Chapter 9 Flashcards
UNEMPLOYMENT AND ITS NATURAL RATE
The problem of unemployment is usually divided into two categories:
The long-run problem
The short-run problem
The economy’s natural rate of unemployment refers to the amount of unemployment the economy normally experiences.
UNEMPLOYMENT AND ITS NATURAL RATE
Cyclical unemployment is the year-to-year fluctuations in unemployment around the natural rate.
- It is closely associated with the short-run ups and downs of economic activity.
Identifying Unemployment
How Is Unemployment Measured?
Every month, Statistics Canada (SC) conducts the Labour Force Survey (LFS).
Sample of 54 000 households where data are produced on:
* Unemployment
* Types of employment
* Length of the average workweek
* Duration of unemployment
Identifying Unemployment Part 2
How Is Unemployment Measured?
Statistics Canada places each adult (aged 15 and older) in each surveyed household into one of three categories:
* Employed
* Unemployed
* Not in the labour force
A person is considered employed if they spent some of the previous week working at a paid job.
A person is unemployed if they are on temporary layoff or are looking for a job.
A person who fits neither of the first two categories, such as a full-time student, homemaker, or retiree, is not in the labour force.
Identifying Unemployment: Labour Force
Once the surveyed individuals are categorized, Statistics Canada will compute various statistics to summarize the state of the labour market.
Labour force is the total number of workers, including both the employed and the unemployed.
LF = # of employees + # of unemployed
Identifying Unemployment: Unemplyoment rate and Labour Force Participation Rate
How Is Unemployment Measured?
Unemployment rate is the percentage of the labour force that is unemployed.
U = (# of unemployed / LF) * 100
Labour force participation rate is the percentage of the adult population that is in the labour force.
LFPR = (LF/ Adult Population) * 100
Adult Population = LF + Not in LF
TABLE 9.1 The Labour-Market Experiences of Various Demographic Groups
Table 9.1 compares statistics on unemployment rate and labour force participation rate for two groups in the population: between men and women and between young and old.
Three interesting facts are revealed in these statistics:
* The labour-force participation rate of young women (aged 15–24) is very similar to that of young men, but for other age groups women have noticeably lower rates of labour-force participation than men.
- Young people aged 15 to 24 have much higher rates of unemployment than older people.
- Similarly aged men and women tend to have similar rates of unemployment. Although this third fact has proven to be generally true over time, it is interesting to note that after 2009, the unemployment rate of males has proven to be noticeably higher than the unemployment rate of similarly aged females. This result has prompted some labour economists to label the 2008–09 recession a mancession because it affected the unemployment rates of males more than the unemployment rates of females.
FIGURE 9.3 Labour-Force Participation Rates for Women with Young Children
This figure shows, for Ontario and Québec, the percentage of women with a spouse and one or more children aged 6 years or under who are members of the labour force.
Although participation rates increased in both provinces after 1976, since 1997 they have increased faster in Québec than in Ontario.
The timing of these relative changes is suggestive of the influence on the labour force participation rate of the Québec government providing subsidized childcare beginning in that year.
Identifying Unemployment: Does the Unemployment Rate Measure What We Want It To?
Does the Unemployment Rate Measure What We Want It To?
Because people move into and out of the labour force often, statistics on unemployment can be difficult to interpret.
* Unemployed people who are not trying hard to find a job.
* People calling themselves unemployed in order to receive unemployment insurance.
* People who are officially unemployed but are working “under the table.”
**Discouraged searchers: **are individuals who would like to work but have given up looking for a job.
TABLE 9.2 Alternative Measures of Labour Underutilization
This table shows various measures of joblessness for the Canadian economy. The data are averages for 2020. Figures may fail to sum exactly due to rounding.
Table 9.2 shows the official unemployment rate for Canada as well as several alternative measures of labour underutilization calculated by Statistics Canada.
These alternative measures can paint quite a different picture of the unemployment situation.
% of the Labour Force:
Unemployed 1 to 4 weeks: 3.1%
Unemployed 5 to 13 weeks: 3.0%
Unemployed 14 to 25 weeks: 1.7%
Identifying Unemployment: How Long Are the Unemployed without Work?
Identifying Unemployment: How Long Are the Unemployed without Work?
In 2020, the average spell of unemployment lasted 15.2 weeks.
From Table 9.2:
* One-third of those suffering through a spell of unemployment are unemployed for a month or less.
* Two-thirds are unemployed for less than three months.
Policy solutions directed toward fixing the unemployment problem should be directed at those suffering prolonged spells of unemployment.
In 2020, the average spell of unemployment ranged from a low 12.5 weeks in Québec to a high of 18.2 weeks in Alberta.
Identifying Unemployment: Why Are There Always Some People Unemployed?
Identifying Unemployment: Why Are There Always Some People Unemployed?
There are always workers without jobs, even when the overall economy is doing well.
Natural unemployment rate is the rate of unemployment to which the economy tends to return in the long run.
*6 percent to 7 percent.
Cyclical unemployment is the deviation of unemployment from its natural rate, which explains why the observed unemployment rate differs from the natural rate.
FIGURE 9.5 Observed and Natural Unemployment Rates, 1966–2020
Most economists agree that the natural unemployment rate increased during the 1970s, stabilized at about 8 percent in the 1980s, and has followed a slow downward path since the mid-1990s.
The difference between the observed unemployment rate and the natural unemployment rate is the cyclical unemployment rate.
The recessions in the early 1980s, the early 1990s, and most recently in 2008–09 are identified in this figure by the jump in the observed unemployment rate well above the natural unemployment rate.
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is seen in the large jump in the observed unemployment rate in 2020.
Identifying Unemployment: Why Are There Always Some People Unemployed? Pt 3
Why Are There Always Some People Unemployed?
When the quantity of labour supplied exceeds the quantity demanded this results in structural unemployment.
Structural unemployment results because the number of jobs available in some labour markets is insufficient to provide a job for everyone who wants one.
- This kind of unemployment results when wages are set above the equilibrium level for the following reasons: 1) above-equilibrium wage (minimum-wage laws), 2) unions, and 3) efficiency wages.
Job Search
One reason that economies always experience some unemployment is job search.
**Job search ** the process by which workers find appropriate jobs given their tastes and skills.