Climatic impacts and global health Flashcards
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
ON HEALTH
Specific learning outcomes
On completion of this topic,
you should be able to:
* Outline in general terms the
scientific explanations used to
account for anthropogenic
climate change
* Discuss how climate change
may directly or indirectly
impact on health and
wellbeing
- The process of climate change/global
warming is linked to the “greenhouse
effect.”
… before we can explore this
phenomenon, we need to ask what
regulates the Earth’s temperature
when there is no human
intervention.
After all, we know that the Earth has
been plunged into Ice Ages and then
warmed considerably – what has been
going on to create these climatic
extremes?
a. CONCEPTS AND SCIENTIFIC FOUNDATIONS OF “CLIMATE
CHANGE”
- According to the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
“climate change” is a
“change in the state of the climate that
can be identified (e.g., by using
statistical tests) by changes in the mean
[average] and/or the variability of its
properties and that persists for an
extended period, typically decades or
longer.”
…This may be due to
“natural processes” or to
“persistent anthropogenic [human‐
driven] changes in the composition of
the atmosphere or in land use.”
- The global factors refer to
the complex
interrelationship between
the atmosphere,
hydrosphere and the
biosphere.
For example, volcanic emissions release large
amounts of sulphur dioxide and particulate
matter – this may result in global cooling as
occurred after Mount Pinatubo in 1991.
- Carbon dioxide is also the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas with an annual release of over 7
gigatonnes
it constitutes > 2/3 of what is termed ‘radiative forcing’ = degree to which infrared radiation is absorbed
by greenhouse gases and re‐emitted, thus warming the atmosphere
BUT the RATE of change of carbon dioxide is far faster than is usual for natural geological processes, and the
AMOUNT of carbon dioxide is greater than we have experienced in recent geological time
- The rise has been detected from the late 1950s – now CO2 stands at about 30% greater than
existed in pre‐industrial times.
…this rise largely appears related to fossil fuel use (slight dip in the 1970s during the fuel crisis)
Carbon dioxide has a residence time in the atmosphere of up to 200 years
Even when there is no human intervention (and
long before there were people on the Earth), ,
water vapour and carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere exert some greenhouse effect
…….In fact, these “natural” greenhouse gases are
important – our planet would be 33 deg C
cooler without them, and the profusion of life
with which we are familiar would be quite
restricted.
* For our hostile near neighbour,
the planet Venus, the process of greenhouse
heating has spiralled out of control: the Venusian
atmosphere contains more than 95% carbon
dioxide (compared to a fraction of one per cent on
Earth),
and ‐ although the planet may at one time have
supported oceans of water ‐ these days the
surface temperatures can hit 460°C.
- The pre‐industrial levels of carbon
dioxide were about 280 parts per
million (shortened to “ppm”)…we are
around 400 ppm and climbing. - Historically, atmospheric carbon
dioxide at these levels has not been
seen for at least 800 000 years (based
on Antarctic ice core analysis), and
probably not even for the last 2.1
million years (based on the shells of
plankton in marine deposits). - Despite the temperature fluctuations
over these hundreds of thousands of
years – which saw ice ages come and
go ‐ the carbon dioxide levels
remained at a remarkably stable
setting between 180ppm (at
maximum glaciation) and 300 ppm
(when the glacial periods had
passed).
Apart from CO2, other
greenhouse gases include
methane and nitrous oxide in the
troposphere; and CFCs
(chlorofluorocarbons))in the
stratosphere
all these gases are highly
effective at absorbing infrared
radiation, so they are effective
at trapping heat.
‐ CFCs have an effect out of
proportion to their tiny
quantities because they absorb
certain infrared frequencies not
captured by the other gases
‐ this potential to trap heat is called the GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL or GWP of these gases – essentially, all
gases are compared to carbon dioxide as a baseline in terms of their ability to induce global warming.
= methane per unit weight is 24 times better than carbon dioxide at inducing global warming
…while CFCs per unit weight are ~5 000‐10 000 times better …CFCs persist for many decades in the atmosphere, so
their contribution will be with us some time yet.
- When considering the fate and cycling of greenhouse gases, we can consider the sources and
sinks of these gases
= sinks are sites or processes by which the gas is removed
& the rate of movement between the source and sink is called the flux
- Major sources of carbon
dioxide are burning of fossil
fuels
and to lesser degree
deforestation (though burning
and decomposition) and land‐
use change.
