Climatic impacts and global health

Question 1

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
ON HEALTH

Answer 1

Specific learning outcomes
On completion of this topic,
you should be able to:
* Outline in general terms the
scientific explanations used to
account for anthropogenic
climate change
* Discuss how climate change
may directly or indirectly
impact on health and
wellbeing

Answer 2

• The process of climate change/global
  warming is linked to the “greenhouse
  effect.”
  … before we can explore this
  phenomenon, we need to ask what
  regulates the Earth’s temperature
  when there is no human
  intervention.
  After all, we know that the Earth has
  been plunged into Ice Ages and then
  warmed considerably – what has been
  going on to create these climatic
  extremes?

Question 2

a. CONCEPTS AND SCIENTIFIC FOUNDATIONS OF “CLIMATE
CHANGE”

Answer 2

• According to the Intergovernmental
  Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
  “climate change” is a
  “change in the state of the climate that
  can be identified (e.g., by using
  statistical tests) by changes in the mean
  [average] and/or the variability of its
  properties and that persists for an
  extended period, typically decades or
  longer.”
  …This may be due to
  “natural processes” or to
  “persistent anthropogenic [human‐
  driven] changes in the composition of
  the atmosphere or in land use.”

Answer 3

• The global factors refer to
  the complex
  interrelationship between
  the atmosphere,
  hydrosphere and the
  biosphere.
  For example, volcanic emissions release large
  amounts of sulphur dioxide and particulate
  matter – this may result in global cooling as
  occurred after Mount Pinatubo in 1991.

Answer 3

Answer 3

• Carbon dioxide is also the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas with an annual release of over 7
  gigatonnes
   it constitutes > 2/3 of what is termed ‘radiative forcing’ = degree to which infrared radiation is absorbed
  by greenhouse gases and re‐emitted, thus warming the atmosphere
  BUT the RATE of change of carbon dioxide is far faster than is usual for natural geological processes, and the
  AMOUNT of carbon dioxide is greater than we have experienced in recent geological time

Answer 4

• The rise has been detected from the late 1950s – now CO2 stands at about 30% greater than
  existed in pre‐industrial times.
  …this rise largely appears related to fossil fuel use (slight dip in the 1970s during the fuel crisis)
   Carbon dioxide has a residence time in the atmosphere of up to 200 years

Answer 4

Even when there is no human intervention (and
long before there were people on the Earth), ,
water vapour and carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere exert some greenhouse effect
…….In fact, these “natural” greenhouse gases are
important – our planet would be 33 deg C
cooler without them, and the profusion of life
with which we are familiar would be quite
restricted.
* For our hostile near neighbour,
the planet Venus, the process of greenhouse
heating has spiralled out of control: the Venusian
atmosphere contains more than 95% carbon
dioxide (compared to a fraction of one per cent on
Earth),
and ‐ although the planet may at one time have
supported oceans of water ‐ these days the
surface temperatures can hit 460°C.

Answer 5

Answer 6

• The pre‐industrial levels of carbon
  dioxide were about 280 parts per
  million (shortened to “ppm”)…we are
  around 400 ppm and climbing.
• Historically, atmospheric carbon
  dioxide at these levels has not been
  seen for at least 800 000 years (based
  on Antarctic ice core analysis), and
  probably not even for the last 2.1
  million years (based on the shells of
  plankton in marine deposits).
• Despite the temperature fluctuations
  over these hundreds of thousands of
  years – which saw ice ages come and
  go ‐ the carbon dioxide levels
  remained at a remarkably stable
  setting between 180ppm (at
  maximum glaciation) and 300 ppm
  (when the glacial periods had
  passed).

Answer 7

 Apart from CO2, other
greenhouse gases include
methane and nitrous oxide in the
troposphere; and CFCs
(chlorofluorocarbons))in the
stratosphere
 all these gases are highly
effective at absorbing infrared
radiation, so they are effective
at trapping heat.
‐ CFCs have an effect out of
proportion to their tiny
quantities because they absorb
certain infrared frequencies not
captured by the other gases

Answer 8

‐ this potential to trap heat is called the GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL or GWP of these gases – essentially, all
gases are compared to carbon dioxide as a baseline in terms of their ability to induce global warming.
= methane per unit weight is 24 times better than carbon dioxide at inducing global warming
…while CFCs per unit weight are ~5 000‐10 000 times better …CFCs persist for many decades in the atmosphere, so
their contribution will be with us some time yet.

