Climate + ag Flashcards
What are the types of cooling and heating?
Heating & Cooling - Transfer of Energy
Heating or cooling takes place when energy is transferred to or from the earth, atmosphere, and oceans.
Three ways through which this can happen:
1. Radiation (every object emits (and absorbs)
electromagnetic radiation)
Cooling on clear cloudless nights
Warm nights with cloudy skies
Greenhouse Effect
2. Convection (physical movement of matter) - localized cooling or heating A pot of boiling water Volcanic eruptions Thunderstorms
- Conduction (transfer by physical contact)
Heat loss through contact with wind (wind chill)
Frost depth in sub-freezing weather - The frost depth is most commonly the depth to which the
groundwater in soil is expected to freeze. The frost depth depends on the climatic conditions of an
area, the heat transfer properties of the soil and adjacent materials, and on nearby heat sources.
Wat are some of the things measured?
What is measured or estimated (agriculture):
• maximum and minimum air temperature
• rainfall
• wind speed and direction - sonic anemometers
• solar radiation
• mean sea level pressure (only in spatial grid data)
• relative humidity at the time of maximum and minimum temperature
• vapour pressure (derived from relative humidity or dewpoint temperature)
• evaporation (two types – class A pan and synthetic pan). Pan combines or integrates the effects of several climate elements: temperature, humidity, rain fall, drought dispersion, solar radiation, and wind
• evapotranspiration (five different options – FAO56, Morton’s actual, Morton’s potential, Morton’s lake, Morton’s wet)
• potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a representation of the environmental demand for evapotranspiration and represents the evapotranspiration rate of a short green crop, completely shading the ground, of uniform height and with adequate water status in the soil profile
How does weather affect ag?
- Rainfall amount and timing – drought, waterlogging
- Temperature - growth
- Frost – kill plants, flowers
- Wind – structural damage
- Affect incidence and severity of pests and diseases
- Evaporation (ET) – reduces available water
- Relative humidity- affects ET
- Solar radiation – energy for photosynthesis
How does climate affect agriculture?
• Development of soils (long term)
• Dictates the types of crops that can be grown
– Why we don’t grow certain crops in certain parts
of the country
• The assumptions that people make about what will
occur and their response
– Drought, flooding, frosts
– Temperature, precipitation
– Levels and patterns
What are the types of risk and uncertainty?
• Predictable
– Likelihood, timing and severity of can be predicted
• e.g. frost impacts on crop yields
• Uncertain, well defined
– Understand the nature of expected events, but cannot predict their magnitude or timing
• e.g. Bushfires, drought, disease outbreaks
• Uncertain, poorly defined
– We can anticipate that surprises will happen, but know nothing about them
• e.g. Fukishima, Titantic, Birdflu, GFC.
Risk management vs uncertainty management?
Risk management – identify risk – develop options to manage • avoid risk • manage consequences – pick best option – make a decision NOW – review and start process again Choice is narrowed to find a best option - STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT
Uncertainty management – defer decisions while seeking new information – reframe the problem – develop no-regret options – create redundancy – provide contingency Choice is expanded to change the nature of the problem - TACTICAL MANAGEMENT
Evidence for climate change?
- IPCC has found…
=> Inc. global av temps, global av sea level, dec. N hem snow cover.
=> widespread melting of snow and ice - WMO has found..
=> inc. levels of all the GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O, sulfur
BOM has found…
- Increasing max temp. trends in Australia
- Average mean temp. anomaly in Aus going from typically 1 degree below to 1 degree above zero.
- Change in rainfall trends across AUS
- Inc. sea surface tempts around AUS
What are some of the intergovernmental conventions and actions on CC?
IPCC: Established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
UN Climate Action Summit 2019
September 2019’s Climate Action Summit delivered
important new actions, a surge in climate
momentum, and a clear destination: 45% emissions
cuts by 2030 on the way to a carbon neutral world
by 2050
• Paris Agreement 2015 – historic turning point
• Universal agreement under the umbrella of the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change
• December 2018 at the UN Climate Change Conference
COP24 in Poland, governments set to agree the
implementation guidelines of the Paris Agreement,
thereby unleashing its full potential
• As of November 2018, 184 states and European Union
have joined the agreement
• UN Secretary-General António Guterres brought world leaders, from government, finance, business, and civil
society to the Climate Action Summit on 23 September
2019
What are some of the intergovernmental conventions and actions on CC?
IPCC: Established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
The IPCC is currently in its Sixth Assessment cycle, during which the IPCC will produce the Assessment reports of its three working groups, three special reports, a refinement to the methodology report and the Synthesis report. The Synthesis Report will be the last of the AR6 products, due for release in 2022.