The sinks are the ocean (e.g.
forms basis of shells and
skeletons of aquatic animals ‐
eventually limestone) and
plants in photosynthesis –
especially when there is forest
regrowth
Deforestation has
a “double whammy” effect
in relation to generating carbon dioxide
…Removal of this vegetation
= creates more carbon dioxide as it burns and
decomposes
AND also the loss of these plants removes an
important sink
- Major sources of methane =
produced by fermentation I.E. where
no oxygen (anaerobic condition) –
produced in marshes, ponds, paddy
fields and from the gastrointestinal
tracts of ruminants, such as cattle
– thus humans contribute to this by
large areas of irrigation in rice
production
AND large numbers of farm animals –
…also termites produce a fair bit of methane,
and the volume and number of termite
mounds increase after deforestation. - Methane is also stored in tundra –
there is a suggestion that in regions
such as Siberia could be produced in
massive quantities if the permafrost
(permanently frozen layer on or
under Earth’s surface) thaws as a
result of global warming
There has also been some
counteractive effect from
dust and soot in the
atmosphere, which stops
the Sun’s energy from
hitting the surface of the
planet
BUT
overall even this has not
overcome the greenhouse
effect
b. ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES OF GREENHOUSE
EMISSIONS
- A wide range of
evidence suggests that
the addition of
greenhouse gases into
the atmosphere will
eventually lead (and
may have already
contributed) to some
level of climate
change/global
warming.
The main scientific issues relating to
climate change/global warming are
as follows:
‐ what is the magnitude of the
change/warming? ‐ will it substantially
disrupt our livelihoods and ecologies?
‐ over what time scale will it occur? ‐ is
it here now, or will we see it in a
generation or two?
- This estimated effect of carbon dioxide on the atmosphere was formally
calculated back in the 1890s, when Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius
worked out that if you double the concentration of CO2 in the
atmosphere, the global temperature will increase by around 5 degree
Celsius
… It took him around two years to complete this calculation by hand.
so in fact we have known about CO2, industrial activity and the risk of a
warming planet since at least 1896… - The current best estimate is around +3 degrees C increase with CO2
doubling …but Arrhenius’ original +5 degrees C in fact remains in the
range of possible values
- There are
a number of
models used to predict the
outcome of global warming
–
these are called GLOBAL
CIRCULATION (or CLIMATE)
MODELS or GCMs
A common mid
‐range
estimate is that we might
expect an average rise in
surface temperature of
between
1 and 3.5 degC
during the course of the
21st century, if carbon
dioxide and other emissions
are not substantially
reduced.
- Of course, the great majority of scientists argue that the evidence is there already
‐‐> Since 1880, there does appear to be an increase in average global temperatures of about 1.1 degrees
Centigrade ‐ with much of this occurring since the mid‐20th century.
This estimate incorporates averages across day and night as well as seasonal fluctuations. The rate of warming
has been more noticeable in the Northern Hemisphere (especially the Arctic)
BUT does this represent a “true” warming trend…or just “natural variation”?
- Significant temperature fluctuations
have occurred in the past 1000 years,
such as the Medieval Warm Period
(from around 900‐1300AD), which
was followed by the Little Ice Age
(which in fact comprised three cooling
events ranging from around 1350 ‐
1850AD). - The cause of these trends is
uncertain, and have been variously
attributed to astronomical influences
(fluctuations in solar activity), natural
aberrations (a disturbance in the
North Atlantic Ocean systems and the
Gulf Stream), and even human factors
(the massive mortality from the Black
Death leading to the return of forests
and their increased uptake of carbon
dioxide).
….However, even during the Medieval Warm
Period, the temperature probably never rose
to the levels that the Northern Hemisphere
has been experiencing in the past two
decades.
More extreme scenarios are being considered by some scientists
there is chance that global warming may enter a kind of “runaway
mode.”
How might such a process get underway?
‐ One of the first steps would involve forests and grasslands starting to act
more as a carbon source than a sink, such as if large areas were to catch
alight or die from loss of water.
…Next, zones of permafrost may melt at a faster rate, releasing ever more
methane from vast boglands in the Arctic.
