Congressional Elections

Question 1

introduction to congressional elections

Answer 1

• all seats in the US Congress are elected
• there are 435 members of the House of Representatives who are elected for two-year terms
• there are 100 senators who are elected for six-year terms, on third, being elected at a time
• this means that in any given election year all 435 representatives are up for election, whereas only 33 or 34 senators are being elected
• all of these elections operate on a first-past-the-post basis

upcoming elections include:
2012 - Presidential, 435 House seats and 33 senate seats
2014 - 435 House seats and 33 senate seats

• congressional election held in between Presidential years, such as 2010 and 2014 are known as midterm elections

Question 2

Elections to the US House of Representatives

Answer 2

• most seats (Congressional districts) in the US are considered safe, in the sense that they lean very heavily towards one party
• as a rule, over 90% of incumbents in elections to the House of Representatives win re-election
• Corporations and PACs trying to further their agenda will usually give more money to incumbents because of the likelihood of them winning
• this allows for them to advertise much more and be able to campaign much more extensively, creating a ‘Catch 22’ situation
• incumbents enjoy much greater name recognition
• incumbents can also engage in pork barrel politics, bring spending and jobs to their districts

Question 3

what is gerrymandering?

Answer 3

• the practice that attempts to establish a political advantage for a particular party or group by manipulating district boundaries to create partisan advantaged districts
• the effects for incumbents is particularly advantageous as incumbents are far more likely to be re-elected under conditions of gerrymandering
• e.g. in 2002 according to political scientists Norman Ornstein and Thoman Mann only four challengers were able to defeat incumbent members of the US Congress, the lowest number in modern American history
• gerrymandering may be used to help or hinder a particular demographic, such as a political, ethnic, racial, linguistic, religious, or class group, such as in US federal voting district boundaries that produce a majority of constituents representative of African-American or other racial minorities, know as “majority-minority districts”

Question 4

what was the most controversial case of gerrymandering?

Answer 4

• 2003 in Texas
• accusations that Republican Tom Daley and Texas sate legislators had deliberately re-drawn the Congressional district boundaries to dilute the influence of heavily Democratic areas for Republican advantage
• furthermore, Texas legislators proceeded with the new plan “because it would maximise the number of Repulibcan federal lawmakers in the state”

Question 5

what is cracking?

Answer 5

• attempting to divide an area which votes for your opponent in a number of different districts
• the Texas case is a good example of this

Question 6

what is packing?

Answer 6

• when a party concentrates its supporters into one district to create a safe seat
• this can often overlap with ethnicity, for instance as African-Americans vote so overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates, it is in the Democrats’ interest to have a seat with a heavy concentration of this ethnic group

Question 7

what is an example of a packing district?

Answer 7

• North Carolina District 12
• as the only voters who reside in the oddly shaped district are predominantly African-American
• Illinois District 4 which packs two Hispanic areas while retaining narrow contiguity along Interstate 294

Question 8

what another big advantage for incumbents

Answer 8

• they will sometimes run unopposed
• e.g. in 2012 there were ten Representatives who did not face a major party opponent
• this results in much attention focusing on the party’s primary to select the Congressional candidate which can in fact be much more competitive:
• in 2013 13 incumbents (seven Democrats, six Republicans) were defeated in internal primary challenges
• many of these incumbents were on the moderate or centrist wings of their respective parties, such as Democrats Jason Altmire (centrist) and Tim Holden (Blue Dog Democrat)
• in many districts incumbents are significantly more likely to lose office this way

Question 9

what are the money advantages for incumbents candidates?

Answer 9

• dominate
• since 1974 only on one occasion has the re-election rate dropped below 90% and between 1998 and 2004 the re-election rate didn’t drop below 98%
• the 2010 election is the outlier, when the GOP won a resounding victory after a campaign fuelled by public opposition to Obamacare and the wider growth of the federal government and the Tea Party Movement

Question 10

2012 House Elections

Answer 10

• the 2012 election saw a moderate recovery for the Democrats: this party gained eight seats overall (and the GOP lost eight)
• while the Republican won 234 seats to the Democrats’ 201, the Democrats won a greater share of the popular vote (48.8% vs 47.6%)

Question 11

nationalisation of House Elections

Answer 11

• in terms of elections to the House of Rep in particular, the trend towards partisanship continues to be evident
• in the past these election were very much candidate-centred with little relation to the party of the candidate
• in some areas this continues to be the case: for example John Barrow, a Blue Dog Democrat representing a Georgia district, makes very limited reference to being a Democrat in his election material, instead focusing on the fact that he is endorsed by the National Rifle Association due to his support for the 2nd Amendment
• parties have become more important in Congressional elections

Question 12

when did the nationalisation trend begin?

Answer 12

• originated in 1994, when for the first time the GOP published a national election document called “Contract with America”
• this was a manifesto-style list of proposals which all Republican candidates were expected to uphold, with the party promising Americans that if they won a majority in the elections that year they would implement the proposals
• this meant that 1994 was more of a national election, rather than 435 separate elections in individual districts

Question 13

what is the Democrats’ evidence of nationalisation of House Elections?

Answer 13

• this occurred in 2006, when the Democrats published their “6 for 6” which was similar to the “Contract with America” but from a left-leaning perspective
• that said, while these do represent a trend towards the parties being genuinely important rather than a ‘label’ these documents were not quite manifestos in the sense of being a list of highly specifics promises and proposals

Question 14

how did the 2010 election show evidence of a national election?

Answer 14

• The Republicans fought on a national ‘anti-Obamacare’ platform

Question 15

elections to the US Senate

Answer 15

• senate elections are generally less ideological than House elections, which is primarily because senators represent whole states rather than individual districts which may be gerrymandered
• moreover, changes in the Senate are much more gradual, because unlike the House of Representatives only one third of the senate is up for election every two years
• the 2012 election resulted in a Democratic majority: 53 Democrats and two independents who vote with the Democrats against 45 Republicans