CIP session 1: Intro & Climate Impact Assessment Flashcards
Adaptation
adapting to climate change to avoid its consequences
Mitigation
Preventing CLimate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions
Hazard conditions
- Wind speed
- Surge
- Inundation
- Water shortage, etc.
Direct impacts (immediate):
- Property damage
- Infrastructure damage
- Crop losses
- Evacuation
- Injuries
- Casualties
Indirect impacts (short-run):
- Temporary migration
- Business interruption
- Disrupted trade flows
- Reconstruction
- Mental health problems
- Employment effects
- Temporary (negative) effects economic growth
Indirect impacts (long-term):
- Permanent migration
- Structural change market equilibrium
- Structural change trade flows
- Change to a new (lower) economic growth path
Why climate impact assessments?
Explore intensity of (future) climate impacts
* Changes in the climate system
* Changes in socioeconomic conditions
Inform climate policy: how can impacts be reduced?
* Mitigation
* Adaptation
What is the goal of the IPCC?
IPCC reports synthesize the current literature on climate change. The goal is to provide policymakers with regular assessment of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation.
Working Groups IPCC
Three reports
- the physical science basis
- impacts adaptation and vulnerability
- mitigation of climate change)
–> Missing in cycle is he synthesis report
IPPC uncertainty language
- Confidence levels (agreement in literature, amount and quality of evidence)
- Likelihood is about a certain probability and about how sure we are about these impacts
Components needed for climate impact assessment
Climate and Impact models; impact indicators; socioeconomic and climate scenarios
Climate models (what do they do)
- Depict the climate system using a threedimensional grid over the globe
- Physical processes averaged over larger scales (parameterization)
- Used to simulate response global climate system to increasing GHGs
Impact models (what do they do)
- Simulate the effects of physical events, disasters, and climate change on natural/ human systems
- Represent physical and socioeconomic processes
- Different impact models for different sectors
Sources of uncertainty in climate impact assesments
Input data
* Data scarcity
* Measurement errors
* Representativeness of measurement sites
Process understanding & modelling
* Climate change dynamics/natural complexity
* Deficiencies in our knowledge and models
* Parameterization & parameter estimation
Unknown future
* Societal change/change in values
* Stringency of policies
Climate impact assessment usually consist of two types of scenarios, name these two types and explain how they differ from each other.
- Socioeconomic scenarios: describe future potential socioeconomic developments (like population, gdp, urbanization)
- Climate change scenarios: Describe change in climate system as a result of increased GHG emissions.