Climate Change

Question 1

How are the changes in atmospheric CO2 now compared to 1850?

Answer 1

Outside natural range and rate of change of the natural variability of the last 800k years

Question 2

How do we know about these changes?

Answer 2

Changes in ice cores are matched by evidence from the land and Indigenous oral knowledge

Question 3

How do we know that the increase in concentration of CO2 observed in Keeling’s measurements aren’t just natural variations in the earth’s climate system?

Answer 3

Air bubbles from thousands of years ago are trapped in glacial ice

Ice cores: direct archive of past atmospheric gasses

Compacted snow turns into ice, air is trapped in tiny bubbles that can be studied

Question 4

What are the major sources of GHG?

Answer 4

Producing electricity and heat (fossil fuels)

Industry (fossil fuels)

Transportation (fossil fuels)

Agriculture and land use change (fertilizer, emissions from animals, deforestation, fossil fuels)

Question 5

What are the impacts on nature?

Answer 5

GHGs from humans have increased the frequency and/or intensity of extreme precipitation, droughts, fires, cyclones, extreme temperatures

Many species have altered ranges, migration patterns and abundance

E.g. Mountain pine beetle – thrives after mild winters
The timing of breeding, flowering, etc. is shifting, affecting food webs

Question 6

What is Albedo?

Answer 6

the proportion of solar energy a surface reflects

light surfaces reflect more; dark ones reflect less

changes in albedo can trigger feedback loops

Question 7

How does climate change impact human systems?

Answer 7

Increased wildfires, water shortages, heat stress, disease outbreaks

Crop yields decrease more commonly than increase

Widens inequalities: poor, vulnerable are hit hardest

Climate change impacts “are hindering efforts to meet basic human needs and they threaten sustainable development across the globe” (IPCC 2021)

Question 8

How do we know this impact is happening?

Answer 8

• science
• other forms of observation
• indigenous oral knowledge

Question 9

What is the science behind climate change?

Answer 9

Methods: real-time observation, historical observation, models

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Hundreds of experts from around the world
Synthesizes research publications on climate change
Only includes peer-reviewed science
IPCC reports are extensively peer reviewed

Question 10

Why trust science?

Answer 10

Naomi Oreskes (2019 book)

Because the scientific method is infallible? No it isn’t

Wrong theories can make right predictions (e.g. Ptolemaic model)

Because scientists have individual expertise?
NO – they do, but can still be wrong

E.g. many geologists rejected the theory of plate tectonics

Because the scientific community has collective expertise?
YES

When experts reach consensus, they are most likely to be right

When the scientific community is diverse, it is most likely to be right
Diversity of methods
Diversity of people

Question 11

What is the Ptolemaic model?

Answer 11

Earth is the center of the universe; all other bodies revolve around it

Question 12

What do we also know about climate change?

Answer 12

There is a great inequality in who’s responsible and who suffers

Question 13

What did Katharine Hayhoe say about what we needed to do?

Answer 13

The more we mitigate, the less we have to adapt; the more we mitigate and adapt, the less we’ll have to suffer

Question 14

What are the challenges in climate governance?

Answer 14

Emissions Gap report: Most countries are not on track to reach their international commitments

Even so, these agreements were very difficult to reach

Question 15

What are the major issues in climate politics?

Answer 15

Who should reduce their emissions, by how much?

Who should pay to help developing countries avoid future emissions and adapt to climate change?

Who should pay for the climate change impacts already being felt?

Question 16

What are the key concepts of reducing and preparing for climate change?

Answer 16

Mitigation: efforts to reduce climate change and its impacts

Adaptation: efforts to prepare the effects of climate change

Question 17

What fraction of a degree matters?

Answer 17

Every fraction of a degree matters

During the last ice age, global temperature was only 4 - 7 degrees cooler than it is today

Question 18

Who negotiates the international climate governance?

Answer 18

UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

COP: Conference of the Parties
- Government negotiators
- Heads of state
- Other delegates
- Side events

Question 19

What are the delegations to COPs?

Answer 19

Countries have unequal delegation sizes
- Hard to keep up with parallel or late-night sessions

Shift over time in which government departments are represented
- Fewer environment ministries; more energy, international relations, trade

More non-state actors over time
- E.g. Business associations, local governments, NGOs
- Over 1,700 fossil fuel representatives were at COP29!

Question 20

What is the Kyoto Protocol?

Answer 20

Adopted 1997; came into force 2005: legally binding

Required countries with more historical responsibility to cut emissions
Annex 1: USA, EU, Australia, Canada, Japan, Russia…

Did not require those with less historical responsibility to cut emissions
China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Nigeria…

Kyoto Protocol first commitment period ended in 2012

Canada signed, then withdrew (2012) – faced $14 billion in fines

Question 21

Should more countries reduce their emissions?

Answer 21

Relative responsibility was a major topic of dispute when negotiating a Kyoto successor agreement

Many Annex 1 countries wanted countries who were previously exempt (esp. China) to have reduction targets too

Many developing countries argued their opportunities for economic development should not be constrained

Countries with large forests (incl. Canada) argued they should get credit for storing carbon

Question 22

What was the Pris Agreement in 2015?

Answer 22

Includes commitments from all countries to reduce emissions

Countries must develop and implement Nationally Determined Contributions (no global template)

Policies are expected to get stronger over time

But: No penalties for countries that break the agreement

Question 23

Who should pay to help developing countries avoid future emissions?

Answer 23

Climate finance / green technology transfer

2009: rich countries pledged $100 billion/year by 2020 to help less wealthy countries with mitigation, adaptation

2015: Paris Agreement reiterated this expectation

Question 24

Who should pay for the impacts of climate change already being felt?

Answer 24

“As the Global North pollutes, the Global South suffers” – Achiume 2023

Loss and damage: Compensation for countries experiencing climate change impacts

Wealthier countries have long resisted financial responsibility for the consequences of climate change

Question 25

What is the progress on loss and damage?

Answer 25

2022: New loss and damage fund established at COP27
- A victory after 30 years of failing to agree!

• COP29 update

Question 26

What has happened to climate change since the Paris Agreement?

Answer 26

Global emissions have continued to rise (temporary reduction in 2020)

Most countries still have insufficient targets to limit warming to 1.5 degrees

Question 27

What are the governance challenges to climate change?

Answer 27

Capitalism runs on fossil fuels

Cooperation is key – but no one wants to move first

• “Leakage” – when rules in one country displace activities to another
• Example: something auto moving to Mexico, soybean production
• Imbalances of power
• Many of those most affected by climate change have little representation or influence

No penalties for missing targets

Question 28

What are the climate justice challenges?

Answer 28

Climate change is rooted in colonialism

Many proposed solutions perpetuate racial injustice