Climatic impacts and global health Flashcards

Question

Answer 1

More extreme scenarios are being considered by some scientists  there is chance that global warming may enter a kind of “runaway mode.” How might such a process get underway? ‐ One of the first steps would involve forests and grasslands starting to act more as a carbon source than a sink, such as if large areas were to catch alight or die from loss of water. …Next, zones of permafrost may melt at a faster rate, releasing ever more methane from vast boglands in the Arctic. ‐ Finally, there is some doubt over the capacity of the ocean to keep acting as a sink for greenhouse gases. Seawater currently “soaks up” about half of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but if the oceans warm up, the underlying chemical reaction that helps to “capture” the gas will not work as efficiently. Any of these processes could accelerate the creation of a greenhouse world.

Answer 2

It is still difficult to precisely estimate the consequences of greenhouse gases in terms of warming or other effects ….but: * It is expected even a moderate level of warming would start melting the polar ice caps, and would contribute to a rise in sea levels and flooding &  there would also be a change in precipitation patterns and a greater frequency of extreme weather events &  geographical shifts or transformations in many ecosystems

Answer 3

* A rise in temperature has quite variable effects on rainfall = some parts of North America and Eurasia could receive slightly higher levels overall (maybe with cyclonic events and flooding?) …except locations such as the south and western US which would be drier * Parts of Australia might also experience more rainfall, although southern WA will most likely be drier

Answer 4

If this progresses…… * in Australia –the shoreline will change, and saltwater will intrude into coastal lands and aquifers + also flooding * Increases in sea temperatures will also cause a greater number and intensity of tropical cyclones – they will also occur further south. …These will cause damage (bad outcome) but may also bring increased rainfall to some areas (beneficial?)

Answer 5

* For the oceans, any increase in temperature causes water to expand (thermal expansion) and ‐ together with the loss of terrestrial glaciers and icecaps with runoff into the ocean ‐ leads to a sea level rise – It is estimated that there has been a rise of about 0.2 metre since the 1880s It is predicted that by 2050, there will be an increase of around another 0.3m from now, and some suggest much higher levels as we move beyond that date

Answer 6

In some regions (e.g. around the Pacific), a large unknown factor is the effect of ENSO, the El Niño Southern Oscillation * This cycle begins over in eastern Pacific, close to South America. The periods of the warm waters in eastern Pacific (El Niño) and periods of cooler waters (La Niña) are accompanied by changes of air pressure in the east and west Pacific = these are called the Southern Oscillation. * El Niño events occur irregularly, about every 2‐7 years. They last from 12 to 18 months. * The effects of La Niña are generally less pronounced and tend to be the opposite of those of El Niño

Answer 7

* The El Niño event begins with the weakening of the prevailing winds in the Pacific and a shift in rainfall patterns. * The events may be associated with extreme weather (towards more floods or drought) in countries surrounding the Pacific and much further afield. Prolonged dry periods may occur in South‐east Asia, Southern Africa and Northern Australia and heavy rainfall, sometimes with flooding, occurs in parts of South America.

Answer 8

DIRECT HEALTH IMPACTS FROM GREATER VARIABILITY IN WEATHER PATTERNS, including more frequent or intense extreme weather events Events such as extreme precipitation events or “rain bombs”, cyclones, severe thunderstorms and flooding all increase the likelihood of death (e.g. from drowning, structural collapse and blunt trauma) as well as causing injuries such as lacerations and fractures, with wound infections from untreated injuries and risk of tetanus

Answer 9

– there is little doubt that lower‐income countries will suffer most because they are most vulnerable to environmental disturbance ‐ the areas at particular risk are * those near coasts * on islands * near river confluences * in poor but densely populated areas * in areas already susceptible to weather extremes * in areas dependent on subsistence agriculture

Answer 10

*HEAT RELATED ILLNESS * Global climate change will drive an increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves, as well as a pattern of warmer summers and milder winters.

Answer 11

* An increase in temperature will cause a rise in heat related illness, including heat stroke – the elderly, those on lower incomes, and people with disabilities; those with other pre‐existing conditions, such as heart disease, and those in certain strenuous occupations are especially at risk * Older adults are at particular risk of heat‐related effects because of their reduced ability to thermoregulate with age and also vulnerability to dehydration. as well as because of social or behavioural factors, such being homebound or isolated with limited options to respond to or escape the effect of heatwaves.

