congressional elections Flashcards
why are re-election rates higher in congress
they have no limit on their terms
stats for re-election rates
House - 91% are relected as at 2018
Senate - 94%
average length of service
senate - 10 years
house - 8 years
what do the high re-election rates mean
Incumbency is an even stronger factor in Congress, because there is no term limit, so voters get much more attached to their representatives. Incumbency re-election rates are therefore much higher in Congress
than for presidents.
why are there high incumbent re-election rates in congress
safe seats increased through gerrymandering
pork barrel politics provides opportunities for incumbents
familiarity increased by the lack of term limits makes them less likley to be voted out
gerrymandering examples
After 2021 redistricting, 35 of 38 congressional districts of texas are safe for either Democrats or Republicans, leaving only 3 swing districts
Gerrymandering - As of the 2022 Midterm Elections, only one out of 7 districts in Alabama had a Democratic Party Lean, and as a result, there is only one Democrat Alabaman representative, Terri Sewell. Obvious Example of Gerrymandering that gives republicans a clear advantage
example of a member of congress serving multiple terms
susan collins a republican has held her seat in democrat maine since 1997
Joe Manchin has held his seat in virginia since 2010
2022 mid term elections evidence - Georgia senate
Warnock had the largest budget - $150M
he won and he was the incumbent
90% of black voters voted for democrat warnock
88% of evangelical christians voted for republican walker
2022 congressional elections - overral evidence
white evangelicals 83% voted republicans
black 86% - voted dems
women - 53% voted dems
men - 54% voted republicans
how can the president impact congressional elections
Cottails effect
coattails effect
This is when members of Congress benefit from a popular presidential candidate of their party in a presidential election year. During presidential election years, voters vote on the same day for president and congress. A popular presidential candidate will draw
voters of their party to the polls, increase turnout for their party’s voter coalition, and this will help the members of Congress too in their
elections.
examples of positive and negavtive coattials effects
Positive - Enthusiasm for Obama amongst black, young and female voters helped
Democratic Congressional candidates in 2008
Negative - in that candidates associated with and endorsed by Trump lost their seats in the 2022 midterm elections for example Mehmet Oz—defeated in Pennsylvania by John Fetterman.
why are mid term congressional elections seen as referendums on the president
Although during mid-term elections voters cannot vote for the president, they often express an opinion on the presidency with their votes for Congress. They will punish the
president’s party if the president is
unpopular. Thi is because voters often find something to be disappointed about, the president’s party often loses during the midterms
examples of mid terms being a referendum of the president
In 2018 the Republicans lost their majority in the House of Representatives to the Democrats; Trump’s approval rating was only 37%
In 2010 the Democrats lost their majority in the HoR; Obama’s approval rating was only 50%
In 2022 the Democrats lost majority in the HoR; Biden’s approval rating was 42%
factors affecting voting behaviour
Social background factors
Campaign budget
Candidate personality