Answer 9

• When considering the fate and cycling of greenhouse gases, we can consider the sources and
  sinks of these gases
  = sinks are sites or processes by which the gas is removed
  & the rate of movement between the source and sink is called the flux

Answer 10

Answer 11

• Major sources of carbon
  dioxide are burning of fossil
  fuels
  and to lesser degree
  deforestation (though burning
  and decomposition) and land‐
  use change.
  The sinks are the ocean (e.g.
  forms basis of shells and
  skeletons of aquatic animals ‐
  eventually limestone) and
  plants in photosynthesis –
  especially when there is forest
  regrowth

Answer 12

Deforestation has
a “double whammy” effect
in relation to generating carbon dioxide
…Removal of this vegetation
= creates more carbon dioxide as it burns and
decomposes
AND also the loss of these plants removes an
important sink

Answer 13

• Major sources of methane =
  produced by fermentation I.E. where
  no oxygen (anaerobic condition) –
  produced in marshes, ponds, paddy
  fields and from the gastrointestinal
  tracts of ruminants, such as cattle
  – thus humans contribute to this by
  large areas of irrigation in rice
  production
  AND large numbers of farm animals –
  …also termites produce a fair bit of methane,
  and the volume and number of termite
  mounds increase after deforestation.
• Methane is also stored in tundra –
  there is a suggestion that in regions
  such as Siberia could be produced in
  massive quantities if the permafrost
  (permanently frozen layer on or
  under Earth’s surface) thaws as a
  result of global warming

Answer 14

There has also been some
counteractive effect from
dust and soot in the
atmosphere, which stops
the Sun’s energy from
hitting the surface of the
planet
BUT
overall even this has not
overcome the greenhouse
effect

Question 14

b. ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES OF GREENHOUSE
EMISSIONS

Answer 14

• A wide range of
  evidence suggests that
  the addition of
  greenhouse gases into
  the atmosphere will
  eventually lead (and
  may have already
  contributed) to some
  level of climate
  change/global
  warming.

Answer 15

The main scientific issues relating to
climate change/global warming are
as follows:
‐ what is the magnitude of the
change/warming? ‐ will it substantially
disrupt our livelihoods and ecologies?
‐ over what time scale will it occur? ‐ is
it here now, or will we see it in a
generation or two?

Answer 15

• This estimated effect of carbon dioxide on the atmosphere was formally
  calculated back in the 1890s, when Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius
  worked out that if you double the concentration of CO2 in the
  atmosphere, the global temperature will increase by around 5 degree
  Celsius
  … It took him around two years to complete this calculation by hand.
   so in fact we have known about CO2, industrial activity and the risk of a
  warming planet since at least 1896…
• The current best estimate is around +3 degrees C increase with CO2
  doubling …but Arrhenius’ original +5 degrees C in fact remains in the
  range of possible values

Answer 16

• There are
  a number of
  models used to predict the
  outcome of global warming
  –
  these are called GLOBAL
  CIRCULATION (or CLIMATE)
  MODELS or GCMs
  
  A common mid
  ‐range
  estimate is that we might
  expect an average rise in
  surface temperature of
  between
  1 and 3.5 degC
  during the course of the
  21st century, if carbon
  dioxide and other emissions
  are not substantially
  reduced.

Answer 16

• Of course, the great majority of scientists argue that the evidence is there already
  ‐‐> Since 1880, there does appear to be an increase in average global temperatures of about 1.1 degrees
  Centigrade ‐ with much of this occurring since the mid‐20th century.
  This estimate incorporates averages across day and night as well as seasonal fluctuations. The rate of warming
  has been more noticeable in the Northern Hemisphere (especially the Arctic)
  BUT does this represent a “true” warming trend…or just “natural variation”?

