Climate + ag Flashcards
What are the types of cooling and heating?
Heating & Cooling - Transfer of Energy
Heating or cooling takes place when energy is transferred to or from the earth, atmosphere, and oceans.
Three ways through which this can happen:
1. Radiation (every object emits (and absorbs)
electromagnetic radiation)
Cooling on clear cloudless nights
Warm nights with cloudy skies
Greenhouse Effect
2. Convection (physical movement of matter) - localized cooling or heating A pot of boiling water Volcanic eruptions Thunderstorms
- Conduction (transfer by physical contact)
Heat loss through contact with wind (wind chill)
Frost depth in sub-freezing weather - The frost depth is most commonly the depth to which the
groundwater in soil is expected to freeze. The frost depth depends on the climatic conditions of an
area, the heat transfer properties of the soil and adjacent materials, and on nearby heat sources.
Wat are some of the things measured?
What is measured or estimated (agriculture):
• maximum and minimum air temperature
• rainfall
• wind speed and direction - sonic anemometers
• solar radiation
• mean sea level pressure (only in spatial grid data)
• relative humidity at the time of maximum and minimum temperature
• vapour pressure (derived from relative humidity or dewpoint temperature)
• evaporation (two types – class A pan and synthetic pan). Pan combines or integrates the effects of several climate elements: temperature, humidity, rain fall, drought dispersion, solar radiation, and wind
• evapotranspiration (five different options – FAO56, Morton’s actual, Morton’s potential, Morton’s lake, Morton’s wet)
• potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a representation of the environmental demand for evapotranspiration and represents the evapotranspiration rate of a short green crop, completely shading the ground, of uniform height and with adequate water status in the soil profile
How does weather affect ag?
- Rainfall amount and timing – drought, waterlogging
- Temperature - growth
- Frost – kill plants, flowers
- Wind – structural damage
- Affect incidence and severity of pests and diseases
- Evaporation (ET) – reduces available water
- Relative humidity- affects ET
- Solar radiation – energy for photosynthesis
How does climate affect agriculture?
• Development of soils (long term)
• Dictates the types of crops that can be grown
– Why we don’t grow certain crops in certain parts
of the country
• The assumptions that people make about what will
occur and their response
– Drought, flooding, frosts
– Temperature, precipitation
– Levels and patterns
What are the types of risk and uncertainty?
• Predictable
– Likelihood, timing and severity of can be predicted
• e.g. frost impacts on crop yields
• Uncertain, well defined
– Understand the nature of expected events, but cannot predict their magnitude or timing
• e.g. Bushfires, drought, disease outbreaks
• Uncertain, poorly defined
– We can anticipate that surprises will happen, but know nothing about them
• e.g. Fukishima, Titantic, Birdflu, GFC.
Risk management vs uncertainty management?
Risk management – identify risk – develop options to manage • avoid risk • manage consequences – pick best option – make a decision NOW – review and start process again Choice is narrowed to find a best option - STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT
Uncertainty management – defer decisions while seeking new information – reframe the problem – develop no-regret options – create redundancy – provide contingency Choice is expanded to change the nature of the problem - TACTICAL MANAGEMENT
Evidence for climate change?
- IPCC has found…
=> Inc. global av temps, global av sea level, dec. N hem snow cover.
=> widespread melting of snow and ice - WMO has found..
=> inc. levels of all the GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O, sulfur
BOM has found…
- Increasing max temp. trends in Australia
- Average mean temp. anomaly in Aus going from typically 1 degree below to 1 degree above zero.
- Change in rainfall trends across AUS
- Inc. sea surface tempts around AUS
What are some of the intergovernmental conventions and actions on CC?
