chapter 9 Flashcards
Exposure to currency risk can be properly measured by the sensitivities of
1) the future home currency values of the firms assets and liabilities and
2) The firms operating cash flows to random changes in exchange rates.
operating exposure can be defined as
the extent to which the firms operating cash flows would be affected by random changes in exchange rates
the competitive effect
a pound depreciation may affect operating cash flow in pounds by altering the firms competitive position in the marketplace
the conversion effect
a given operating cash flow in pounds will be converted into a lower dollar amount after the pound depreciation
A firms operating exposure is determined by
the structure of the markets in which the firm sources its inputs, suach as labor and materials, and sells its products
the firms ability to mitigate the effect of exchange rate changes by adjusting its markets, product mix, and sourcing
The firm can use the following strategies for managing operating exposure
1) selecting low cost production sites
Flexible sourcing policy
Diversification of the market
Product differentiation and R&D efforts
Financial hedging
Even if hte firm has manufacturing facilities only in the domestic country, it can substantially lessen the effect of exchange rate changes
by sourcing from where input costs are low
flexible sourcing policy
need not be confined just to materials and parts. Firms can also hire low-cost guest workers from foreign countries instead of high-cost domestic workers in order to be competitives
Diversifying the market is
another way of dealing with exchange exposure
Reduced sales in mexico due to the dollar appreciation against the peso can be compensated by increased sales in ermany due to the dollar depreciation against the euro
R&D activities can allow the firm to
maintain and strenthen its competitive position in the face of adverse exchange rate movements
Financial hedging
can be used to stabilize the firms cash flows
For example the firm can lend or borrow foreign currencies on a long term basis. Or the firm can use currency forward or options contracts and roll them over if necessary.
Five step procedure for financial hedging
1) exchange forecasting
2) Assessing strategic plan impact
3) Hedging rationale
4) Financial instruments
5) Hedging program
Exchange forecasting
The first step involves reviewing the likelihood of adverse exchange movements
The treasury staff estimates possible ranges for dollar strength or weakness over the five year planning horizon. In doing so, the major factors expected to influence exchange rates, usch as the US trade deficit, capital flows, the us budget deficit, and government policies regarding exchange rates are considering
Assessing strategic plan impact
once the future exchange rate ranges are estimated, cash flows and earnings are projected and compared under the alternative exchange rate scenarios, such as strong dollar and weak dollar
Deciding whether to hedge
in deciding whether to hedge echange exposure, merck focused on the objective of maximizing long term cash flows and on the potential effect of exchange rate movements on the firms ability to meet its strategic objectives. This focus is ultimately intended to maximize shareholder wealth.
Merck decided to hedge for two main reasons
1) The copany has a large portion of earnings generated oversears while a disproportionate share of costs is incurred in dollars
2) Volatile cash flows can adversely affect the firms ability to implement the strategic plan, especially invetments in R&D that form the basis for future growth.