• Working Group I (The Physical Science Basis), Working Group
II (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability), and Working
Group III (Mitigation of Climate Change)
UN Climate Action Summit 2019
September 2019’s Climate Action Summit delivered
important new actions, a surge in climate
momentum, and a clear destination: 45% emissions
cuts by 2030 on the way to a carbon neutral world
by 2050
• Paris Agreement 2015 – historic turning point
• Universal agreement under the umbrella of the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change
• December 2018 at the UN Climate Change Conference
COP24 in Poland, governments set to agree the
implementation guidelines of the Paris Agreement,
thereby unleashing its full potential
• As of November 2018, 184 states and European Union
have joined the agreement
• UN Secretary-General António Guterres brought world leaders, from government, finance, business, and civil
society to the Climate Action Summit on 23 September
2019
How has CC affected TAS?
Tasmanian temperatures have risen since
the 1950s, but at a slower rate than mainland Australia.
There has been a reduction in total annual
rainfall in Tasmania and a change in year-toyear rainfall variability since 1975.
• This reduction has been greatest in autumn,
and is similar to other regions of southern Australia.
CC changes to TAS rainfall?
The changes in seasonal rainfall are much
greater than changes in annual total
rainfall.
• The projections show a steadily emerging
pattern of increased rainfall over the
coastal regions, and reduced rainfall over
central Tasmania and in the north-west of
Tasmania.
• Projected rainfall changes are in line with
our knowledge of Tasmania’s climate
drivers.
- Likely to reduce inflows to catchments used for hydroelectric by 2100.
CC impacts to TAS frost?
- Fewer frost days
Where do we get these climate change
projections?
GCM: Global Circulation Model. A mathematical model of the functioning of the atmosphere, land, and sea.
- Emission scenario: Future projections of greenhouse gas emissions, that make different assumptions about future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change
- Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are four greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectories adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014.[1] It supersedes Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) projections published in 2000.
• Downscaling - Climate Futures Tasmania (CFT)
project provide higher res for TAS-specific info.
=> Stretched-grid global atmospheric downscaling
of the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM)
Where do we get these climate change
projections?
GCM: Global Circulation Model. A mathematical model of the functioning of the atmosphere, land, and sea.
- Emission scenario: Future projections of greenhouse gas emissions, that make different assumptions about future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change
- Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are four greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectories adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014.[1] It supersedes Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) projections published in 2000.
• Downscaling - Climate Futures Tasmania (CFT)
project provide higher res for TAS-specific info.
=> Stretched-grid global atmospheric downscaling
of the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM)
Where do we get these climate change
projections?
GCM: Global Circulation Model. A mathematical model of the functioning of the atmosphere, land, and sea.
- Emission scenario: Future projections of greenhouse gas emissions, that make different assumptions about future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change
- Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are four greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectories adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014.[1] It supersedes Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) projections published in 2000.
• Downscaling - Climate Futures Tasmania (CFT)
project provide higher res for TAS-specific info.
=> Stretched-grid global atmospheric downscaling
of the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM)
• APSIM: input sowing date, soil type, other factors and generate yield data and phenological data.
=> Shows how much of a limiting factor temp and water are for different years.
=> Paddock level predictions.
• Climex-dymex: future impacts of pests and diseases
e.g. suitability of fruit fly to TAS.
General (non-TAS specific) projected impacts of CC?
Food:
=> Up to 3°: possible rising yields in some high latitude areas
=> Any amount: falling yields in many areas esp developing countries.
=> From 3.5°: falling yields in many developed countries.
Water:
=> Before 2.5°: loss of glaciers
=> From 2°: significant decreases in water availability in many regions.
=> From 4.5°: sea level rise threats major cities.
Ecosystems:
=> From 0.5° Significant damage to coral reefs
=> From 1.5°: rising no. of species extinctions.
Extreme weather events and rising risk of abrupt and irreversible major changes:
=> ANY TEMP
Key issue with impact modelling?
- As scale specifies to a paddock level, often uncertainty increases.
What is adaptation?
• Adaptation. Responses to the changing climate (e.g.,
acclimatization in humans) and policies to minimize
the predicted impacts of climate change (e.g.,
building better coastal defences)
=> Minimizing impacts
=> Over time will need to become more complex/sophisticated e.g. whole farm relocation.
What is mitigation?
• Mitigation. Intervention or policies to reduce the
emissions or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.
(The current international legal mechanism for
countries to reduce their emissions is the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC))
=> Minimizing changes
What are three steps of increasing complexity, cost, and risk of adaptation?
- Varieties, planting, spacing, water, stubble mgmt
- Production chain changes, climate change ready germ plasm. Diversification + risk management.
- Transformation from land use or distribution change. New products like ecosystem services. E.g. Brown Brothers buying up land for vineyards in TAS
Some examples of adaptation in horticulture.
• Diversification
– Crop and variety
– Non-traditional: pomegranates, figs, olives, avocados
• Establishment
– Irrigation and frost protection
• Relocation
– Farmers moving to Tasmania
– Move up/down slope
• Technology
– Smart technologies to increase mgmt intensity
What are some major areas in climate and ag requiring mitigation?
1) Enteric fermentation releases
methane into the atmosphere
when ruminant animals such as
cattle and sheep belch (65% of emissions)
2) Agricultural soils mainly emit nitrous oxide when converting soil nitrogen into nitrate (nitrification) and nitrogen gas (denitrification) (15% of emissions).