Answer 17

• Significant temperature fluctuations
  have occurred in the past 1000 years,
  such as the Medieval Warm Period
  (from around 900‐1300AD), which
  was followed by the Little Ice Age
  (which in fact comprised three cooling
  events ranging from around 1350 ‐
  1850AD).
• The cause of these trends is
  uncertain, and have been variously
  attributed to astronomical influences
  (fluctuations in solar activity), natural
  aberrations (a disturbance in the
  North Atlantic Ocean systems and the
  Gulf Stream), and even human factors
  (the massive mortality from the Black
  Death leading to the return of forests
  and their increased uptake of carbon
  dioxide).
  ….However, even during the Medieval Warm
  Period, the temperature probably never rose
  to the levels that the Northern Hemisphere
  has been experiencing in the past two
  decades.

Answer 18

More extreme scenarios are being considered by some scientists 
there is chance that global warming may enter a kind of “runaway
mode.”
How might such a process get underway?
‐ One of the first steps would involve forests and grasslands starting to act
more as a carbon source than a sink, such as if large areas were to catch
alight or die from loss of water.
…Next, zones of permafrost may melt at a faster rate, releasing ever more
methane from vast boglands in the Arctic.
‐ Finally, there is some doubt over the capacity of the ocean to keep acting
as a sink for greenhouse gases. Seawater currently “soaks up” about half
of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but if the oceans warm up, the
underlying chemical reaction that helps to “capture” the gas will not work
as efficiently.
Any of these processes could accelerate the creation of a
greenhouse world.

Answer 19

It is still difficult to precisely estimate
the consequences of greenhouse gases
in terms of warming or other effects
….but:
* It is expected even a moderate level
of warming would start melting the
polar ice caps, and would contribute
to a rise in sea levels and flooding
&
 there would also be a change in
precipitation patterns and a greater
frequency of extreme weather
events
&
 geographical shifts or
transformations in many ecosystems

Answer 20

• A rise in temperature has quite variable effects on rainfall
  = some parts of North America and Eurasia could receive slightly higher levels overall (maybe with cyclonic events
  and flooding?) …except locations such as the south and western US which would be drier
• Parts of Australia might also experience more rainfall, although southern WA will most likely be drier

Answer 21

If this progresses……
* in Australia –the shoreline will
change, and saltwater will
intrude into coastal lands and
aquifers + also flooding
* Increases in sea temperatures
will also cause a greater
number and intensity of
tropical cyclones
– they will also occur further
south.
…These will cause damage (bad
outcome) but may also bring
increased rainfall to some
areas (beneficial?)

Answer 21

Answer 21

• For the oceans,
  any increase in temperature causes
  water to expand (thermal expansion)
  and
  ‐ together with the loss of terrestrial
  glaciers and icecaps with runoff into
  the ocean ‐
  leads to a sea level rise
  – It is estimated that there has been a
  rise of about 0.2 metre since the
  1880s
  It is predicted that by 2050, there
  will be an increase of around
  another 0.3m from now,
  and some suggest much higher levels
  as we move beyond that date

Answer 21

In some regions (e.g. around the
Pacific), a large unknown factor
is the effect of ENSO, the El
Niño Southern Oscillation
* This cycle begins over in eastern Pacific,
close to South America.
The periods of the warm waters in eastern
Pacific (El Niño) and periods of cooler waters
(La Niña) are accompanied by changes of air
pressure in the east and west Pacific
= these are called the Southern Oscillation.
* El Niño events occur irregularly, about every
2‐7 years. They last from 12 to 18 months.
* The effects of La Niña are generally less
pronounced and tend to be the opposite of
those of El Niño

Answer 21

• The El Niño event begins
  with the weakening of the
  prevailing winds in the
  Pacific and a shift in
  rainfall patterns.
• The events may be associated
  with extreme weather (towards
  more floods or drought) in
  countries surrounding the
  Pacific and much further afield.
  Prolonged dry periods may
  occur in South‐east Asia,
  Southern Africa and Northern
  Australia
  and
  heavy rainfall, sometimes with
  flooding, occurs in parts of South
  America.

