Chapter 8 - The goal of external stability Flashcards

1
Q

What are the types of international transactions?

A
  • Exports and Imports of goods and services
  • The receipt or payment of debt
  • The receipt or payment of interest on debt
  • The receipt or payment of income for international labour
  • The sale or purchase of equity
  • The receipt or payment of dividends or rent
  • Transfers of money in the form of foreign aid and migrant transfers
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2
Q

What is the Balance of Payments (BOP)?

A

Balance of Payments (BOP): provides a record of the financial transactions between residents of Australia and residents of the rest of world.

The BOP comprises of two major sets of accounts:

  • the current account
  • the capital & financial account

At the end of any particular period, any CA deficit (CAD) must be exactly offset by a CAFA surplus, such that the BOP equals zero. Similarly, a current account surplus needs to be offset by a CAFA deficit.

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3
Q

Outline the structure of the BOP

A

Structure:

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4
Q

What is the ​current account?

A

The Current Account (CA): records all receipts and payments of a ‘current’ nature, as opposed to transactions of a ‘capital’ nature which are recorded in the CAFA. A deficit on the current account means that payments to foreigners (debits) exceed receipts from foreigners (credits). CA is made up of;

  • Balance on Merchandise Trade (BOMT)
  • Net Services
  • Net Primary Income
  • Net Secondary Income
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5
Q

CA - What is the Balance on Merchandise Trade?

A

Balance on Merchandise Trade (BOMT): is made up of merchandise export receipts (credits) minus merchandise import payments (debits), such as the sale of manufactured goods.

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6
Q

CA - What is ​Net Services?

A

Net Services: is made up of services export receipts (credits), such as money received for the provision of education to foreigners, minus services import payments (debits), such as money spent overseas on tourism.

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7
Q

CA - What is Net Primary Income?

A

Net Primary Income: is made up of receipts (credits) of income from holding foreign assets, such as dividends from shareholdings in foreign companies, minus payments (debits) of income to service foreign liabilities, such as interest payments for foreign debt.

Net Primary Income is historically the largest component of the current account and it is the primary reason for the relatively large CAD’s in Australia.

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8
Q

CA - What is ​Net Secondary Income?

A

Net Secondary Income: is made up of receipts (credits) in the form of foreign pensions, gifts or gratuitous payments minus payments (debits), such as foreign aid, gifts, pensions or other gratuitous payments.

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9
Q

​CA - What is the Balance of Goods and Services?

A

BOMT & Net Services together are referred to as the Balance of Goods and Services (BOGS), which has been in deficit for approximately half the last four years.

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10
Q

What is the CAD generally compared to?

A

CAD as a percentage of GDP is the most common statistic referred to when discussing movements in the current account deficit. The highest was in early 2010 at 5.3% (March Quarter) and the lowest was June Quarter 2011 with a CAD of 1.9% of GDP.

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11
Q

What is the Capital Account and Financial Account?

A

The Capital and Financial Account (CAFA):

  • The Capital Account is a relatively insignificant account and covers capital transfers (migrant transfers, debt forgiveness…) and the acquisition/disposal of non-produced, non-financial assets (sale of embassy land or copyrights) between residents and non-residents.
  • The Financial Account is more important in that it effectively records how Australia finances its Current Account Deficits. In other words, national spending (GNE) exceeded national income (GDP) because Australia spent more on imports and foreign liabilities than it received from exports and earnings from foreign assets. It is made up of
    • Official Capital inflow & outflow: Australian Government spending and lending
    • Non-official Capital inflow & outflow: borrowing & lending between Australian and overseas economic agents.
      • Net Direct Investment: purchasing more than 10% of a company (or setting up in Australia)
      • Net Portfolio Investment:​ purchasing less than 10% of a company
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12
Q

What is Australia’s Net International Investment Position?

A

Net International Investment Position (Net IIP): is the value of Australia’s net international liabilities to the rest of the world. This is made up of Australia’s stock of net foreign liabilities (NFL’s), which is comprised of both net foreign debt (NFD) and net foreign equity (NFE).

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13
Q

Net IIP - What is Net Foreign Debt?

A

Net Foreign Debt: is calculated by looking at the net debt obligations that flows from out ‘total borrowings’ from overseas and subtracting our ‘total lending’ to overseas. It is the largest component of NFL (>85%), with the private sector holding more than 72% in September 2014.

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14
Q

Net IIP - What is Net Foreign Equity?

A

Net Foreign Equity (NFE): is equal to the net equity obligations that stem from foreign ownership of Australian assets, such as property and shares minus the Australian ownership of foreign assets.

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15
Q

What is the ​exchange rate?