Answer 12

* Because of the “urban heat island effect” ‐ in which urban areas can generate and store more heat than nearby rural areas ‐ individuals living in cities may often have an elevated risk of death when temperature and humidity is high compared to those living in less densely populated areas * In cities, stagnant weather conditions can trap both unusually warm air in combination with high levels of air pollutants  leading to serious smog episodes which can have a significant impact on cardio‐respiratory health

Answer 13

HEALTH CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE – INDIRECT EFFECTS

Answer 14

 Where sanitation and water availability may already be marginal, climate can make a major difference.  For example, in the Philippines, higher temperatures have been linked to an increase in diarrhoea outbreaks, especially among children

Answer 15

 Increasing average temperatures would allow range expansion for many species linked to infectious disease.  It is anticipated that certain imported mosquitoes and other vectors such as ticks would broaden their range to higher latitudes and higher altitudes.  For some species ‐ including Aedes mosquitoes that carry dengue fever, Zika virus, chikungunya and yellow fever ‐ breeding times are also shorter at higher temperatures

Answer 16

 Increasing average rainfall will also allow range expansion for many species  A number of insects, particularly mosquitoes, would benefit from this trend.  Disease patterns in Australia and the Pacific Islands indicate that the heavy summer falls are associated with breeding of Aedes and Culex, which have been linked to increased rates of infections such as Ross River virus and dengue fever

Answer 17

*FOOD PRODUCTION * Many crops are temperature sensitive – some areas may experience increased production (e.g. Canada/Siberia, although the soil in some of these regions is not highly fertile) …BUT many other communities would have to seek alternative crop or different planting methods ‐ Many crops in the tropical zones are in fact at around their optimal growing temperature now – grain yields will tend to decline if we shift too far from the current level ‐ while at the same time many weed species will do better with more heat, as will a wider range of plant pests, including destructive insects and fungi  The overall global impact on food production is negative, with lower‐income communities being the most vulnerable to declines in yields

Answer 18

* The likelihood and persistence of drought will increase with temperature it is predicted that: ‐ at 2 degrees of warming = northern India and most of the countries around the Mediterranean affected ‐ at 3 degrees of warming = by this stage, global calorie production based on current range of crops would be less than global demand, as Central America, western US and Pakistan affected – as well as most of Australia …at 5 degrees of warming = wide “drought‐belts” around the planet affecting many regions, possibly annually – including many parts of China, Europe, Middle East, as well as many densely populated regions in Africa and South America

Answer 19

* ASTHMA AND OTHER RESPIRATORY DISEASES ‐ likely to become more common with greenhouse conditions because  more rain /heat = more pollen from plant growth and increase in fungal spores ‐‐> aeroallergens contribute to allergies and asthma WHEREAS ‐ In parts of the world where there is a drying trend = more aridity + more dust = also more asthma ALSO increased photochemical reactions that produce ozone = asthma

Answer 20

* RISKS FROM MAJOR FIRE EVENTS * Climate scientists have found that climate change now plays a key role in exacerbating the risk of bushfires * Note that risk of fire is also influenced by other factors, including presence of fuels, land management practices, existing fire prevention strategies, and geography * In major fires, radiant heat obviously poses a direct and dangerous threat with risk of death or burn injuries. * Other well ‐recognised health risks from major fires include dehydration, heat exhaustion, direct respiratory tract burns, and severe respiratory tract injury from smoke inhalation. * Large bushfires can produce sustained periods of haze and particulate air pollution contribute to associated cardiorespiratory morbidity and mortality * It is well ‐established that major bushfire events are linked to spikes in hospital admissions and emergency department contacts for exacerbations of asthma

Answer 21

 Vector and pathogen habitats are also influenced by any increases in the frequency of extreme climatic events.  For example, floods are linked to the spread of vector‐borne and water‐borne diseases.  Sustained droughts comprise water supplies and sanitation systems.