Question 22

c. HEALTH CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE
CHANGE

Answer 22

Answer 22

Answer 23

Answer 24

Question 25

HEALTH CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE – DIRECT EFFECTS

Answer 25

DIRECT HEALTH IMPACTS
FROM GREATER VARIABILITY
IN WEATHER PATTERNS,
including more frequent or
intense extreme weather
events
Events such as extreme precipitation events
or “rain bombs”, cyclones, severe thunderstorms and flooding
all increase the likelihood of death (e.g. from drowning, structural collapse and blunt trauma)
as well as causing injuries such as lacerations and fractures,
with wound infections from untreated
injuries and risk of tetanus

Answer 26

– there is little doubt that lower‐income countries will suffer most
because they are most vulnerable to environmental disturbance
‐ the areas at particular risk are
* those near coasts
* on islands
* near river confluences
* in poor but densely populated areas
* in areas already susceptible to weather extremes
* in areas dependent on subsistence agriculture

Answer 27

*HEAT RELATED ILLNESS
* Global climate change will drive
an increased frequency and
intensity of heatwaves,
as well as
a pattern of warmer summers and
milder winters.

Answer 28

Answer 29

• An increase in temperature will cause a rise in heat related illness, including heat stroke – the elderly, those on lower incomes,
  and people with disabilities; those with other pre‐existing conditions, such as heart disease, and those in certain strenuous
  occupations are especially at risk
• Older adults are at particular risk of heat‐related effects because of their reduced ability to thermoregulate with age and also
  vulnerability to dehydration. as well as because of social or behavioural factors, such being homebound or isolated with
  limited options to respond to or escape the effect of heatwaves.

Answer 30

• Because of the “urban heat island effect” ‐ in which urban areas can generate
  and store more heat than nearby rural areas ‐ individuals living in cities may often
  have an elevated risk of death when temperature and humidity is high compared
  to those living in less densely populated areas
• In cities, stagnant weather conditions can trap both unusually warm air in
  combination with high levels of air pollutants  leading to serious smog
  episodes which can have a significant impact on cardio‐respiratory health

Answer 31

HEALTH CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
– INDIRECT EFFECTS

Answer 32

Answer 33

 Where sanitation and water
availability may already be
marginal, climate can make
a
major difference.
 For example, in the Philippines,
higher temperatures have been
linked to an increase in
diarrhoea outbreaks, especially
among children

Answer 33

 Increasing average temperatures would allow range expansion for many
species linked to infectious disease.
 It is anticipated that certain imported mosquitoes and other vectors such
as ticks would broaden their range to higher latitudes and higher altitudes.
 For some species ‐ including Aedes mosquitoes that carry dengue fever,
Zika virus, chikungunya and yellow fever ‐ breeding times are also shorter
at higher temperatures

Answer 34

 Increasing average rainfall will
also allow range expansion for
many species
 A number of insects,
particularly mosquitoes, would
benefit from this trend.
 Disease patterns in Australia
and the Pacific Islands indicate
that the heavy summer falls
are associated with breeding of
Aedes and Culex, which have
been linked to increased rates
of infections such as Ross River
virus and dengue fever

Answer 35

*FOOD PRODUCTION
* Many crops are temperature sensitive – some
areas may experience increased production (e.g.
Canada/Siberia, although the soil in some of
these regions is not highly fertile)
…BUT many other communities would have to seek
alternative crop or different planting methods
‐ Many crops in the tropical zones are in fact at
around their optimal growing temperature now
– grain yields will tend to decline if we shift too
far from the current level
‐ while at the same time many weed species will do
better with more heat, as will a wider range of
plant pests, including destructive insects and
fungi
 The overall global impact on food production
is negative, with lower‐income communities
being the most vulnerable to declines in yields

