China Flashcards

1
Q

China’s Population Development - Recent trends

A

Population declined for the very first time in six decades

  • Decline, however, not new to parts of China –> Economically prosperous regions & Tibet: positive rate BUT other parts where declining for some time
  • Most populous country for long time but now we are waiting for India to surpass China, Africa as a continent will outrun both by mid century
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2
Q

Chinese fertility development

A

Unique trajectory with a lot of variation:

  • Was still very high in 1950s when Germany just above sustainance but then declines
  • 1960s: rebound but then massive decline
  • 1980s: Short period of stabilization
  • 1990s: decline clear below replacement level = European level

-> result of socio-economic development? Or one-child policy?

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3
Q

Chinese fertility decline from 60s on due to 1-child-policy? or sth else?

A

It usually takes a lot time to change from 6 to 3 children (see: UK or US, 80+ years) BUT China drastically changed this in just 11 years
+ occurred before one child-policy

-> So, has to be something else: structural changes in society & economy (industrialization)

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4
Q

China’s 1-child policy

1) How it came to be:

A

1949: Mao Zhedong – “More people, more power.”

1962: Establishment of first family planning commissions at national and provincial levels, following fertility rebound after Great Leap Forward  new idea: population might not be best way to gain power (as young people need to be catered to)

1966: Cultural Revolution

1971: “One child isn’t too few, two are just fine, and three are too many.”

1973: “Later, longer, and fewer.” – Later entry into marriage (at age 23-25), longer birth intervals (3+ yrs.), and fewer children (max. two) => technically voluntary, but with coercive elements

1979: Launch of coercive one-child policy, aiming to hold China’s population size to 1.2 billion by the year 2000: Strict population containment considered as essential to economic growth … power more associated with economic and not population growth

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5
Q

China’s 1-child policy

2) Regional variation

A

Urban couples, especially those living in more-developed eastern regions, as well as the ethnic majority Han population were generally allowed to have only one child - authorities pretty strict about it

Rural couples, especially those living in the less-developed western regions, as well as ethnic minority populations were normally allowed to have two (or even more) children – particularly if the first child was female (preference for sons in China and elsewhere in Asia!)

–> even authoritarian government had so see that in some parts - western regions - it would have been difficult to enforce the policy

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6
Q

China’s 1-child policy

3) Effectiveness

A

May have mildly accelerated the fertility transition in China
BUT at substantial costs: human rights concerns, a more rapidly aging population, and an imbalanced sex ratio […]

If a country is already experiencing a decline in fertility & processes on the way (modernization, different housing, etc.) –> in such situation a one-child policy doesn’t seem useful

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7
Q

China’s 1-child policy

4) Reversal

A

From the abandonment of the one -child policy in 2015 ( !) to the announce - ment of a three -child policy just six years later
(Hank: will fail as much as 1-child-policy)

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8
Q

How has Chinese family structure changed?

A
  • Fewer sibling (oviously) but more intergenartional family members
  • childlessness, non-marital childbearing, and divorce remain at relatively low levels -> maintaining family lineage and raising children within marriage still important
    BUT premarital cohabitation and lifetime singlehood increased (expected to further increase, especially in low educated men and highly educated women => similar to Western societies, the pool is shrinking)
  • Re-negotiation of intergenerational relations (‘filial piety’: adult children expected to care for elderly parents).

–> Parallels to West but also: Co-existence of rapid modernization (associated with more individualized behaviors) and still strong Confucianism: “changes in family behaviors are neither simultaneous nor sequential”

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9
Q

Development of Chinese mortality

1) Great Leap Forward

A

launched in 1958, aimed to rapidly increase agricultural & industrial production – but failed & caused a famine killing up to 30 million people by 1961 (among them many infants)

most significant mortality rates:

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10
Q

Development of Chinese mortality (20th)

A

Relatively long period LE stayed low, but then - from 60s onwards- rose substantially, nowadays very close to European level

-> socio-economic developement + expansion of health care (i.e. barefoot doctors coming to rural areas with basic medical supplies BUT R-U gap remains)

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11
Q

How did China’s health care system develop?

