China Flashcards
China’s Population Development - Recent trends
Population declined for the very first time in six decades
- Decline, however, not new to parts of China –> Economically prosperous regions & Tibet: positive rate BUT other parts where declining for some time
- Most populous country for long time but now we are waiting for India to surpass China, Africa as a continent will outrun both by mid century
Chinese fertility development
Unique trajectory with a lot of variation:
- Was still very high in 1950s when Germany just above sustainance but then declines
- 1960s: rebound but then massive decline
- 1980s: Short period of stabilization
- 1990s: decline clear below replacement level = European level
-> result of socio-economic development? Or one-child policy?
Chinese fertility decline from 60s on due to 1-child-policy? or sth else?
It usually takes a lot time to change from 6 to 3 children (see: UK or US, 80+ years) BUT China drastically changed this in just 11 years
+ occurred before one child-policy
-> So, has to be something else: structural changes in society & economy (industrialization)
China’s 1-child policy
1) How it came to be:
1949: Mao Zhedong – “More people, more power.”
1962: Establishment of first family planning commissions at national and provincial levels, following fertility rebound after Great Leap Forward new idea: population might not be best way to gain power (as young people need to be catered to)
1966: Cultural Revolution
1971: “One child isn’t too few, two are just fine, and three are too many.”
1973: “Later, longer, and fewer.” – Later entry into marriage (at age 23-25), longer birth intervals (3+ yrs.), and fewer children (max. two) => technically voluntary, but with coercive elements
1979: Launch of coercive one-child policy, aiming to hold China’s population size to 1.2 billion by the year 2000: Strict population containment considered as essential to economic growth … power more associated with economic and not population growth
China’s 1-child policy
2) Regional variation
Urban couples, especially those living in more-developed eastern regions, as well as the ethnic majority Han population were generally allowed to have only one child - authorities pretty strict about it
Rural couples, especially those living in the less-developed western regions, as well as ethnic minority populations were normally allowed to have two (or even more) children – particularly if the first child was female (preference for sons in China and elsewhere in Asia!)
–> even authoritarian government had so see that in some parts - western regions - it would have been difficult to enforce the policy
China’s 1-child policy
3) Effectiveness
May have mildly accelerated the fertility transition in China
BUT at substantial costs: human rights concerns, a more rapidly aging population, and an imbalanced sex ratio […]
If a country is already experiencing a decline in fertility & processes on the way (modernization, different housing, etc.) –> in such situation a one-child policy doesn’t seem useful
China’s 1-child policy
4) Reversal
From the abandonment of the one -child policy in 2015 ( !) to the announce - ment of a three -child policy just six years later
(Hank: will fail as much as 1-child-policy)
How has Chinese family structure changed?
- Fewer sibling (oviously) but more intergenartional family members
- childlessness, non-marital childbearing, and divorce remain at relatively low levels -> maintaining family lineage and raising children within marriage still important
BUT premarital cohabitation and lifetime singlehood increased (expected to further increase, especially in low educated men and highly educated women => similar to Western societies, the pool is shrinking) - Re-negotiation of intergenerational relations (‘filial piety’: adult children expected to care for elderly parents).
–> Parallels to West but also: Co-existence of rapid modernization (associated with more individualized behaviors) and still strong Confucianism: “changes in family behaviors are neither simultaneous nor sequential”
Development of Chinese mortality
1) Great Leap Forward
launched in 1958, aimed to rapidly increase agricultural & industrial production – but failed & caused a famine killing up to 30 million people by 1961 (among them many infants)
most significant mortality rates:
Development of Chinese mortality (20th)
Relatively long period LE stayed low, but then - from 60s onwards- rose substantially, nowadays very close to European level
-> socio-economic developement + expansion of health care (i.e. barefoot doctors coming to rural areas with basic medical supplies BUT R-U gap remains)
How did China’s health care system develop?
- By 1975 positive picture: coverage of medical insurance provided by the rural cooperative medical system as well as government/state enterprises had reached close to 90% of the population (almost all urban & even 85% rural)
- However, the rural collective health insurance system collapsed in the early 1980s when market reforms were introduced and collective agriculture was abandoned: By 1998, 87 % of the rural population and 44 % of the urban population had no health benefits!
- Since then, new medical care systems for urban workers and rural cooperatives were introduced, reducing the proportions w/out health insurance from 70% in 2003 to 13% (28% urban; 7.5% rural) in 2008
China’s child mortality?
- Declined massively, now ca. on European level
- most spectacular gains in surviavl = child mortality reduction
- not from costly high-tech, but better food & water supply, vaccination, family planning programms
Why is Chinese Covid-19 data difficult?
Simply, does not report covid deaths
How has China’s age structure changed?
- Median Age has risen from 20 (1970) to over 35 (2015)
- Youth dependency rate declines massively (-50% in the last 50 years)
- Old age dependency rate increases - differs widely between regions but in general higher degree of aging in rural settings (i.e. effects of internal migration on regional population aging –> young people move to cities)
Who’s gonna take care of Chinese elders?
Rural: Still taken care by families, not welfare institutions, old people still need to work to survive
Urban: Pension-relied, but family support still plays an enormous role
How has international immigration to China changed?
Substantial increase in international migration (factor of 7) BUT still below 1% –> negative met migration: more people leaving, often for certain period of time, then incoming