Answer 35

• The likelihood and persistence of drought will increase with temperature
  it is predicted that:
  ‐ at 2 degrees of warming = northern India and most of the countries around the Mediterranean affected
  ‐ at 3 degrees of warming = by this stage, global calorie production based on current range of crops would be less than global
  demand, as Central America, western US and Pakistan affected – as well as most of Australia
  …at 5 degrees of warming = wide “drought‐belts” around the planet affecting many regions, possibly annually – including many
  parts of China, Europe, Middle East, as well as many densely populated regions in Africa and South America

Answer 35

• ASTHMA AND OTHER
  RESPIRATORY
  DISEASES
  ‐ likely to become more common with
  greenhouse conditions because
   more rain /heat = more pollen from
  plant growth and increase in fungal
  spores
  ‐‐> aeroallergens contribute to allergies and
  asthma
  WHEREAS
  ‐ In parts of the world where there is a
  drying trend = more aridity + more dust
  = also more asthma
  ALSO increased photochemical reactions
  that produce ozone = asthma

Answer 35

• RISKS FROM MAJOR FIRE EVENTS
• Climate scientists have found that
  climate change now plays
  a key role in
  exacerbating the risk of bushfires
• Note that risk of fire is also influenced
  by other factors, including presence of
  fuels, land management practices,
  existing fire prevention strategies, and
  geography
• In major fires, radiant heat obviously
  poses
  a direct and dangerous threat
  with risk of death or burn injuries.
• Other well
  ‐recognised health risks from
  major fires include dehydration, heat
  exhaustion, direct respiratory tract
  burns, and severe respiratory tract
  injury from smoke inhalation.
• Large bushfires can produce
  sustained periods of haze and
  particulate air pollution
  contribute to associated
  cardiorespiratory morbidity and
  mortality
• It is well
  ‐established that major
  bushfire events are linked to spikes
  in hospital admissions and
  emergency department contacts for
  exacerbations of asthma

Answer 35

 Vector and pathogen habitats are also influenced by any increases in the
frequency of extreme climatic events.
 For example, floods are linked to the spread of vector‐borne and water‐borne
diseases.
 Sustained droughts comprise water supplies and sanitation systems.

Answer 35

Answer 35

Climate affects most aspects of food production in some way, such as the types of crops
selected, the regions used for farming, average production, how the affected land is managed,
input costs, and prices of food products
The loss of harvests and livestock poses one of the greatest threats to human health from
climate change
Increased rates of climate‐related hunger and malnutrition across many regions of the globe

Answer 36

*DECREASED WATER SECURITY
* The many problems that we have already discussed relating to water
may be exacerbated,
particularly in areas vulnerable to aridity as
a result of climate change
* Water
‐borne diseases are influenced
by water temperature
and the frequency and intensity of rain and flooding events.
E.g. flooding may result in sewage or farm run
‐off entering drinking
‐water
supplies, leading to outbreaks of infectious diseases such as
cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis
…while droughts may increase concentrations of some pathogens in water
* These climate
‐related effects may overwhelm disinfection and
purification processes in water treatment plants.

Answer 37

*SEA LEVEL RISE
* The sea level rise is of major
importance given that around
60% of the world’s population
lives near the coast
many of these areas are
susceptible to storm surges and
flooding  it is expected that
arable land could be affected by
erosion and salinisation
– also salinisation of freshwater
aquifers + disruption of often
marginal sanitation e.g.
Bangladesh + Egypt with large
delta farming population

Answer 38

• Island habitats are particularly vulnerable to probable consequences of
  global warming, such as rising sea levels
   The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) has indicated that small islands
  are vulnerable to increasing amplitudes and frequencies of high tides, greater wave
  damage and intrusion of salt water into the islands underground reserves of
  freshwater.
• Atolls, such as the Maldives and Kiribati, are at particular risk from even
  small changes in sea level
• Many low‐lying states may partially disappear, eroding terrestrial
  habitats and triggering further competition for use of the remaining
  land.