Answer 22

Climate affects most aspects of food production in some way, such as the types of crops selected, the regions used for farming, average production, how the affected land is managed, input costs, and prices of food products The loss of harvests and livestock poses one of the greatest threats to human health from climate change Increased rates of climate‐related hunger and malnutrition across many regions of the globe

Answer 23

*DECREASED WATER SECURITY * The many problems that we have already discussed relating to water may be exacerbated, particularly in areas vulnerable to aridity as a result of climate change * Water ‐borne diseases are influenced by water temperature and the frequency and intensity of rain and flooding events. E.g. flooding may result in sewage or farm run ‐off entering drinking ‐water supplies, leading to outbreaks of infectious diseases such as cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis …while droughts may increase concentrations of some pathogens in water * These climate ‐related effects may overwhelm disinfection and purification processes in water treatment plants.

Answer 24

*SEA LEVEL RISE * The sea level rise is of major importance given that around 60% of the world’s population lives near the coast many of these areas are susceptible to storm surges and flooding  it is expected that arable land could be affected by erosion and salinisation – also salinisation of freshwater aquifers + disruption of often marginal sanitation e.g. Bangladesh + Egypt with large delta farming population

Answer 25

* Island habitats are particularly vulnerable to probable consequences of global warming, such as rising sea levels  The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) has indicated that small islands are vulnerable to increasing amplitudes and frequencies of high tides, greater wave damage and intrusion of salt water into the islands underground reserves of freshwater. * Atolls, such as the Maldives and Kiribati, are at particular risk from even small changes in sea level * Many low‐lying states may partially disappear, eroding terrestrial habitats and triggering further competition for use of the remaining land.

Answer 26

*REFUGEE CRISES * The impacts of flooding, sea‐level rise and other climate change impacts (declines in food production) is predicted to culminate in an era of mass migration The World Bank predicts at least 140 million people from parts of South Asia, Africa and Latin America will be displaced by 2050 …while the United Nations has given an global estimate of more like 200 million ‘climate refugees’ by 2050 ‐ in fact, a figure of around 1 billion is within the UN’s possible range, although these higher figures are contested

Answer 27

* MENTAL HEALTH IMPACTS * Emotional reactions to extreme events, such as post‐traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression and anxiety ..but we must also consider the pervasive effects of “environmental grief,” in the face of the climate crisis

Answer 28

* Warming and drying trends in some regions – or conversely, greater flood risk ‐ will result in a higher prevalence of mental health problems * In rural areas it is predicted that prolonged drought and reduced farm yields in the long‐term will result in a rise in stress, depression and average suicide rate * Climate change may exacerbate the challenges and inequities already experienced by regional communities  this will further increase the demand for already scarce social support and mental health services

Answer 29

 There is also distancing of the consequences of our actions across time. The emphasis on short time horizons means that we continue to pollute and use resources Need to aim for equity amongst nations, societies and communities BUT ALSO between generations I.E. intergenerational equity = “Each generation has the right to inherit the same diversity in natural and cultural resources enjoyed by previous generations and to equitable access to the use and benefits of these resources.”

Answer 30

RESPONSES TO THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE Broadly the options are: Complete denial  Partial or full acceptance BUT ignore for now/”Business as usual” Mitigation Adaptation Combination of Mitigation + Adaptation >>often seen as the preferred option

Answer 31

Usually takes the form of Refuting that significant climate change is occurring at all or Accepting the process is occurring but refuting that humans have any role in contributing to these changes

Answer 32

* “Let’s stop it happening in the first place” * The IPCC formally defines mitigation in this context as: “An anthropogenic (human‐driven) intervention to reduce the anthropogenic forcing of the climate system  it includes strategies to reduce greenhouse gas sources and emissions and enhancing greenhouse gas sinks” (that act to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere)

Answer 33

‐ This is a planning option advocated by many  particularly those who think the evidence is not compelling OR that the issue is not sufficiently important to warrant serious attention ‐ This “inaction” option will continue to be considered for as long as scientific uncertainty remains ………and maybe for long after because there are major political and economic barriers to intervention

Answer 34

* Ratification and enforcement of international protocols is essential, including global implementation of carbon reduction schemes ……BUT for countries such as Australia = large energy sector thus arguments are made for compensation or concessions because of adverse economic impacts …also the local availability of coal and its comparatively low cost ensure that this fossil fuel will be needed for the foreseeable future. Coal is driving Asia’s societal development, and by 2030, coal will still generate three‐quarters of the globe’s electricity supply

Answer 35

essentially to avoid significant human interference with Earth's climate – and its direct and indirect consequences ‐ by stabilizing greenhouse gas levels

Answer 36

* “Let’s prepare and try to protect ourselves against it” * The IPCC formally defines adaptation in this context as: “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.”  essentially, we take steps to reduce our vulnerability to potentially damaging impacts …Various terms used in relation to adaptation, including: *Anticipatory adaptation – Adaptation that takes place before impacts of climate change are observed (Also known as proactive adaptation). *Planned adaptation – Adaptation that is the result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an awareness that conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to, maintain, or achieve a desired state.

