Climate Change Flashcards
How are the changes in atmospheric CO2 now compared to 1850?
Outside natural range and rate of change of the natural variability of the last 800k years
How do we know about these changes?
Changes in ice cores are matched by evidence from the land and Indigenous oral knowledge
How do we know that the increase in concentration of CO2 observed in Keeling’s measurements aren’t just natural variations in the earth’s climate system?
Air bubbles from thousands of years ago are trapped in glacial ice
Ice cores: direct archive of past atmospheric gasses
Compacted snow turns into ice, air is trapped in tiny bubbles that can be studied
What are the major sources of GHG?
Producing electricity and heat (fossil fuels)
Industry (fossil fuels)
Transportation (fossil fuels)
Agriculture and land use change (fertilizer, emissions from animals, deforestation, fossil fuels)
What are the impacts on nature?
GHGs from humans have increased the frequency and/or intensity of extreme precipitation, droughts, fires, cyclones, extreme temperatures
Many species have altered ranges, migration patterns and abundance
E.g. Mountain pine beetle – thrives after mild winters
The timing of breeding, flowering, etc. is shifting, affecting food webs
What is Albedo?
the proportion of solar energy a surface reflects
light surfaces reflect more; dark ones reflect less
changes in albedo can trigger feedback loops
How does climate change impact human systems?
Increased wildfires, water shortages, heat stress, disease outbreaks
Crop yields decrease more commonly than increase
Widens inequalities: poor, vulnerable are hit hardest
Climate change impacts “are hindering efforts to meet basic human needs and they threaten sustainable development across the globe” (IPCC 2021)
How do we know this impact is happening?
- science
- other forms of observation
- indigenous oral knowledge
What is the science behind climate change?
Methods: real-time observation, historical observation, models
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Hundreds of experts from around the world
Synthesizes research publications on climate change
Only includes peer-reviewed science
IPCC reports are extensively peer reviewed
Why trust science?
Naomi Oreskes (2019 book)
Because the scientific method is infallible? No it isn’t
Wrong theories can make right predictions (e.g. Ptolemaic model)
Because scientists have individual expertise?
NO – they do, but can still be wrong
E.g. many geologists rejected the theory of plate tectonics
Because the scientific community has collective expertise?
YES
When experts reach consensus, they are most likely to be right
When the scientific community is diverse, it is most likely to be right
Diversity of methods
Diversity of people
What is the Ptolemaic model?
Earth is the center of the universe; all other bodies revolve around it
What do we also know about climate change?
There is a great inequality in who’s responsible and who suffers
What did Katharine Hayhoe say about what we needed to do?
The more we mitigate, the less we have to adapt; the more we mitigate and adapt, the less we’ll have to suffer
What are the challenges in climate governance?
Emissions Gap report: Most countries are not on track to reach their international commitments
Even so, these agreements were very difficult to reach
What are the major issues in climate politics?
Who should reduce their emissions, by how much?
Who should pay to help developing countries avoid future emissions and adapt to climate change?
Who should pay for the climate change impacts already being felt?
What are the key concepts of reducing and preparing for climate change?
Mitigation: efforts to reduce climate change and its impacts
Adaptation: efforts to prepare the effects of climate change
What fraction of a degree matters?
Every fraction of a degree matters
During the last ice age, global temperature was only 4 - 7 degrees cooler than it is today
Who negotiates the international climate governance?
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
COP: Conference of the Parties
- Government negotiators
- Heads of state
- Other delegates
- Side events
What are the delegations to COPs?
Countries have unequal delegation sizes
- Hard to keep up with parallel or late-night sessions
Shift over time in which government departments are represented
- Fewer environment ministries; more energy, international relations, trade
More non-state actors over time
- E.g. Business associations, local governments, NGOs
- Over 1,700 fossil fuel representatives were at COP29!
What is the Kyoto Protocol?
Adopted 1997; came into force 2005: legally binding
Required countries with more historical responsibility to cut emissions
Annex 1: USA, EU, Australia, Canada, Japan, Russia…
Did not require those with less historical responsibility to cut emissions
China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Nigeria…
Kyoto Protocol first commitment period ended in 2012
Canada signed, then withdrew (2012) – faced $14 billion in fines
Should more countries reduce their emissions?
Relative responsibility was a major topic of dispute when negotiating a Kyoto successor agreement
Many Annex 1 countries wanted countries who were previously exempt (esp. China) to have reduction targets too
Many developing countries argued their opportunities for economic development should not be constrained
Countries with large forests (incl. Canada) argued they should get credit for storing carbon
What was the Pris Agreement in 2015?
Includes commitments from all countries to reduce emissions
Countries must develop and implement Nationally Determined Contributions (no global template)
Policies are expected to get stronger over time
But: No penalties for countries that break the agreement
Who should pay to help developing countries avoid future emissions?
Climate finance / green technology transfer
2009: rich countries pledged $100 billion/year by 2020 to help less wealthy countries with mitigation, adaptation
2015: Paris Agreement reiterated this expectation
Who should pay for the impacts of climate change already being felt?
“As the Global North pollutes, the Global South suffers” – Achiume 2023
Loss and damage: Compensation for countries experiencing climate change impacts
Wealthier countries have long resisted financial responsibility for the consequences of climate change
What is the progress on loss and damage?
2022: New loss and damage fund established at COP27
- A victory after 30 years of failing to agree!
- COP29 update
What has happened to climate change since the Paris Agreement?
Global emissions have continued to rise (temporary reduction in 2020)
Most countries still have insufficient targets to limit warming to 1.5 degrees
What are the governance challenges to climate change?
Capitalism runs on fossil fuels
Cooperation is key – but no one wants to move first
- “Leakage” – when rules in one country displace activities to another
- Example: something auto moving to Mexico, soybean production
- Imbalances of power
- Many of those most affected by climate change have little representation or influence
No penalties for missing targets
What are the climate justice challenges?
Climate change is rooted in colonialism
Many proposed solutions perpetuate racial injustice
