Class 10- Civil War

Question 1

Civil War:

Answer 1

an armed confflict that occurs between organized actors within a state which meets some minimal threshold for severity.

Over 1,000 casualties over its course with at least 100 on the side of the government

Question 2

Why do we care about Civil War in IR?

Answer 2

The set of theoretical tools we’ve developed to study interstate wars can be useful for explaining intra-state wars. Impact is usually international

Determinants and effects of civil war rarely conned to single state.
1. Foreign states often intervene:
Civil wars usually spill across boarders- other states often intervene through, military help, resources etc.

2. Spillover effect:
   Neighbors experiences the negative effects- refuges are displaced out of the civil war zone.

Question 3

“Great War Of Africa”

Answer 3

Democratic Republic of the Congo:

1. Hutu-led government ousted from Rwanda, Hutu militants fled to Zaire
2. Militants led cross-border raids from Zaire into Rwanda !
3. Tutsi government of Rwanda armed Tutsi in Zaire v. government
4. Other states (Rwanda, Uganda, Angola) seized the opportunity and supported the rebels
5. Zaire’s government unseated, became DRC
6. New government turned on former allies
7. All told, 25 dierent rebel groups were supported directly or indirectly by 8 dierent countries

Question 4

Why Rebel

Answer 4

Conflict of interest between government and subset of population.

1. “Grievances”
   Repression of language or culture, blocked access to jobs or politics, denied services like health care, education, etc.
2. “Greed”
   Profits from natural resources, access to jobs and government largesse.

Question 5

Revolution (NI)

Answer 5

A kind of civil war

Question 6

Separatism

Answer 6

the desire to create an independent state on territory carved out from an existing state

- South Sudan (from Sudan), East Timor (from Indonesia), Eritrea (from Ethiopia)
- Attempts in Chechnya (from Russia), Confederate States (from USA)

Question 7

Irredentism:

Answer 7

the desire to detach a region from one country and attach it to another, usually because of shared ethnic or religious ties.

Question 8

Types of Conflict

Answer 8

When carving out territory is impractical, rebels can seek to change or seize control of the central government

EX. Civil war in Afghanistan, desire of those loyal to former Taliban regime to reclaim power from US-installed government

Question 9

The Role of Ethnicity

Answer 9

Rebel groups often form on the basis of ethnic and/or religious divisions.

EX. Catholic v. Protestant, Hutu v. Tutsi, Sunni v. Shiite, etc

The presence of ethnic/religious divisions doesn’t necessarily cause conflict.

May help rally natural groups when other conditions are met.?????

Question 10

From Dissatisfaction to Armed Opposition

Answer 10

There are lots of countries with dissatisfyed citizens that do not face civil war.

Question 11

When do dissatised groups mobilize and initiate armed conflict?

Answer 11

Mobilizing is difficult and costly (no standing army of rebels).

Participating is dangerous, collective action problem. Can be overcome with:
- Strong group motivations and ideology
- High levels of trust
- Geographic concentration
- Compensation (blood diamonds in Sierra Leone)

1. Lack of legitimate political options
2. Poverty
3. Obtain resources from foreign countries supporting the rebels’ cause

Question 12

Participating is dangerous, collective action problem. Can be overcome with:

Answer 12

- Strong group motivations and ideology
- High levels of trust
- Geographic concentration
- Compensation (blood diamonds in Sierra Leone)

Question 13

When do dissatised groups mobilize?

1. Lack of legitimate political options

Answer 13

- Democracies offer more access so more alternatives to armed resistance

- However, democracies often have less repressive capacity

Question 14

When do dissatised groups mobilize?
2. Poverty

Answer 14

• Poverty breeds desperation, unemployed young men can be recruited as fighters
  - Rich states have stronger police and military forces, more ability to project authority, so can stifle/deter rebellions

Question 15

When do dissatised groups mobilize?

3. Can obtain resources from foreign countries supporting the rebels’ cause

Answer 15

1. Direct intervention: send forces
2. Indirect intervention: send arms, money, offer training, supply bases abroad
3. May share interests with rebel group
- Could be ethnic kin (Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia)
- Could share ideology with rebels (Cold War movements supporting Communism)
- Could be opposed to standing government
- Could be a PROXY WAR: conflict in which 2 opposing states “fight” by supporting opposite sides in a war (Vietnam, Cambodia)

Question 16

Proxy Wars (NI)

Answer 16

A proxy war or proxy warfare is a war that results when opposing powers use third parties as substitutes for fighting each other directly.

Question 17

Arab Spring

Answer 17

Libya had the most effective and successful armed rebellion.
1. Large country, government had weak grip on eastern regions
2. Strong tribal structure facilitated collective action
3. Rebels were able to seize oil production and exporting facilities
4. Western intervention{ NATO air strikes against
pro-government forces, arms, training
5. US had interest in undermining Qaddafi

Question 18

Arab Spring (NI)

Answer 18

is a term for the revolutionary wave of demonstrations and protests (both non-violent and violent), riots, and civil wars in the Arab world that began on 18 December 2010.

Question 19

Civil War as Bargaining

Answer 19

Once rebels mobilize and become a coherent force, can make demands of government. Peaceful bargains still possible.

Question 20

Bargaining Failure:

Peaceful bargaining fails for the usual reasons:

Answer 20

1) Information asymmetries
2) Commitment problems
3) Indivisibilities

Question 21

Reasons for bargaining failures:

1. Information asymmetries

Answer 21

- Hard to observe capabilities

- Especially true of rebels, covert action, hide in large populations, rugged terrain

Question 22

Reasons for bargaining failures:

2) Commitment problems

Answer 22

1. Weakness of government may be temporary, increased power in future makes commitment difficult

2. Disarming rebels part of agreement, hard to credibly commit to not overtake them once disarmed
- Civil wars rarely end with negotiated peace agreements; end when one side achieves outright military victory.
- Peacekeepers can be useful to monitor and enforce terms of
agreement.

3. Rebels may disagree over terms{ more rebel groups mean more that must agree.
   - Rebellions with more factions tend to generate longer wars.
4. Many potential rebel groups: concessions to one group may encourage others.
   - Russia has over 100 dierent ethnic groups, unwilling to let Chechens have independence for fear others will follow suit.

Question 23

Reasons for bargaining failures:

3) Indivisibilities

Answer 23

The issue under dispute may not be divisible{ independence,

territory with symbolic value.

Question 24

How are Civil Wars fought?

Insurgency:

Answer 24

INSURGENCY:
A military strategy in which small, often lightly armed units engage in hit-and-run attacks against military, government, and civilian targets.

• Aided by large populations to hide in
  - Aided by rugged terrain (mountains, jungle)
  - Try to undermine support of government by attacking military bases, government buildings, population centers
• Makes conventional military response less effective.

Question 25

Counterinsurgency (COIN)

Answer 25

1. Focus on making government’s commitment to defend civilians credible.
2. Protect population centers, patrol with national army and police forces, provide security, avoid accidental civilian death, inject economic resources.
   EX. US espoused this doctrine in Iraq and Afghanistan starting in 2006

Question 26

How to Reduce Civil War:

Focus on economic development and democratization.

Answer 26

Tricky since maybe some repressive governments should be ousted.

** Focus on economic development and democratization.

Still tricky because the road to development and democratization can breed inequality, and democratization can create period of instability which increases the likelihood of civil war

Question 27

Why it is hard to use economic development and democratization to avoid civil war:

Answer 27

The road or process to development can breed inequality, and democratization can create period of instability which increases the likelihood of civil war

• The richest are rich first in this process and that can add to the grievances and the foster the instability that will make Civil War probable