Chp30 - Monetary Policy Flashcards
Monetary Policy Objective
- control the quantity of money
- control interest rates
- avoid inflation
- prevent excessive swings in RGDP growth and unemployment
Inflation Rate Targetting
- the task of Central Bank to pick a certain inflation rate and achieve that rate
- Measured via the CPI
- focuses on core inflation (e.g. excludes oil, food)
- Benefits of targeting
- to make clear goals of Central Bank to traders
- provides anchor for expectations about future inflation
Inflation Rate Targeting Controversy
- not everyone believes targeting is helpful
- in targeting inflation , the Central Bank could unintentionally force a recession
- could permit the value of the dollar to rise in foreign markets hurting exports
- However, it is argued that keeping inflation low makes the max contribution to achieving full employment and sustained growth
Monetary Policy Instruments of the Bank of Canada
- The Monetary Base (quantity of money)
- The Exchange Rate
- The Short-Term Interest Rate (the opportunity-cost of holding money)
- The Bank can set any one of these, but not all three
- because changing one effects all the others
Overnight Loans Rate
- The interest rate on overnight loans that big banks make to each other
- This is the interest rate that the BofC targets
- BofC will usually only change it by a 1/4 of a percent
- Achieves the target via: Operating Band, and Open Market Operation
Operating Band
- The target overnight loans rate +-0.25 percentage points
- Created by the Bank Rate, and the Settlement Balances Rate
- Bank Rate: the interest rate the BofC charges on big banks for loans
- the target overnight rate +0.25 percentage points
- Settlement Balances Rate: amount of interest BofC pays to banks on their reserves in the BofC
- the target overnight rate -0.25 percentage points
- Overnight Rate cannot exceed Operating Band because other banks could turn a profit off BofC
Open Market Operation
- determines the actual quantity of reserves in the banking system
Controlling Overnight Rate
- Above target
- buy securities to increase reserves
- increases supply of overnight funds and lowers rate
- Below target
- sells securities to decrease reserves
- decreases supply of overnight funds and raises rate
Ripple Effect of Changing Overnight Loans Rate
- lower Overnight Rate
- short-term interest rate & exchange rate falls
- quantity of money & supply of loanable funds increase
- long-term real interest rate falls
- Consumption Expenditure, Investment, & NX increase
- Aggregate Demand Increases
- RGDP growth and inflation rate increase
- Raise Overnight Rate (vice versa)
Interest Rate Changes
Effect of Changing Overnight Rate
- change in the Overnight Rate effects: 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate and the Long-Term Bond Rate
- 3-Month Treasury Rate: moves fairly close to Overnight Rate
- The Long-Term Bond Rate: higher than other two rates due to increase risk; does not fluctuate as much as the above short-term rates
Exchange Rate Fluctuation
Effect of Changing Overnight Rate
- responds to changes in the interest rate in Canada relative to the interest rates of other countries
- When overnight rate raises, CDN Dollar appreciates (and vice versa)
Monetary and Bank Loan Fluctuation
Effect of Changing Overnight Rate
- rise in overnight rate decreases quantity of money and bank loans (and vice versa)
- change occurs due to: quantity of deposits and loans created by the banking system changes, and the quantity of money demanded changes
Long-Term Real Interest Rate Fluctuations
Effect of Changing Overnight Rate
- Demand and Supply in the loanable funds market determine the long-term real interest rate
- fall in overnight rate increases the supply of loanable funds and lowers the equilibrium real interest rate (and vice versa)
Expenditure Plan Fluctuations
Effect of Changing Overnight Rate
- overnight rate effects: Consumption Expenditure, Investment. Net Exports
- Consumption Expenditure: lower real interest rate = greater CE and lower saving (and vice versa)
- Investment: lower real interest rate = greater investment (and vice versa)
- Net Exports: lower interest rate = lower exchange rate = greater exports and less imports
RGDP and Price Level Fluctuations
Effect of Changing Overnight Rate
- change in aggregate demand results in change in RGDP and price level
Bank of Canada Fighting Recession
- The Market for Bank Reserves
- BofC lowers overnight target rate
- conducts open market operation to increase reserves and hit target rate (shift right in RS curve)
- Money Market
- increase in monetary base increases money supply
- interest rate falls
- quantity of money demanded increases (shift left in MS curve
- The Loanable Funds Market
- increase in supply of loanable funds lowers long-term interest rate in increases investment
- RGDP and Price Level
- Increased planned expenditure increases aggregate demand
- multiplier effect further pushes AD curve
BofC Fights Inflation
- Market for Bank Reserves
- raises overnight interest rate target
- open market sale to decrease reserves and hit target
- Money Market (RS curve shifts left)
- decrease in monetary base decreases supply of money (MS curve shifts left)
- interest rate rises and money demanded decreases
- The Loanable Funds Market
- decrease in supply of loanable funds raises long-term interest rate and decreases investment (SLF curve shifts left)
- RGDP and the Price Level
- Decrease in investment decreases aggregate demand (AD shifts left, further left after multiplier)
Banking Crisis
- Widespread fall in asset prices
- Bank’s equity falls along with this
- Significant Currency Drain
- diminishing reserves result in liquidity crisis
- Run on the Bank
- depositors lose confidence and withdraw deposits
- loss in reserves; selling assets
Policy Action is Response to Banking Crisis
- Open Market Operation
- sale of gov. securities to attack liquidity issue
- Extension of Deposit Insurance
- gives people less incentive to withdraw from bank
- Swap gov. securities for toxic-assets
- attacked liquidity issue
- Gov. buying bank shares
- boosts bank capital and equity; addresses solvency
- Fair Value Accounting
- change in accounting standards; addresses solvency
The Taylor Rule
- formula for setting overnight loans rate
R = 2 + INF + 0.5(INF - 2) + 0.5GAP- R = overnight loans rate
- INF = inflation rate
- GAP = the output gap
- BofC does not use this, believes that they need to take more into account than current inflation