A
  • By 1975 positive picture: coverage of medical insurance provided by the rural cooperative medical system as well as government/state enterprises had reached close to 90% of the population (almost all urban & even 85% rural)
  • However, the rural collective health insurance system collapsed in the early 1980s when market reforms were introduced and collective agriculture was abandoned: By 1998, 87 % of the rural population and 44 % of the urban population had no health benefits!
  • Since then, new medical care systems for urban workers and rural cooperatives were introduced, reducing the proportions w/out health insurance from 70% in 2003 to 13% (28% urban; 7.5% rural) in 2008
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12
Q

China’s child mortality?

A
  • Declined massively, now ca. on European level
  • most spectacular gains in surviavl = child mortality reduction
  • not from costly high-tech, but better food & water supply, vaccination, family planning programms
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13
Q

Why is Chinese Covid-19 data difficult?

A

Simply, does not report covid deaths

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14
Q

How has China’s age structure changed?

A
  • Median Age has risen from 20 (1970) to over 35 (2015)
  • Youth dependency rate declines massively (-50% in the last 50 years)
  • Old age dependency rate increases - differs widely between regions but in general higher degree of aging in rural settings (i.e. effects of internal migration on regional population aging –> young people move to cities)
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15
Q

Who’s gonna take care of Chinese elders?

A

Rural: Still taken care by families, not welfare institutions, old people still need to work to survive

Urban: Pension-relied, but family support still plays an enormous role

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16
Q

What are some challenges to the traditional system of Chinese elder care?

A
  • Massive decline in higher order birth –> Adult children have fewer siblings to support their parents, resulting from one-child policy
  • Some researchers suggest: Erosion of traditional respect (filial piety) for elders, resulting from younger generations increasing economic power (?)
  • Decline in intergenerational coresidence (important means of intergenerational support) resulting from expansion of urban housing, and
  • Relaxation of residential mobility restrictions, resulting in movement of rural youth to cities
17
Q

How has international immigration to China changed?

A

Substantial increase in international migration (factor of 7) BUT still below 1% –> negative met migration: more people leaving, often for certain period of time, then incoming

18
Q

How has internal migration within China changed?

1) Development

A
  • increased dramatically
  • 3 regions (Changjiang and Pearl River Deltas; Beijing/Tianjin area) receiving 40% of internal migrants! (economic reasons) –> likely to increase further inequalities
  • Many of those: floating population (= left their hometowns seeking work in China’s developing cities, “float and move” meaning that they are not, and generally will not become, a permanently settled group)
19
Q

How has internal migration within China changed?

2) Consequences

A
  • (Growing) internal migration = consequence of regional economic inequality but at the same time drives through re-distribution further regional (economic & demographic) inequalities:
    “The transition from rural to urban (!), and from farming to manufacturing to services, marks fundamental changes in social organization and individual life, with profound implications for the country’s socioeconomic future.” (Cai 2013: 491)
  • Lack of social welfare (medical / old-age insurance) as not really legal internal migrants - not allowed to leave - and social participation in ‘floating’ migrant population
  • About 100 million children affected by internal migration, about 2/3 of which are ‘left-behind’ children – and of these about 1/3 are separated from both parents –> sizeable disadvantages in educational and health outcomes!
20
Q

Take home message: China

A

➢ Even tho India is about to surpass, China is – and remains – a POPULATION GIANT! , compared to Europa - much more important what is happening in China from a global perspective

➢ China’s totalitarian regime had (e.g. Great Leap Forward, 1-child-policy) and has an impact on the country’s demographic development – but even this regime cannot (fully) control, how its population eventually behaves and develops!

➢ Continuity & change: Modernization & tradition may and do co-exist, continuity and change together possible