‐ Finally, there is some doubt over the capacity of the ocean to keep acting
as a sink for greenhouse gases. Seawater currently “soaks up” about half
of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but if the oceans warm up, the
underlying chemical reaction that helps to “capture” the gas will not work
as efficiently.
Any of these processes could accelerate the creation of a
greenhouse world.
It is still difficult to precisely estimate
the consequences of greenhouse gases
in terms of warming or other effects
….but:
* It is expected even a moderate level
of warming would start melting the
polar ice caps, and would contribute
to a rise in sea levels and flooding
&
there would also be a change in
precipitation patterns and a greater
frequency of extreme weather
events
&
geographical shifts or
transformations in many ecosystems
- A rise in temperature has quite variable effects on rainfall
= some parts of North America and Eurasia could receive slightly higher levels overall (maybe with cyclonic events
and flooding?) …except locations such as the south and western US which would be drier - Parts of Australia might also experience more rainfall, although southern WA will most likely be drier
If this progresses……
* in Australia –the shoreline will
change, and saltwater will
intrude into coastal lands and
aquifers + also flooding
* Increases in sea temperatures
will also cause a greater
number and intensity of
tropical cyclones
– they will also occur further
south.
…These will cause damage (bad
outcome) but may also bring
increased rainfall to some
areas (beneficial?)
- For the oceans,
any increase in temperature causes
water to expand (thermal expansion)
and
‐ together with the loss of terrestrial
glaciers and icecaps with runoff into
the ocean ‐
leads to a sea level rise
– It is estimated that there has been a
rise of about 0.2 metre since the
1880s
It is predicted that by 2050, there
will be an increase of around
another 0.3m from now,
and some suggest much higher levels
as we move beyond that date
In some regions (e.g. around the
Pacific), a large unknown factor
is the effect of ENSO, the El
Niño Southern Oscillation
* This cycle begins over in eastern Pacific,
close to South America.
The periods of the warm waters in eastern
Pacific (El Niño) and periods of cooler waters
(La Niña) are accompanied by changes of air
pressure in the east and west Pacific
= these are called the Southern Oscillation.
* El Niño events occur irregularly, about every
2‐7 years. They last from 12 to 18 months.
* The effects of La Niña are generally less
pronounced and tend to be the opposite of
those of El Niño
- The El Niño event begins
with the weakening of the
prevailing winds in the
Pacific and a shift in
rainfall patterns. - The events may be associated
with extreme weather (towards
more floods or drought) in
countries surrounding the
Pacific and much further afield.
Prolonged dry periods may
occur in South‐east Asia,
Southern Africa and Northern
Australia
and
heavy rainfall, sometimes with
flooding, occurs in parts of South
America.
c. HEALTH CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
HEALTH CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE – DIRECT EFFECTS
DIRECT HEALTH IMPACTS
FROM GREATER VARIABILITY
IN WEATHER PATTERNS,
including more frequent or
intense extreme weather
events
Events such as extreme precipitation events
or “rain bombs”, cyclones, severe thunderstorms and flooding
all increase the likelihood of death (e.g. from drowning, structural collapse and blunt trauma)
as well as causing injuries such as lacerations and fractures,
with wound infections from untreated
injuries and risk of tetanus
– there is little doubt that lower‐income countries will suffer most
because they are most vulnerable to environmental disturbance
‐ the areas at particular risk are
* those near coasts
* on islands
* near river confluences
* in poor but densely populated areas
* in areas already susceptible to weather extremes
* in areas dependent on subsistence agriculture
*HEAT RELATED ILLNESS
* Global climate change will drive
an increased frequency and
intensity of heatwaves,
as well as
a pattern of warmer summers and
milder winters.
- An increase in temperature will cause a rise in heat related illness, including heat stroke – the elderly, those on lower incomes,
and people with disabilities; those with other pre‐existing conditions, such as heart disease, and those in certain strenuous
occupations are especially at risk - Older adults are at particular risk of heat‐related effects because of their reduced ability to thermoregulate with age and also
vulnerability to dehydration. as well as because of social or behavioural factors, such being homebound or isolated with
limited options to respond to or escape the effect of heatwaves.
- Because of the “urban heat island effect” ‐ in which urban areas can generate
and store more heat than nearby rural areas ‐ individuals living in cities may often
have an elevated risk of death when temperature and humidity is high compared
to those living in less densely populated areas - In cities, stagnant weather conditions can trap both unusually warm air in
combination with high levels of air pollutants leading to serious smog
episodes which can have a significant impact on cardio‐respiratory health
HEALTH CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
– INDIRECT EFFECTS
Where sanitation and water
availability may already be
marginal, climate can make
a
major difference.
