Climate change Flashcards
Radiative forcing
Expression of imbalance of earths energy system
Global warming indicators
Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover, change in global average upper ocean heat content, Arctic summer sea ice extent, global average sea level change
IPCC
Intergovernmental panel of climate change = highly scientific organisation of UN founded 1988 1990 first report 2013 fifth report 2021 Latest report (AR6)
Climate scenarios (modelling) - RCP
Socio-economic future development and radiative forcing
4 main scenarios: RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 & 8.5
2021 radiative forcing
2.72 (higher than lowest scenario)
SSPx
New way of referring to RCP
Means shared socio-economic pathway
Little ice age
Changed only 1-2 (0.5 to - 0.5) degrees but massive difference in temperature in the world and north-western europe
AR5 model in words
Changing precipitation will change hydrological system (medium confidence)
Many species have shifted geographical range (high confidence)
Negative impacts on crop yields are more common than positive ones (high confidence)
Human-ill health shows no clear relation to climate change (except heat and cold related mortality)
AR5 extreme scenarios
Decrease in number of cold days and increase in number of hot days (high confidence)
Increase in storm surges since 1970 due to sea level rise (likely)
more land regions with heavy rainfall events (likely)
Increase of frequency and magnitude of fluvial floods (low confidence)
more droughts (low confidence due to missing data)
KNMI climate scenario (Regional - NL)
From 2014.
Global temperature rise (G, low or high) & Change in air circulation patterns (W, low or high)
More dominant westerly winds in NL recent years.
Regional climate change effects - coastal zones
Little or no change in storm surge frequency
Continuation of rising sea level
Increased salination of ground and surface water
Regional climate change effects - Fresh water discharge
The river discharge will rise in winter (higher peak)
Increase in change of flooding
The fitness of rivers will decrease in warm summers
Regional climate change effects - Water budget
Drought will lead to deficit, lower water quality and salinisation
Regional climate change effects - General health
Higher deaths in summer due to increased temperatures but lower in winter
Reduced air quality in summers
longer growing season which means increase in number of ‘‘allergy days’’
Regional climate change effects - Mobility
More traffic delays could be caused due to heavy showers, but less due to less snow and frost on roads