IPCC: Established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
UN Climate Action Summit 2019
September 2019’s Climate Action Summit delivered
important new actions, a surge in climate
momentum, and a clear destination: 45% emissions
cuts by 2030 on the way to a carbon neutral world
by 2050
• Paris Agreement 2015 – historic turning point
• Universal agreement under the umbrella of the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change
• December 2018 at the UN Climate Change Conference
COP24 in Poland, governments set to agree the
implementation guidelines of the Paris Agreement,
thereby unleashing its full potential
• As of November 2018, 184 states and European Union
have joined the agreement
• UN Secretary-General António Guterres brought world leaders, from government, finance, business, and civil
society to the Climate Action Summit on 23 September
2019
What are some of the intergovernmental conventions and actions on CC?
IPCC: Established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
The IPCC is currently in its Sixth Assessment cycle, during which the IPCC will produce the Assessment reports of its three working groups, three special reports, a refinement to the methodology report and the Synthesis report. The Synthesis Report will be the last of the AR6 products, due for release in 2022.
• Working Group I (The Physical Science Basis), Working Group
II (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability), and Working
Group III (Mitigation of Climate Change)
UN Climate Action Summit 2019
September 2019’s Climate Action Summit delivered
important new actions, a surge in climate
momentum, and a clear destination: 45% emissions
cuts by 2030 on the way to a carbon neutral world
by 2050
• Paris Agreement 2015 – historic turning point
• Universal agreement under the umbrella of the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change
• December 2018 at the UN Climate Change Conference
COP24 in Poland, governments set to agree the
implementation guidelines of the Paris Agreement,
thereby unleashing its full potential
• As of November 2018, 184 states and European Union
have joined the agreement
• UN Secretary-General António Guterres brought world leaders, from government, finance, business, and civil
society to the Climate Action Summit on 23 September
2019
How has CC affected TAS?
Tasmanian temperatures have risen since
the 1950s, but at a slower rate than mainland Australia.
There has been a reduction in total annual
rainfall in Tasmania and a change in year-toyear rainfall variability since 1975.
• This reduction has been greatest in autumn,
and is similar to other regions of southern Australia.
CC changes to TAS rainfall?
The changes in seasonal rainfall are much
greater than changes in annual total
rainfall.
• The projections show a steadily emerging
pattern of increased rainfall over the
coastal regions, and reduced rainfall over
central Tasmania and in the north-west of
Tasmania.
• Projected rainfall changes are in line with
our knowledge of Tasmania’s climate
drivers.
- Likely to reduce inflows to catchments used for hydroelectric by 2100.
CC impacts to TAS frost?
- Fewer frost days
Where do we get these climate change
projections?
GCM: Global Circulation Model. A mathematical model of the functioning of the atmosphere, land, and sea.
- Emission scenario: Future projections of greenhouse gas emissions, that make different assumptions about future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change
- Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are four greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectories adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014.[1] It supersedes Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) projections published in 2000.
• Downscaling - Climate Futures Tasmania (CFT)
project provide higher res for TAS-specific info.
=> Stretched-grid global atmospheric downscaling
of the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM)
Where do we get these climate change
projections?
GCM: Global Circulation Model. A mathematical model of the functioning of the atmosphere, land, and sea.
- Emission scenario: Future projections of greenhouse gas emissions, that make different assumptions about future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change
- Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are four greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectories adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014.[1] It supersedes Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) projections published in 2000.
• Downscaling - Climate Futures Tasmania (CFT)
project provide higher res for TAS-specific info.
=> Stretched-grid global atmospheric downscaling
of the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM)
Where do we get these climate change
projections?
GCM: Global Circulation Model. A mathematical model of the functioning of the atmosphere, land, and sea.
- Emission scenario: Future projections of greenhouse gas emissions, that make different assumptions about future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change
- Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are four greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectories adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014.[1] It supersedes Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) projections published in 2000.
• Downscaling - Climate Futures Tasmania (CFT)
project provide higher res for TAS-specific info.
=> Stretched-grid global atmospheric downscaling
of the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM)
• APSIM: input sowing date, soil type, other factors and generate yield data and phenological data.
=> Shows how much of a limiting factor temp and water are for different years.
=> Paddock level predictions.
• Climex-dymex: future impacts of pests and diseases
e.g. suitability of fruit fly to TAS.