A

The Exchange Rate is usually measured by the value of the AUD compared to the USD or trade-weighted index (TWI). As the AUD is a floating currency, the value of the exchange rate is primarily determined by the forces of supply and demand.

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16
Q

What is the Trade-Weighted Index?

A

The Trade Weighted Index (TWI) is the average value of the AUD compared to a weighted basket of foreign currencies of Australia’s trading partners.

17
Q

What is the ‘definition’ of external stability?

A

External Stability requires that ‘Australia is able to meet is international financial obligations that results from transactions with the rest of the world, without jeopardising economic growth or other economic goals’. This requires a sustainable CAD and serviceable NFD (or NFL’s).

18
Q

What are the 3 things that will achieve the goal of external stability?

A

Overall, Australia will achieve its goal of external stability if:

  1. The level of the CAD is sustainable (5-6% of GDP)
  2. The level of NFD is serviceable and sustainable (<50-60% of GDP)
  3. The value of the AUD is relatively stable.
19
Q

What is the cyclical vs. structural component of the CAD?

A
  • Cyclical Component of the CAD: is the movement in the CAD that is tied to changes in the economic cycle. A period of strong economic growth generally leads to increases in the CAD.
  • Structural Component of the CAD: remove the cyclical component, the structural CAD exists when the economy is running at is long run trend rate of growth of around ​3% per annum.
20
Q

What are the Types of Protection measures?

A

Types of Protection:

  • Tariff’s: is a tax on imported units of a product and is the most common form of protection. It can be based on % value, or units.
  • Quota: controls the volume of imports entering the country such that local producers are guaranteed a bigger share of the market. While it works by restricting supply of imports, it has a similar impact to tariffs, because it artificially raises the price of relevant imports.
  • Subsidies: involves the government providing local producers with financial or other forms of assistance. It artificially lowers the price of import-competing products but adds to the cost structure of the economy via the effects on taxes.
  • Local Content Rules: require that certain goods and services must contain a specified percentage of Australian Content.
  • Parallel Import Restrictions: protect local producers from imported products by preventing foreign business from producing and selling goods into Australia that are protected by Australian laws.
  • Preferential Treatment: of local producers in government procurement policies provide local producers with a better change of winning a government contract compared to foreign providers of goods and services.
21
Q

Why should we ​protect local producers?

A

Why protect local producers?

The underlying reason for protecting local producers relates to the perceived benefits for domestic production, employment and income.

  • Infant Industries: tariffs are used to protect relatively young Australian industries from low-priced competition until the industry is more developed.
  • Dumping Goods: to counter the effects of dumping, which refers to the practice of selling a good in a foreign market at a price below the cost of production to eliminate competition, offload stock, or because the products production is heavily subsidised in the country of origin
  • Retaliation: generally against the impostition of protective barriers set up in a foreign markets
  • Protect local culture & Identity
  • Long-term Security: by ensuring Australia maintains the capacity to provide itself in the longer term, in terms of essential goods and services
  • Research & Development: to support industries which invest heavily in R&D, whose innovations and advances in technology can be utilised across the economy, thereby providing positive externalities.
  • High Product Standards: to maintain high product standards and prevent the importation of products that threaten local producers with cheap/unsafe products.
22
Q

Why can protection be a self-defeating strategy?

A
  • Protection shields or ‘props up’ relatively inefficient industries at the expense of more efficient industries
  • Protection raises input costs
  • Protection, can therefore, act as a tax on other local producers
  • Protection can contribute to inflationary pressures
  • Protection tends to depreciate the AUD overtime
23
Q

The move towards free trade

A

Local producers ask for protection to protect Australian Jobs. This leads to a destructive process as inefficient local producers become entrenched, raising the cost structure of the Australian economy and increasing the likelihood that foreign governments will retaliate and protect their local producers

24
Q

What is Comparative Advantage?

A

Comparative Advantage: a country should specialise in the production of goods and service which it has a lower ‘opportunity cost’ compared to other countries. Doing this would make all countries better off.

25
Q

What is Trade Liberalisation?

A

Trade Liberalisation is designed to force local businesses to restructure in an effort to combat higher levels of competition and the take advantage of any new opportunities by tapping into export markets.

26
Q

What are aggregate demand and supply factors influencing international transactions?

A
  • Disposable incomes and savings
  • Interest Rates
  • Taxation Rates
  • Government Assistance
  • Exchange Rate
  • Consumer and business confidence
  • Overseas rate of economic growth
  • Terms of Trade (TOT)
  • Productivity
  • Labour Costs
  • Climatic or Geopolitical events
27
Q

What is the Terms of Trade?

A
  • A reflection of demand for our exports relative to imports
  • A ‘index” measure of overall export prices against overall import prices

100 - neutral

>100 - positive for AUS

<100 - negative for AUS