit of doing so exceeds the cost
  • The benefit (per unit capital) is defined as R/P where

R = nominal rental rate

P = price of output

37
Q

What is the marginal product of an Input?

A
38
Q

How is profit maximized in the LR

A

• Mathematically the optimal choice of inputs, K* and L* , is characterised by:

pMPL(K* , L* ) = w

pMPK(K* , L* ) = r

• Firms maximize profits by choosing K such that MPK = R/P.

39
Q

What is the nominal cost of capital?

A

Components of the cost of capital:

interest cost: i * PK, where PK = nominal price of capital

depreciation cost: ς* PK, where ς = rate of depreciation

capital loss: -deltaPK

(a capital gain, deltaPK > 0, reduces cost of K)

40
Q

What is the real cost of capital compared to nominal cost?

A
41
Q

The (rental) firm’s profit rate?

A
42
Q

What is net and gross investment?

A
43
Q

How is Investment function affected by r?

A
44
Q

How is investment function affected by MPK or Pk/P?

A
45
Q

What is the Keynes investment function?

A

Basic intuition, similar both to that of classical economists and to the framework we use today:

investment is the result of firms balancing the expected return on new capital - the marginal product of capital (modern economics); marginal efficiency of capital (for Keynes) - with the cost of capital, which is a function of the real interest rate.

• The investment-demand curve is volatile because it depends on firms’ expectations of the profitability of investment. Keynes thought that the “animal spirits” of investors tended to fluctuate wildly in waves of optimism and pessimism

46
Q

Explain the importance of business confidence

A

Investment projects inevitably involve a degree of risk

– Revenue streams are uncertain (particularly in industries and markets that are sensitive to cyclical and exchange rate fluctuations)

– Costs are subject to change over time

– There is no guarantee that a project will yield the expected (or required) rate of return

  • Changes in business confidence can have a huge impact on planned capital spending projects
  • Confidence is affected by many factors – but is driven mainly by expectations (e.g. of future demand, costs, taxation etc)
  • A drop in business optimism can lead to delays in capital projects being given the go ahead or cancellations of entire projects
47
Q

What other factors influence investment?

A

Profitability

  • Public policies – Erratic government policies may lead to increased uncertainty and decreases in investment.
  • Inadequate financial systems
  • Overemphasis on dividends in the Stock Market
  • Technological shocks