Class 5- Game Theory and War as Bargaining

Question 1

Nash Equilibrium:

Answer 1

no player has an incentive to change their strategy given the strategies chosen by others.

Question 2

Pareto Efficient:

Answer 2

no other outcome to the game would be better for one player without being worse for the other player(s).

*Sometimes some Pareto Efficient outcomes are more desirable than others.

Question 3

War

Answer 3

An event involving the organized use of military force by at least two parties that satises some minimum threshold of severity.

Question 4

Interstate War

Answer 4

A war in which the main participants are states.

Question 5

Civil War

Answer 5

A war in which the main participants are within the same state, such as the government and a rebel group.

Question 6

What Do States Want Out of War?/ What States fight over

Answer 6

1. Territory
2. Policies
3. Regime Type

Question 7

What states fight over: Territory

Answer 7

• Out of 155 wars over the last 3 centuries, over half involved conflicts over territory.
  - Sometimes territory contributes to the wealth of a state (Iran’s southern oil elds)
  - Territory can have military or strategic value (Golan Heights on border between Israel and Syria)
  - Territory can have ethnic, cultural, or historical value (Kashmir)

Question 8

What states fight over: Policies

Answer 8

Some states’ policies harm the interests of other states (Afghanistan support of Al Qaeda)

Question 9

What states fight over: Regime Type

Answer 9

The composition of a country’s government may be viewed as a threat to another country (communist regimes during the Cold War)

Question 10

War is Costly:

Answer 10

1. Loss of human life
   Wars among states in the 20th century led to 40 million deaths directly from combat and tens of millions more deaths owing to war-related hardships.
   Not to mention those injured, displaced from homes and countries, impoverished, and diseased.
2. Economic and Military costs
   - By 2010, the US had spent almost $6.7 trillion fighting 10 wars in its history.
   - In 2010, military expenditures by all countries amounted to about $1.6 trillion
   - Wars in the oil-rich Middle East, including the Iran-Iraq War (1980-88), Persian Gulf War (1990-91), Iraq war (2003-10) disrupted the international economy by raising oil prices.

Question 11

Given that war is costly, why couldn’t states just agree to a peaceful bargain over the object of interest ex ante and avoid the costs of war?

Answer 11

• War As Bargaining

Question 12

War As Bargaining

Answer 12

Bargaining Range Diagram in LEcture 5

Question 13

Take away from War as Bargaining:

Answer 13

• Conflicts of interest are a necessary but not sufficient condition for war to occur.
  - Wars are fought over things: territory, resources, policies, etc.
  - War results in some division of the thing being fought over.
  - Since war is costly, often a peaceful bargain would be strictly preferred to violent conflict
  by both parties ex ante.