Answer 38

*REFUGEE CRISES
* The impacts of flooding, sea‐level
rise and other climate change
impacts (declines in food
production) is predicted to
culminate in an era of mass
migration
The World Bank predicts at least 140
million people from parts of South Asia,
Africa and Latin America will be displaced
by 2050
…while the United Nations has given an
global estimate of more like 200 million
‘climate refugees’ by 2050
‐ in fact, a figure of around 1 billion is within
the UN’s possible range, although these
higher figures are contested

Answer 39

• MENTAL HEALTH IMPACTS
• Emotional reactions to extreme events, such as post‐traumatic stress
  disorder (PTSD), depression and anxiety
  ..but we must also consider the pervasive effects of “environmental grief,” in
  the face of the climate crisis

Answer 39

Answer 39

• Warming and drying trends in some regions – or conversely, greater flood risk ‐ will result in a higher prevalence of mental health problems
• In rural areas it is predicted that prolonged drought and reduced farm yields in the long‐term will result in a rise in stress, depression and average suicide rate
• Climate change may exacerbate the challenges and inequities already experienced by regional communities  this will further increase the demand for already
  scarce social support and mental health services

Answer 40

Answer 40

 There is also distancing of the consequences of our actions across time.
The emphasis on short time horizons means that we continue to pollute and use resources
Need to aim for equity amongst nations, societies and communities BUT ALSO between generations I.E.
intergenerational equity
= “Each generation has the right to inherit the same diversity in natural and cultural resources enjoyed by previous
generations
and to equitable access to the use and benefits of these resources.”

Answer 40

RESPONSES TO THE THREAT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
Broadly the options are:
Complete denial
 Partial or full acceptance BUT ignore for
now/”Business as usual”
Mitigation
Adaptation
Combination of Mitigation + Adaptation
»often seen as the preferred option

Question 41

1. DENY THE PROBLEM

Answer 41

Usually takes the form of
Refuting that significant climate
change is occurring at all
or
Accepting the process is occurring
but refuting that humans have any
role in contributing to these
changes

Question 42

3. MITIGATION

Answer 42

• “Let’s stop it happening in the first place”
• The IPCC formally defines mitigation in this context as:
  “An anthropogenic (human‐driven) intervention to reduce the
  anthropogenic forcing of the climate system
   it includes strategies to reduce greenhouse gas sources and
  emissions
  and enhancing greenhouse gas sinks” (that act to remove greenhouse
  gases from the atmosphere)

Question 43

2. ACKNOWLEDGE BUT
   IGNORE THE PROBLEM

Answer 43

‐ This is a planning option
advocated by many 
particularly those who think the
evidence is not compelling
OR that the issue is not sufficiently
important to warrant serious
attention
‐ This “inaction” option will
continue to be considered for as
long as scientific uncertainty
remains ………and maybe for long
after because there are major
political and economic barriers to
intervention

Answer 44

• Ratification and enforcement of
  international protocols is essential,
  including global implementation of carbon
  reduction schemes
  ……BUT
  for countries such as Australia = large energy sector
  thus arguments are made for compensation or
  concessions because of adverse economic impacts
  …also the local availability of coal and its
  comparatively low cost ensure that this fossil fuel
  will be needed for the foreseeable future. Coal is
  driving Asia’s societal development, and by 2030,
  coal will still generate three‐quarters of the globe’s
  electricity supply

Question 44

• What is the goal of mitigation?

Answer 44

essentially to avoid significant human interference with Earth’s climate –
and its direct and indirect consequences ‐ by stabilizing greenhouse gas
levels

Question 44

4. ADAPTATION

Answer 44

• “Let’s prepare and try to protect ourselves against it”
• The IPCC formally defines adaptation in this context as:
  “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or
  their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.”
   essentially, we take steps to reduce our vulnerability to potentially damaging impacts
  …Various terms used in relation to adaptation, including:
  *Anticipatory adaptation – Adaptation that takes place before impacts of climate change are observed (Also
  known as proactive adaptation).
  *Planned adaptation – Adaptation that is the result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an awareness that
  conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to, maintain, or achieve a
  desired state.

