Climate Projections Flashcards
What is external influence of uncertainty?
Not part of the climate system but still can cause variability
What are some natural external influences of uncertainty?
Change in the amount of particles in the atmosphere from volcanic eruptions
Sun’s energy
Both important drivers before humans
What causes the gulf-stream?
Water evaporates in the North Atlantic
This causes the sea water to get saltier and thus denser
This pushes the circulation of the gulf-stream
What is slowing down the gulf-stream?
Fresh water from ice caps
Is there more or less uncertainty at smaller scales?
More
How to overcome modelling uncertainty issues?
Use different models to overcome modelling uncertainties
Multiple models allow probability density functions
PDFs take modelling uncertainty and uncertainty due to natural variability into account
How much of the greenhouse effect is water vapour responsible for?
1/2
How much more water vapour does 1C warmer air have?
7%
Does increasing water vapour cause global warming?
No - it is a consequence of it
Which areas are warming the most?
High latitudes - particularly northern
Land warms more than oceans
What is causing sea levels to rise?
Ice caps and glaciers melting
Thermal expansion
What factor is causing sea levels to rise the most?
Thermal expansion
When water heats up it has to expand
What is an example of internal influence of uncertainty?
North Atlantic oscillation