For example, in the Philippines,
higher temperatures have been
linked to an increase in
diarrhoea outbreaks, especially
among children
Increasing average temperatures would allow range expansion for many
species linked to infectious disease.
It is anticipated that certain imported mosquitoes and other vectors such
as ticks would broaden their range to higher latitudes and higher altitudes.
For some species ‐ including Aedes mosquitoes that carry dengue fever,
Zika virus, chikungunya and yellow fever ‐ breeding times are also shorter
at higher temperatures
Increasing average rainfall will
also allow range expansion for
many species
A number of insects,
particularly mosquitoes, would
benefit from this trend.
Disease patterns in Australia
and the Pacific Islands indicate
that the heavy summer falls
are associated with breeding of
Aedes and Culex, which have
been linked to increased rates
of infections such as Ross River
virus and dengue fever
*FOOD PRODUCTION
* Many crops are temperature sensitive – some
areas may experience increased production (e.g.
Canada/Siberia, although the soil in some of
these regions is not highly fertile)
…BUT many other communities would have to seek
alternative crop or different planting methods
‐ Many crops in the tropical zones are in fact at
around their optimal growing temperature now
– grain yields will tend to decline if we shift too
far from the current level
‐ while at the same time many weed species will do
better with more heat, as will a wider range of
plant pests, including destructive insects and
fungi
The overall global impact on food production
is negative, with lower‐income communities
being the most vulnerable to declines in yields
- The likelihood and persistence of drought will increase with temperature
it is predicted that:
‐ at 2 degrees of warming = northern India and most of the countries around the Mediterranean affected
‐ at 3 degrees of warming = by this stage, global calorie production based on current range of crops would be less than global
demand, as Central America, western US and Pakistan affected – as well as most of Australia
…at 5 degrees of warming = wide “drought‐belts” around the planet affecting many regions, possibly annually – including many
parts of China, Europe, Middle East, as well as many densely populated regions in Africa and South America
- ASTHMA AND OTHER
RESPIRATORY
DISEASES
‐ likely to become more common with
greenhouse conditions because
more rain /heat = more pollen from
plant growth and increase in fungal
spores
‐‐> aeroallergens contribute to allergies and
asthma
WHEREAS
‐ In parts of the world where there is a
drying trend = more aridity + more dust
= also more asthma
ALSO increased photochemical reactions
that produce ozone = asthma
- RISKS FROM MAJOR FIRE EVENTS
- Climate scientists have found that
climate change now plays
a key role in
exacerbating the risk of bushfires - Note that risk of fire is also influenced
by other factors, including presence of
fuels, land management practices,
existing fire prevention strategies, and
geography - In major fires, radiant heat obviously
poses
a direct and dangerous threat
with risk of death or burn injuries. - Other well
‐recognised health risks from
major fires include dehydration, heat
exhaustion, direct respiratory tract
burns, and severe respiratory tract
injury from smoke inhalation. - Large bushfires can produce
sustained periods of haze and
particulate air pollution
contribute to associated
cardiorespiratory morbidity and
mortality - It is well
‐established that major
bushfire events are linked to spikes
in hospital admissions and
emergency department contacts for
exacerbations of asthma
Vector and pathogen habitats are also influenced by any increases in the
frequency of extreme climatic events.
For example, floods are linked to the spread of vector‐borne and water‐borne
diseases.
Sustained droughts comprise water supplies and sanitation systems.
Climate affects most aspects of food production in some way, such as the types of crops
selected, the regions used for farming, average production, how the affected land is managed,
input costs, and prices of food products
The loss of harvests and livestock poses one of the greatest threats to human health from
climate change
Increased rates of climate‐related hunger and malnutrition across many regions of the globe
*DECREASED WATER SECURITY
* The many problems that we have already discussed relating to water
may be exacerbated,
particularly in areas vulnerable to aridity as
a result of climate change
* Water
‐borne diseases are influenced
by water temperature
and the frequency and intensity of rain and flooding events.