3) Savanna burning includes both methane and nitrous oxide emissions that are excessively released into the atmosphere and not able to be re-absorbed by the landscape.
How is ruminant fermentation a case study for climate change mitigation?
Farmgas calculator estimates cattle responsible for the most methane emissions by a large fraction.
- Suggests to run more sheep instead
- Suggests to add supplements to improve cow digestion and reduce belching.
Dietary supplement for beef cattle:
• This technology sounded exciting but would require a thorough cost analysis on this specific farm before implementation
• There would also need to be a clear understanding to how beef consumers would feel about this technology
Changing enterprise structure in order to run more sheep and less cattle:
• The farmer was interested in hearing about how these types of changes can reduce greenhouse gas emissions output. The farmer also understood that this scenario is a general farm management decision and is not likely to be a carbon farming project that could generate credits under a carbon crediting scheme
• Due a wild dog problem in the local area, this scenario would require significant investment in wild dog management before it could be implemented
Tree plantings:
• Some tree plantings have already occurred on this farm and farmer sees a lot of benefits not only for carbon farming but for biodiversity and soil erosion control
• However, tree plantings on this farm are costly to implement due the manual labour required in the establishment phase. For further tree plantings on this
farm, there would need to be more incentives that could offset upfront costs.
How are the poorest the most at risk to CC?
- CC is intensifying ENSO, with most severely affected countries including many developing countries such as Ethiopia, Malawi, PNG, Zimbabwe, Haiti, Guatamala, Honduras
=> Leads to drought, floods, and hunger.
How is Malawi a case study for risks of CC to developing countries?
• Climate Change impacts on the lives of more than 90% of the population
which depends on agriculture, forestry and fishing for their livelihoods.
• Malawi is particularly vulnerable to climate change and variability
because of rain-fed agriculture which drives the economy.
• Irrigation is practiced on less than 10% of the land.
• Observed changes in climate include a shift in the rainfall season, with
later onset and early cessation, as well as increases in the length of the dry
season and reductions in the length of the growing season.
• Expected increases in the frequency and severity of extreme events such as
floods and storms will increase the hazards faced by not only farmers,
foresters and fishermen but the general population.
• In 2015/2016 season the country faced intensive flooding followed by
drought which affected more than 1.1 million people, displaced 336,000
and killed 104 people.
• This led to declaration of disaster for 15 Districts as up to 2.8 million
people are food insecure.
What are some of the 10 best bet innovations for adaptation in agriculture?
Based off 2017 CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).
CCAFS Working Paper no. 215
Based around:
Achieving co-benefits from adaptation in agriculture
Identifying suitable geographies
Timeframes for implementation
Measuring progress towards climate goals
Addressing challenges in implementation
Enabling policy and business environment
Agroforestry to diversify farms and enhance
resilience
- Intensification of extensive parkland systems in the - - Sahel and fertilizer trees across East and Southern Africa, to multi-strata tree-cropping including coffee, cocoa, and rubber and home gardens in more humid
zones, and silvopastoral systems that integrate trees with livestock on rangelands
Stress tolerant varieties to counter climate change
Drought tolerant maize for Africa
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and ISAID
200 varieties released across 13 countries in sub Saharan Africa
Potential gain USD 362 – 590 million yields gains and reduced yield variability
Stress tolerance NOT at the expense of yield
Stress tolerant varieties yield 20% more under stress prone conditions
52,000 metric tonnes of certified improved seed produced – enough to plant 2 million ha by 5.2 million households – impacting 41 M people
Co-benefits:
Nutrition – pro-vitamin A, iron, zinc or quality protein maize
Pest and disease tolerance
Salinized land reclamation
Solar irrigation entrepreneurs
Other case studies involve
Improving small dairy – enhanced incomes and greater climate
resilience – dairy value chain
Alternate wetting and drying as a water saving strategy in rice
production
Digital agriculture – EcoFarmer in Zimabawe – not only provides
crop and livestock farming tips but services such as funeral cover,
index-based crop insurance, daily weather forecasts linked to site
etc. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LoJyniOr9U
Climate informed advisories e.g. Rwanda Climate services for
Agriculture” 50,000 farmers in 14 of the country’s 30 districts
Blended finance – involves the strategic use of development
finance and philanthropic funds to mobilise private sector capital
Weather index based agricultural insurance
Weather index-based insurance is an attractive approach to managing weather and climate risk because it uses a weather index, such as rainfall, to determine payouts and these can be made more quickly and with less argument than is typical for conventional crop insurance.
What is climate smart agriculture?
Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) is defined
as agricultural practices that sustainably
increase productivity and system resilience
while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
CSA helps ensure that climate change
adaptation and mitigation are directly
incorporated into agricultural development
planning and investment strategies.
“Climate-smart agriculture” means building resilience, balancing trade-offs, suiting the context
Climate and ag most general idea?
Agriculture both contributes to climate change and is
affected by climate change.
We need to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions from
agriculture for mitigation and sustainably adapt food-production system to cope with climate change.
