Chapter 6 Flashcards
What are heuristics? (3)
rule of thumb
educated guesses
gut feelings
What situation makes us more mental shortcuts?
under stress
emotions are running high
What is inertia or myopia in investments?
when someone has made a decision, they tend to leave them unchanged
What is status quo bias? (2)
when people stick with their prior choices
especially when its too complex
What is the availability heuristic?
if something comes to mind when asked a question
it must be relevant or important
Give an example of availability heuristic (2)
When someone ask about cause of death
they say what they heard recently in news
What is confirmation bias?
more likely to seek information that confirms existing position
What happens in confirmation bias?
ignore potentially useful information that refutes their preconceptions
What is overreaction bias? (2)
overreact to new information
investments overbought or oversold
How do people try to profit from overreaction?
look for companies that price fell more than should have because of bad news
What is representativeness?
assuming that similarity in one aspect leads to similarity in other aspects
What is herd behaviour?
following each other irrationally
Why does herding happen? (2)
social pressure to conform
decisions less likely to be incorrect if more people make them
what is another term for herd behaviour?
also referred to as a self-fulfilling prophecy
What is anchoring?
fix on an initial value as an unconscious reference point
how to prevent anchoring in investments?
base decisions on fundamentals rather than in relation to the ‘anchor price’
What is overconfidence?
exaggerated view of one’s own abilities and judgement
how does overconfidence apply to investments?
investors overestimate their predictive ability
Example of overconfidence in analysts
slow to revise their previous assessment of a company’s future performance
Example of overconfidence in clients (2)
clients answers to risk questionnaires
might suggest they are more risk tolerant than is true
What is gambler’s fallacy?
failure to appreciate the implications of randomness and probability
Example of gambler’s fallacy in gambling
there is a pattern on outcome of roulette wheel
Example of gambler’s fallacy in investing (2)
mean reversion
performance of asset market will correct itself to long average
What is hindsight bias?
when investor find event to have been entirely predicable after the fact