Comprehensive Exam 2 Flashcards
Malayan Emergency of 1948-1960
- Malayan Communist Party (MCP)
- Malaya was relatively small peninsula, MCP was small and lacked external support
- 1st 2yrs of Brit strategy was heavy handed and doomed to fail
- “Briggs Plan” emphasized “joint” integration of all civ-mil COIN efforts. Created Joint Intel Committee! Outlined a classic COIN strategy.
- “Gen Templar” after Briggs dies.
- Expands civic groups. Places greater emphasis on Psyops and info warfare. Mil and civ highly integrated. Strong admin bureacracy to support population. Highly energetic, dynamic and strategic thinker.
- Malaya was promised independence…gained in 1957.
- Templar emphasized organizational LL’s. Created pocket guides for COIN. “Rewards for Surrender” program.
Huk Rebellion
After PI indep, anti-Jap (WWII) Huk’s turned against PI Gov. Initial reaction was very harsh.
- US sends Joint US Mil Adv Group (JUSMAG)
- Lansdale and Magsaysay reform PI military. Restructured BCT’s with enablers, punished abuse, rewarded field time.
- PsyWar and SOF, covert action.
- Provided services/security to pop. Surrender program.
Tet Offensive
- 1968, approx 67k EN attacked in surprising, coordinated campaign.
- NV had integrated into SV since 1954 through “party village secretaries.”
- By mid 1967, US was gaining with deserter program and pacification programs like CAP
- Dau Tranh adopted as “the struggle” by NV
-Attack was huge tactical failure. Incurred many losses. Still, boosted EN morale and turned 1968 US election to referendum on war. Cronkite’s devastating “stalemate” rpt.
BRICs Brazil
5th largest pop, 7th largest economy.
-Org. criminal activity, corruption and narco-trafficking. 2nd largest Coke consumer. Weak borders with five countries.
-Not really a regional IR leader, no identity. Likely due to historical narrative. Weak on andean narco and 2008 Col-Ecu-Ven military standoff. Embryonic institutions.
BRICs Russia
Dominant in Central Asia, Influential in EU.
-Threatened by expansive southern border, Islamists in North Caucuses. Dangerous to energy production. Drug trafficking, migration from Afg.
Leader of Collective Security Treaty Org. Must contend with NATO and EU. China and India with rising influence. Demographic trends.
BRICs India
2nd Largest pop, 4th largest economy.
Homeland Security by Islamist terror, ongoing animosity with Pak. Border dispute with China, rising energy/econ competition.
Inward/domestic focus. Bordered by many volatile countries (Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar)
BRICs China
Largest pop
Concerned with its own regime security and Korean peninsula. Military is guarantor of party, locates PLA near maj population centers, in addition to huge armed police force. Zealous defense of claims on islands (seeks energy rich beds, long term unification with Taiwan).
Not currently a domestic leader. Focused on internal econ growth and FP is only to serve those interests.
BRICs Saudi Arabia
Primary concerned with regime and regional security. Supported Bahrain in 2011. Afraid of Iran.
Operation Vengeance: A COMINT Success
1929, US Sec State Stimson “Gntlemen don’t read other Gntlemen’s mail”
- COMINT was decisive factor in WWII
- “Magic” by USN, triangulated location, traffic analysis (units) and cryptanalysis (content). USN was strong after long-term investment in technology and Japanese SME’s.
- By 1943, over 2k ppl in FRUPAC
- Apr 1943, intercept of Adm Yamamoto travel
- Japs were “invincible,” arrogant
- Showed “COMINT hand” to Japs, poor OPSEC
- Over 4 days, US intercepted, decyrpted, translated and acted on COMINT.
- Japs didn’t win another Naval battle
HUMINT Assessment of Iraq WMDs
- US had no embassy in Iraq, temporary UN inspector presence
- Pervasive Iraqi internal intel services, Deception and Denial (D&D) strategy dissuaded espionage. Compartmentalized.
- 2002 NIE claims BW, CW
- Almost all BW info is based on curveball.
- DIA HUMINT has poor validation process, saying it was just a “conduit” for reporting
- CIA DO says he was a fabricator
- INC source, others, are also questionable
- Insufficient CW info since 95 defection
- Many IC reports list “potential…that could occur…technical feasibility”, listed as “has and will” in NIE. Nothing “highly reliable.”
- Much CW belief was based on “BW (curveball)” belief.
- NW-Aluminum tubes DOE and INR believe are for 81mm rockets.
- Yellowcake docs are forged. Niger didn’t export after confirm with CIA and Amb.
- UAV-CW/CW system post 91 is highly suspect. Only ISR.
- Mapping software purchase was accident.
- Al samoud missiles (violation) destroyed.
Issues: Agent acq and dev is very hard without official presence and D&D.
- Exiled sources are distant from truth.
- Liason services may be dishonest.
- HUMINT can be deceived/countered.
Rare Earth Elements (REE)
- Jointly (US, EU, Jpn) filed trade case against Ch
- Ch holds virtual monopoly on REE, 95% of world supply. Declining export (60%) since 09
- Ch claims Env concerns. Have used REE in dispute with Jpn (denied).
- Long term goal of moving western manufacturing plans to Ch for REE access.
Conc: US/west needs to consider more nontraditional threats, including resources for industry and national security.
Tech in Intel
- IMINT and SIGINT, limited by underground
- Rise of commercial satellites
- Internet as resource for EN, websites, planning, info, coordination, HACKING
- Rise in biometrics (challenge for HUMINT)
- Drones
Cold War
Europe in Ruins, differing view about new order.
- US had expansive NS belief, worry about communist expansion. NATO was historic reversal, borne out of fear.
- USSR had historical insecurities, invasions. Wanted respect, desire to expand. Stalin was paranoid, ruthless. Confident in long-term socialist victory.
Role of Asian conflict. Korea, VN
Reagan, belligerent rhetoric and vast defense budget. But still accommodating.
Gorbachov and “new thinking”
Realism-relative econ decline leading to fall of USSR
Liberalism-Cooperation
Cons-importance of ideas and change of norms of behavior in CCCP