E.g. flooding may result in sewage or farm run
‐off entering drinking
‐water
supplies, leading to outbreaks of infectious diseases such as
cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis
…while droughts may increase concentrations of some pathogens in water
* These climate
‐related effects may overwhelm disinfection and
purification processes in water treatment plants.
*SEA LEVEL RISE
* The sea level rise is of major
importance given that around
60% of the world’s population
lives near the coast
many of these areas are
susceptible to storm surges and
flooding it is expected that
arable land could be affected by
erosion and salinisation
– also salinisation of freshwater
aquifers + disruption of often
marginal sanitation e.g.
Bangladesh + Egypt with large
delta farming population
- Island habitats are particularly vulnerable to probable consequences of
global warming, such as rising sea levels
The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) has indicated that small islands
are vulnerable to increasing amplitudes and frequencies of high tides, greater wave
damage and intrusion of salt water into the islands underground reserves of
freshwater. - Atolls, such as the Maldives and Kiribati, are at particular risk from even
small changes in sea level - Many low‐lying states may partially disappear, eroding terrestrial
habitats and triggering further competition for use of the remaining
land.
*REFUGEE CRISES
* The impacts of flooding, sea‐level
rise and other climate change
impacts (declines in food
production) is predicted to
culminate in an era of mass
migration
The World Bank predicts at least 140
million people from parts of South Asia,
Africa and Latin America will be displaced
by 2050
…while the United Nations has given an
global estimate of more like 200 million
‘climate refugees’ by 2050
‐ in fact, a figure of around 1 billion is within
the UN’s possible range, although these
higher figures are contested
- MENTAL HEALTH IMPACTS
- Emotional reactions to extreme events, such as post‐traumatic stress
disorder (PTSD), depression and anxiety
..but we must also consider the pervasive effects of “environmental grief,” in
the face of the climate crisis
- Warming and drying trends in some regions – or conversely, greater flood risk ‐ will result in a higher prevalence of mental health problems
- In rural areas it is predicted that prolonged drought and reduced farm yields in the long‐term will result in a rise in stress, depression and average suicide rate
- Climate change may exacerbate the challenges and inequities already experienced by regional communities this will further increase the demand for already
scarce social support and mental health services
There is also distancing of the consequences of our actions across time.
The emphasis on short time horizons means that we continue to pollute and use resources
Need to aim for equity amongst nations, societies and communities BUT ALSO between generations I.E.
intergenerational equity
= “Each generation has the right to inherit the same diversity in natural and cultural resources enjoyed by previous
generations
and to equitable access to the use and benefits of these resources.”
RESPONSES TO THE THREAT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
Broadly the options are:
Complete denial
Partial or full acceptance BUT ignore for
now/”Business as usual”
Mitigation
Adaptation
Combination of Mitigation + Adaptation
»often seen as the preferred option
- DENY THE PROBLEM
Usually takes the form of
Refuting that significant climate
change is occurring at all
or
Accepting the process is occurring
but refuting that humans have any
role in contributing to these
changes
- MITIGATION
- “Let’s stop it happening in the first place”
- The IPCC formally defines mitigation in this context as:
“An anthropogenic (human‐driven) intervention to reduce the
anthropogenic forcing of the climate system
it includes strategies to reduce greenhouse gas sources and
emissions
and enhancing greenhouse gas sinks” (that act to remove greenhouse
gases from the atmosphere)
- ACKNOWLEDGE BUT
IGNORE THE PROBLEM
‐ This is a planning option
advocated by many
particularly those who think the
evidence is not compelling
OR that the issue is not sufficiently
important to warrant serious
attention
‐ This “inaction” option will
continue to be considered for as
long as scientific uncertainty
remains ………and maybe for long
after because there are major
political and economic barriers to
intervention
- Ratification and enforcement of
international protocols is essential,
including global implementation of carbon
reduction schemes
……BUT
for countries such as Australia = large energy sector
thus arguments are made for compensation or
concessions because of adverse economic impacts
…also the local availability of coal and its
comparatively low cost ensure that this fossil fuel
will be needed for the foreseeable future. Coal is
driving Asia’s societal development, and by 2030,
coal will still generate three‐quarters of the globe’s
electricity supply
- What is the goal of mitigation?
essentially to avoid significant human interference with Earth’s climate –
and its direct and indirect consequences ‐ by stabilizing greenhouse gas
levels
- ADAPTATION
- “Let’s prepare and try to protect ourselves against it”
- The IPCC formally defines adaptation in this context as:
“Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or
their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.”
essentially, we take steps to reduce our vulnerability to potentially damaging impacts
…Various terms used in relation to adaptation, including:
*Anticipatory adaptation – Adaptation that takes place before impacts of climate change are observed (Also
known as proactive adaptation).