Answer 37

This usually includes taking steps to curb or stop the production of greenhouse gases – that is, setting and enforcing emissions targets and use of various emissions reduction programs and strategies, such as cutting our reliance on emissions‐ intensive sources of energy BUT It must also be acknowledged that there is no way to lower the level of carbon dioxide, methane, and NOx without major social or economic impact……

Answer 38

* Some possible options that have been proposed include: ‐ Energy efficient homes and workplaces ‐ Shift to renewables ‐ solar/ wind / water power (e.g. hydro and tidal) NB Although the pace of innovation is accelerating, it is unlikely that the majority of global energy needs will eventually be supplied from the renewable sources, although some individual nations may achieve much higher proportions of usage. ‐ Reduce fossil fuel use (eg on a per capita basis, Australians use 4x vehicle fuel used in Japan) ‐ Increase use of nuclear energy (but has other consequences)

Answer 39

* To prepare for and try to avert the health impacts of climate change, we need to assess the degree to which communities (or their resources) have been or could be threatened by weather‐related events that significantly deviate from the usual pattern. To fully define who is ‘vulnerable’ in this respect, it is necessary to consider both the likelihood of the event occurring in a particular place, and the capacity of the affected society to counter such a threat.

Answer 40

to adjust to life in a changing climate (either actual climate now or expected in the future) ‐ such as by altering our systems, behaviours, economies, environments or even ways of life – in order to reduce our risks from the adverse climate impacts, such as extreme weather events or loss of food and water resources …and/or (in some cases) to capitalise on any potential benefits associated with climate change (for example, expanding range of crops in regions once too cold for cultivation).

Answer 41

Preparations for the impacts of climate change might include: ‐ New measures to control infectious disease, such as strategies to control vector‐borne disease…or we could try to broaden immunisation programs ‐ Change crops and other food sources to suit emerging climate ‐ Changes in patterns of building around coasts and rivers ‐ protective structures ‐ Planned migrations from coastal or low‐lying areas …. But where will the tens of millions of refugees estimated from low‐lying countries such as Bangladesh go…?

Answer 42

‐ 2015: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Paris meeting ‐ 2021: 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), Glasgow * Attendees at the 2015 meeting agreed with the objective of keeping temperature changes well below 2°C above pre‐ industrial levels…with efforts to keep the level below 1.5°C  187 of the 195 attendees at the time pledged to make “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs) to lower emissions * There were commitments to a $100 billion per year fund to support adaptation to climate change in developing nations

Answer 43

ISSUES: There is no doubt that these meetings have been important achievements in terms of getting people to discuss and define the threats and explore possible solutions. BUT *the goal is very unlikely to be achieved unless much more is done to reduce carbon emissions the 2015 pledges will lead to global warming of ~2.7°C IE need major expansion of the basic initiatives discussed in Paris *there were no legally binding agreements in the 2015 (although the disastrous 2009 Copenhagen meeting showed that this was difficult to achieve) *need to consider if governments in emerging economies going to be able to tell their citizens that their rise from poverty and economic development will be restricted or delayed? (e.g. India generates over 70% of its electricity from coal)

Answer 44

* HOWEVER…on a more optimistic note: ‐ it is hoped that this figure of 1.5°C will provide a clear target to focus the attention of policy‐makers in the future and will galvanise governments to make more decisive interventions (ratchet effect)… global progress will also be reassessed at regular intervals ‐ may become easier with technological advances and rise in low‐carbon energy options (but only if costs for renewables per unit energy production falls substantially at a global level)  At best, the Paris and Glasgow meetings may perhaps be viewed as early steps or markers in the process of international cooperation – much more work lies ahead

Climatic impacts and global health Flashcards

(79 cards)