Answer 44

This usually includes taking
steps to curb or stop the
production of greenhouse
gases – that is,
setting and enforcing
emissions targets
and use of various
emissions reduction
programs and strategies,
such as cutting our
reliance on emissions‐
intensive sources of
energy
BUT
It must also be
acknowledged that there
is no way to lower the
level of carbon dioxide,
methane, and NOx
without major social or
economic impact……

Answer 45

• Some possible options that have been proposed include:
  ‐ Energy efficient homes and workplaces
  ‐ Shift to renewables ‐ solar/ wind / water power (e.g. hydro and tidal)
  NB Although the pace of innovation is accelerating, it is unlikely that the majority of global energy needs will eventually
  be supplied from the renewable sources, although some individual nations may achieve much higher proportions of
  usage.
  ‐ Reduce fossil fuel use (eg on a per capita basis, Australians use 4x vehicle fuel used in Japan)
  ‐ Increase use of nuclear energy (but has other consequences)

Answer 46

• To prepare for and try to avert
  the health impacts of climate
  change, we need to assess the
  degree to which communities
  (or their resources) have been
  or could be threatened by
  weather‐related events that
  significantly deviate from the
  usual pattern.
  To fully define who is
  ‘vulnerable’ in this respect, it is
  necessary to consider both the
  likelihood of the event occurring
  in a particular place,
  and the capacity of the affected
  society to counter such a threat.

Question 46

• What is the goal of adaptation?

Answer 46

to adjust to life in a changing climate (either actual climate now or expected in the future) ‐ such as by altering our systems,
behaviours, economies, environments or even ways of life –
in order to reduce our risks from the adverse climate impacts, such as extreme weather events or loss of food and water
resources
…and/or (in some cases) to capitalise on any potential benefits associated with climate change (for example, expanding range
of crops in regions once too cold for cultivation).

Answer 46

Preparations for the impacts of
climate change might include:
‐ New measures to control infectious
disease, such as strategies to control
vector‐borne disease…or we could try
to broaden immunisation programs
‐ Change crops and other food sources
to suit emerging climate
‐ Changes in patterns of building
around coasts and rivers ‐ protective
structures
‐ Planned migrations from coastal or
low‐lying areas …. But where will the
tens of millions of refugees estimated
from low‐lying countries such as
Bangladesh go…?

Question 46

RECENT INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE MEETINGS:

Answer 46

‐ 2015: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Paris meeting
‐ 2021: 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), Glasgow
* Attendees at the 2015 meeting agreed
with the objective of keeping temperature
changes well below 2°C above pre‐
industrial levels…with efforts to keep the
level below 1.5°C
 187 of the 195 attendees at the time
pledged to make “intended nationally
determined contributions” (INDCs) to lower
emissions
* There were commitments to a $100 billion
per year fund to support adaptation to
climate change in developing nations

Answer 47

ISSUES:
There is no doubt that these meetings have been important
achievements in terms of getting people to discuss and define the
threats and explore possible solutions.
BUT
*the goal is very unlikely to be achieved unless much more is
done to reduce carbon emissions the 2015 pledges will lead to
global warming of ~2.7°C
IE need major expansion of the basic initiatives discussed in Paris
*there were no legally binding agreements in the 2015 (although
the disastrous 2009 Copenhagen meeting showed that this was
difficult to achieve)
*need to consider if governments in emerging economies going to
be able to tell their citizens that their rise from poverty and
economic development will be restricted or delayed? (e.g. India
generates over 70% of its electricity from coal)

Answer 48

• HOWEVER…on a more optimistic note:
  ‐ it is hoped that this figure of 1.5°C will
  provide a clear target to focus the attention
  of policy‐makers in the future and will
  galvanise governments to make more
  decisive interventions (ratchet effect)…
  global progress will also be reassessed at
  regular intervals
  ‐ may become easier with technological
  advances and rise in low‐carbon energy
  options (but only if costs for renewables per
  unit energy production falls substantially at a
  global level)
   At best, the Paris and Glasgow meetings
  may perhaps be viewed as early steps or
  markers in the process of international
  cooperation – much more work lies ahead

Answer 49