*Planned adaptation – Adaptation that is the result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an awareness that
conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to, maintain, or achieve a
desired state.
This usually includes taking
steps to curb or stop the
production of greenhouse
gases – that is,
setting and enforcing
emissions targets
and use of various
emissions reduction
programs and strategies,
such as cutting our
reliance on emissions‐
intensive sources of
energy
BUT
It must also be
acknowledged that there
is no way to lower the
level of carbon dioxide,
methane, and NOx
without major social or
economic impact……
- Some possible options that have been proposed include:
‐ Energy efficient homes and workplaces
‐ Shift to renewables ‐ solar/ wind / water power (e.g. hydro and tidal)
NB Although the pace of innovation is accelerating, it is unlikely that the majority of global energy needs will eventually
be supplied from the renewable sources, although some individual nations may achieve much higher proportions of
usage.
‐ Reduce fossil fuel use (eg on a per capita basis, Australians use 4x vehicle fuel used in Japan)
‐ Increase use of nuclear energy (but has other consequences)
- To prepare for and try to avert
the health impacts of climate
change, we need to assess the
degree to which communities
(or their resources) have been
or could be threatened by
weather‐related events that
significantly deviate from the
usual pattern.
To fully define who is
‘vulnerable’ in this respect, it is
necessary to consider both the
likelihood of the event occurring
in a particular place,
and the capacity of the affected
society to counter such a threat.
- What is the goal of adaptation?
to adjust to life in a changing climate (either actual climate now or expected in the future) ‐ such as by altering our systems,
behaviours, economies, environments or even ways of life –
in order to reduce our risks from the adverse climate impacts, such as extreme weather events or loss of food and water
resources
…and/or (in some cases) to capitalise on any potential benefits associated with climate change (for example, expanding range
of crops in regions once too cold for cultivation).
Preparations for the impacts of
climate change might include:
‐ New measures to control infectious
disease, such as strategies to control
vector‐borne disease…or we could try
to broaden immunisation programs
‐ Change crops and other food sources
to suit emerging climate
‐ Changes in patterns of building
around coasts and rivers ‐ protective
structures
‐ Planned migrations from coastal or
low‐lying areas …. But where will the
tens of millions of refugees estimated
from low‐lying countries such as
Bangladesh go…?
RECENT INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE MEETINGS:
‐ 2015: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Paris meeting
‐ 2021: 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), Glasgow
* Attendees at the 2015 meeting agreed
with the objective of keeping temperature
changes well below 2°C above pre‐
industrial levels…with efforts to keep the
level below 1.5°C
187 of the 195 attendees at the time
pledged to make “intended nationally
determined contributions” (INDCs) to lower
emissions
* There were commitments to a $100 billion
per year fund to support adaptation to
climate change in developing nations
ISSUES:
There is no doubt that these meetings have been important
achievements in terms of getting people to discuss and define the
threats and explore possible solutions.
BUT
*the goal is very unlikely to be achieved unless much more is
done to reduce carbon emissions the 2015 pledges will lead to
global warming of ~2.7°C
IE need major expansion of the basic initiatives discussed in Paris
*there were no legally binding agreements in the 2015 (although
the disastrous 2009 Copenhagen meeting showed that this was
difficult to achieve)
*need to consider if governments in emerging economies going to
be able to tell their citizens that their rise from poverty and
economic development will be restricted or delayed? (e.g. India
generates over 70% of its electricity from coal)
- HOWEVER…on a more optimistic note:
‐ it is hoped that this figure of 1.5°C will
provide a clear target to focus the attention
of policy‐makers in the future and will
galvanise governments to make more
decisive interventions (ratchet effect)…
global progress will also be reassessed at
regular intervals
‐ may become easier with technological
advances and rise in low‐carbon energy
options (but only if costs for renewables per
unit energy production falls substantially at a
global level)
At best, the Paris and Glasgow meetings
may perhaps be viewed as early steps or
markers in the process of international
cooperation – much more work lies ahead
