Climate Change Flashcards
Human-induced climate change linked to carbon dioxide emissions from industrialisation
C02 emissions correlates with world total GDP/p, hence reaffirming that warming is likely to be due to human activity
Maddison 2007
Although there is an association between human industrial activity/p and economic development with climate change, inequality is a characteristic of climate change as rich or more developed countries contribute the most to climate change yet, arguably, some developing countries may suffer the most due to geographical location e.g. Bangladesh
Pathways by which climate change may affect health outcomes
Using the Haines and Patz, 2003 model:
Climate change -> regional weather changes e.g. Increased likelihood of extreme temperatures -> INDIRECT MECHANISM E.G. SOCIOECONOMIC DECLINE -> health effects, e.g. Increased vector borne diseases e.g. Malaria
NB. the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) confirm that malarial transmission is likely to fluctuate with “very high confidence” due to climate change
Water scarcity is growing
Impact of floods: (4)
By 2025, more than half the worlds population is projected to live under conditions of severe water stress and 50-60% of wetlands have been lost.
Floods:
- immediate death and injury
- ID
- secondary to economic losses
- long term mental health effects
Climate and health: Bangladesh case study
BACKGROUND
- Natural hazards: much of country is a vast river delta for Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers
- Extreme weather events: e.g. Cyclones in 1970 and 1991 killin 300k and 138k respectively
- Likely to be exacerbated by climate change and sea level rise (SLR)
- Rising sea levels in Bay of Bengal leads to salinisation - currently saline 2.8million ha - in last 50 years, salinity has risen by 45%.
A large share of the population in coastal Bangladesh may be consuming levels of up to 16g/day of salt in the dry season from only 2L of natural drinking water.
Based on the INTERSALT model, the changes introduced by water salinity would lead a large proportion of the population to develop pre-hypertension and hypertension depending on the baseline levels.
Water Salinity and health
Climate change e.g. SLR -> saltwater intrusion [shallow groundwater] -> surface water salinity [downstream river] -> pond water [consumption] -> health effects
Adapted from the model relating climate change and health outcome, e.g. Haines and Patz 2003
Rising salinity - cause of pregnancy related hypertension in Coastal Bangladesh (descriptive data).
Then, test hypothesis
Khan et al, lancet 2008
Compared the prevalence of hypertensive disorders (preeclampsia, eclampsia, hypertension) attending antenatal checkups from May to July 2007 across a coastal city (Dacope) and two non-coastal city (matwail). Higher prevalence of all 3 in Dacope, e.g. Dacope 12% eclampsia vs matwail 1% eclampsia
In a followup paper in 2011, khan recorded the prevalence of hypertension (with or without proteinuria) amongst pregnant patients in a health centre in Dacope. A total of 90 cases, prevalence OR of 2.39 (significant)
khan et al EHP 2011
To test the hypothesis, case control study of 202 cases with 1006 controls (good to have >1 control per case as it increases power and internal validity??)
Step 1: identified water source with greatest salinity (tubewell)
Step 2: identified blood pressure differentiated by water source
Step 3: logistic regression to confirm whether salinity was causing the hypertensive disorders
OR 7.98 for tubewell cf 1-5.15 for other water sources for gestational hypertension
Solutions to salinity due to climate change
Salinity of rainwater less than those commonly used for drinking e.g. Tubewell, so rainwater harvesting
Social impact and adaptation (climate change)
Impact on women
- women suffer disproportionately more during disasters
- 70% of worlds poor are women
- women account for majority of climate related deaths
Biological variabilities
- nutrition
- reproductive health
Social vulnerabilities
- poverty, discrimination, stigma, sexual violence (LINK)
Global Burden of climate change and SLR i
634 million people live in coastal areas within 30 feet (9.1m) of sea level.
about two-thirds of the World’s cities with over 5 million people are located in these low-lying coastal areas.
The IPCC predicts that sea level will further increase in the next decades.This will make the problem of salinity in drinking water becoming an emergency in most coastal areas, particularly in low-income countries.
Immediate action is needed, partly because of the simplicity of the adaptation measures, including rainwater harvesting and solar distillation. Adaptation measures require immediate coordination among governments and NGOs. In this particular case prevention is immensely less expensive than treatment of disease in future generations.
Drought
●Acute and chronic nutritional problems
-undernutrition, protein-energy
malnutrition, micro-nutrient deficiency
●Infectious diseases
●Respiratory diseases
●Deaths
●Production of wheat and rice might no longer be economically suitable under climate change.
●A study found that drought, lack of food were associated with increased risk of mortality from diarrhoeal diseases (Aziz 1991)
Delpla et al 2009.Impacts of climate change on surface water quality in relation to drinking water productio
Conclusions
o degradation trend of drinking water quality leading to increase of at risk situations with regard to potential health impact
o Among water quality parameters, dissolved organic matter, micropollutants and pathogens are susceptible to rise in concentration or number as a consequence of temperature increase (water, air and soil) and heavy rain falls in temperate countries
o Water-borne diseases are potentially highly linked to climate change impacts but still rarely studied at least for temperate countries
o There is a huge need for water quality monitoring and predictive tools as models and decision support systems mainly with the aim of health risks assessment and remediation and adaptation actions.
WHO/DFID Vision 2030: The resilience of water supply and sanitation in the face of climate change.
Department for international development
Overall Conclusions on Drinking-Water
o Piped drinking-water coverage is high and increasing, with Africa the only continent with a significant number of countries predicted to have less than 75% piped water coverage 2020
o Increased piped coverage will add a small but significant demand on water resources at the same time as pressure from other demands and from climate change is increasing
o Protected springs and rainwater harvesting are predicted to account for less than 10% of
o improved water supplies in all regions
o Use of protected wells is higher in rural compared to urban areas
Most Resilient Water Technology – Utility piped water supply, tubewells, protected springs, small piped systems, drug well, rainwater harvesting
Overall Conclusions on Sanitation
o Latrines of various types are predicted to make up the bulk of sanitation coverage in Africa, and in South, South-east and East Asia
o Coverage with sewerage is expected to remain relatively low in Africa, and in South, South-east and East Asia until 2020, with most countries having less than 25% coverage
o Sewerage is expected to account for up to 50% of sanitation coverage by 2020 in a few already dry countries, which will place an additional strain on existing water resources
o Development of sewage treatment lags behind extension of sewerage connection, and this is expected to continue. Lack of sewage treatment has significant adverse impacts for health and environment, which will be aggravated by climate change if this increases flooding of sewers and overloading of treatment facilities
Most Resilient Sanitation Technology – Pit latrines, low-flush septic systems, high-volume septic systems, conventional and modified sewage
