Commodities (Base Metals)

Question 1

What government action in China is key for commodities?

Answer 1

Policy easing and tightening.

Question 2

What are two key drivers of Chinese Commodity demand?

Answer 2

Infrastructure and property sales.

Question 3

What has been the average length of commodity bear markets? Duration?

Answer 3

The average fall was 53.7% and on average they last 22.6 years.

Question 4

What years did commodity bear markets occur?

Answer 4

1814-1843, 1864-1896, 1920-1933, 1951-1972, 1980-1999

Question 5

What are 5 key variables that explain more than 90% of copper price moves?

Answer 5

speculative positioning, inventories, global growth, USD, marginal cash cost.

Question 6

Copper is well correlated with EM performance?

Answer 6

Yes

Question 7

What happens to copper and EM when the Dollar is strong?

Answer 7

They underperform.

Question 8

Global Mine supply of copper is running around how many mt?

Answer 8

21mt

Question 9

If you add in SXEW then how much is total annual refined supply of copper?

Answer 9

24mt

Question 10

How much is global demand for copper?

Answer 10

24mt

Question 11

How much is Chinese demand for copper?

Answer 11

11mt

Question 12

What is the 1975-2015 growth rate of copper?

Answer 12

2.4%

Question 13

What is the CRB historic correlation to the Dollar

Answer 13

-0.68

Question 14

What is the historic key drier for lumber prices?

Answer 14

Residential construction

Question 15

Why are Chinese steel prices important for Western World steel prices?

Answer 15

A rising chinese steel price leads to lower exports which reduces supply in other markets.

A falling chinese steel prices leads to higher exports and more supply in foreign markets.

Question 16

In what year did China introduce so called supply side reform?What is it?

Answer 16

2015 was first stated and it concerns the remove of structural oversupply in many basic material producing sectors.

Question 17

How did China’s change in environmental policy impact its demand for materials like iron ore, coking coal and thermal coal?

Answer 17

Its need to reduce pollution saw its steel mills wanting to utilize higher grade iron ore and coking coal like lump and pellets.

Question 18

Primary attributes of Nickel?

Answer 18

anti-corrosive and ability to stand high temperatures

Question 19

Primary uses of Nickel?

Answer 19

80% goes to alloys like stainless steel and